In late 1941, faced with an embargo on oil and steel, a cornered Japan decided to fight. Japanese bombers crippled the US Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor before seizing the oilfields of South-east Asia. Driven back from the gates of Moscow in the summer of 1942, Hitler's armies made a drive for the oil of Baku, an offensive that would end in cataclysmic defeat at Stalingrad.
Then in 1953, the US backed a coup to remove Iran’s popularly elected prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh, who had nationalised the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, the forerunner of BP. The US imposed quotas limiting its imports of foreign oil, sparking the formation in 1960 of Opec. And until the mid-1970s, the “Seven Sisters” international oil companies dominated the industry, mostly moving their own production through their own refineries with opaque prices.
These events seem like a throwback to an earlier world of colonial empires and autarkic spheres of influence. But as the 1930s showed, globalisation can be reversed, splintering a multinational trading system into blocs.
Oil was among the earliest and most completely globalised industries (gas took longer). Oil was traded internationally almost from the start, as in 1892 Shell shipped Russian oil to the Far East then merged with Royal Dutch, whose fields were in what is now Indonesia.
This globalised market was near-perfected by Soviet gas pipelines to Europe in the 1970s; the 1991 collapse of the USSR itself, opening its petroleum to world markets; the ascent of China to the world’s biggest oil importer during the 21st century’s first decade; and in the past few years the extension of the liquefied natural gas industry led by first Qatar and most recently the US. One of the biggest energy market distortions was removed last year when the US decided to permit crude oil exports.
Beijing sought through the early 2000s to achieve “energy security” by purchasing hydrocarbon fields from Kazakhstan and Sudan to Colombia. But it later gained enough confidence in the international market to rely largely on normal imports and price benchmarks, although backed up with bilateral deals with select countries, notably Venezuela and Angola. It, and India, remain critically dependent on US-patrolled seaways in the Arabian Gulf and Indian Ocean.
Yet this year, antiglobalisation political forces have strengthened. Canada, Australia and the US have all restricted or rejected Chinese energy investment at various times. The probable collapse of American free trade deals with Europe and east Asia has been accompanied by China pushing its own regional pact. A climate-wrecking US may be faced with tariffs from environmentally conscious countries.
Some of today's technological trends also contribute to energy nationalism, as shale production has made North America largely self-sufficient in oil and gas. Rising shares of renewable energy, such as wind and solar power, will largely be consumed in the country, or at best the region, where they are produced.
Most serious is the rise of economically illiterate, far-right antitrade populists, most obviously the Brexiteers in the UK and Donald Trump in the US.
Their ideological complements are the strategic mercantilists, most notably in Beijing and Moscow. Russia has for some years preferred business on a bilateral basis, selling its gas with a heavy dose of politics, though oversupply and EU action has reduced its market power. The US is not immune from this temptation either, particularly in the energy sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran – a useful tool but prone to overuse by short-sighted politicians.
Despite the retreat to economic nationalism and regionalism, it is still too early to mourn the death of globalisation. The technological and institutional forces driving it are strong. But strangulation of the mainly free trade in energy would bring more poverty, suspicion and risk of conflict, not less.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
How to become a Boglehead
Bogleheads follow simple investing philosophies to build their wealth and live better lives. Just follow these steps.
• Spend less than you earn and save the rest. You can do this by earning more, or being frugal. Better still, do both.
• Invest early, invest often. It takes time to grow your wealth on the stock market. The sooner you begin, the better.
• Choose the right level of risk. Don't gamble by investing in get-rich-quick schemes or high-risk plays. Don't play it too safe, either, by leaving long-term savings in cash.
• Diversify. Do not keep all your eggs in one basket. Spread your money between different companies, sectors, markets and asset classes such as bonds and property.
• Keep charges low. The biggest drag on investment performance is all the charges you pay to advisers and active fund managers.
• Keep it simple. Complexity is your enemy. You can build a balanced, diversified portfolio with just a handful of ETFs.
• Forget timing the market. Nobody knows where share prices will go next, so don't try to second-guess them.
• Stick with it. Do not sell up in a market crash. Use the opportunity to invest more at the lower price.
BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
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The 24-man squad:
Goalkeepers: Thibaut Courtois (Chelsea), Simon Mignolet (Liverpool), Koen Casteels (VfL Wolfsburg).
Defenders: Toby Alderweireld (Tottenham), Thomas Meunier (Paris Saint-Germain), Thomas Vermaelen (Barcelona), Jan Vertonghen (Tottenham), Dedryck Boyata (Celtic), Vincent Kompany (Manchester City).
Midfielders: Marouane Fellaini (Manchester United), Axel Witsel (Tianjin Quanjian), Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City), Eden Hazard (Chelsea), Nacer Chadli (West Bromwich Albion), Leander Dendoncker (Anderlecht), Thorgan Hazard (Borussia Moenchengladbach), Youri Tielemans (Monaco), Mousa Dembele (Tottenham Hotspur).
Forwards: Michy Batshuayi (Chelsea/Dortmund), Yannick Carrasco (Dalian Yifang), Adnan Januzaj (Real Sociedad), Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United), Dries Mertens (Napoli).
Standby player: Laurent Ciman (Los Angeles FC).
Donating your hair
• Your hair should be least 30 cms long, as some of the hair is lost during manufacturing of the wigs.
• Clean, dry hair in good condition (no split ends) from any gender, and of any natural colour, is required.
• Straight, wavy, curly, permed or chemically straightened is permitted.
• Dyed hair must be of a natural colour
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
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BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
Jawan
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'Champions'
Director: Manuel Calvo
Stars: Yassir Al Saggaf and Fatima Al Banawi
Rating: 2/5
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Klopp at the Kop
Matches 68; Wins 35; Draws 19; Losses 14; Goals For 133; Goals Against 82
- Eighth place in Premier League in 2015/16
- Runners-up in Europa League in 2016
- Runners-up in League Cup in 2016
- Fourth place in Premier League in 2016/17
RESULTS
Bantamweight: Jalal Al Daaja (JOR) beat Hamza Bougamza (MAR)
Catchweight 67kg: Mohamed El Mesbahi (MAR) beat Fouad Mesdari (ALG)
Lightweight: Abdullah Mohammed Ali (UAE) beat Abdelhak Amhidra (MAR)
Catchweight 73kg: Mosatafa Ibrahim Radi (PAL) beat Yazid Chouchane (ALG)
Middleweight: Yousri Belgaroui (TUN) beat Badreddine Diani (MAR)
Catchweight 78KG: Rashed Dawood (UAE) beat Adnan Bushashy (ALG)
Middleweight: Sallah-Eddine Dekhissi (MAR) beat Abdel Enam (EGY)
Catchweight 65kg: Yanis Ghemmouri (ALG) beat Rachid Hazoume (MAR)
Lightweight: Mohammed Yahya (UAE) beat Azouz Anwar (EGY)
Catchweight 79kg: Souhil Tahiri (ALG) beat Omar Hussein (PAL)
Middleweight: Tarek Suleiman (SYR) beat Laid Zerhouni (ALG)
The five pillars of Islam
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
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