How to get road transport on track to reach net-zero target by 2050?

Despite the recent faster EV adoption, road transport is still nowhere near achieving its carbon neutrality goal

A man recharges his Ola electric scooter in New Delhi, India. Governments in wealthy countries should look for ways to support EV adoption in emerging nations. Reuters

The latest car sales data from China shows a steady acceleration in electric vehicle adoption.

Shipments of passenger EVs more than doubled last month compared to the same period last year. Around a quarter of sales in China so far in 2022 are either fully electric or plug-in hybrids. That rate can probably hold up, leading to some 5.7 million plug-in vehicle sales this year.

So far, the numbers tend to only go in one direction, and that’s up. But here’s a downer to balance things out: despite the recent faster EV adoption, road transport is still nowhere near on track to reach carbon neutrality, or “net zero”, by 2050.

BloombergNEF’s latest Electric Vehicle Outlook shows EV adoption continuing to accelerate in the years ahead, with the fleet rising from 17 million at the end of last year to 228 million by 2030, and more than 700 million by 2040.

Even with all that growth, CO2 emissions from road transport still come in at 4.4 gigatons in 2050 in BNEF's Economic Transition Scenario, which assumes no new policies are implemented. That is down from 6.3 gigatons today — a remarkable achievement given rising global population and wealth — but still a long way from reaching net zero.

So, what will it take to get road transport on track for net zero? Here are five steps:

Get moving on zero-emission heavy trucks

BNEF's outlook grades each segment of road transport on how close it is to reaching net zero by 2050. Buses and two/three wheelers, for example, are almost on track. Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are on a positive trajectory, but still need some additional policy support, especially in emerging economies. Heavy trucks are nowhere near net zero and are set to account for a growing share of road transport emissions. Urgent action is needed to get the market for zero-emission trucks moving. The most important factor will be more stringent truck emissions policies and potentially quotas like California has introduced in its Advanced Clean Trucks regulation. A big push is also needed on megawatt-scale charging infrastructure, and potentially hydrogen refuelling stations for some difficult-to-electrify long-haul routes.

Close the EV adoption gap

Close the EV adoption gap between wealthy and emerging economies. The current trajectory suggests a two-tiered global auto market is emerging and that the benefits of electrification could accrue very unevenly. New-vehicle sales in wealthy countries are set to go mostly electric in the next decade, while those in emerging economies lag far behind. Air quality in cities is already markedly worse in poorer nations, and this issue will complicate further if the EV adoption gap isn't addressed. Cost-competitive EVs will make this much easier, but it still takes time to build adoption, and turning over the fleet is a slow process.

Support emerging nations

BNEF's outlook shows emerging economies accounting for 59 per cent of global combustion-vehicle sales by 2040, up from 29 per cent today. Governments in wealthy countries should look for ways to support EV adoption in emerging nations and help jumpstart the market, otherwise the transition will not be an equitable one.

It's time to build

There are two big areas that require substantial investment as the EV market scales: charging infrastructure and battery supply chains. Both will need to see major development to prevent them from holding back EV adoption in the decades ahead. Governments should look to streamline permitting processes where possible, while industry participants should commit to supply-chain transparency to ensure consumers are confident in what they are buying.

Look beyond the drivetrain

Even a modest 10 per cent reduction in distance travelled by car globally by 2050 yields major benefits and makes the journey to net zero much easier. Investments in public transport and better infrastructure to support cycling and walking can all play a role. This will help improve local air quality and drive down CO2 emissions, while also reducing strain on the battery supply chain. Still, it's important to recognise that even with those measures, the world will need a lot of EVs to achieve net zero by mid-century. The case of the Netherlands is illustrative here. The country is densely populated, wealthy, flat, temperate and invests heavily in cycling. Even there, bicycles account for only about 8 per cent of distance travelled (although their share of trips is much higher at 25 per cent), while cars cover 69 per cent. Countries should continue to push for changes to achieve climate targets.

Concurrent decarbonisation of power sector

EVs have lower lifetime CO2 emissions than comparable internal combustion vehicles today but realising the full benefit will require concurrent decarbonisation of the electricity system. In BNEF's analysis, transport emissions will drop by another gigaton in 2050 if all those EVs are powered by renewables. Fortunately, the transition to a low-carbon power system is already well under way.