Prices can only go up for so long before they must drop, property investor Savills said in regards to Hong Kong's real estate market. Dale de la Rey / AFP
Prices can only go up for so long before they must drop, property investor Savills said in regards to Hong Kong's real estate market. Dale de la Rey / AFP

Hong Kong property market too risky, says Savills



Hong Kong’s sky-high prices and low affordability rank it as one of the riskiest property markets for Savills Investment Management, which is avoiding the city in favor of Japan and Australia.

“Hong Kong is highly, highly expensive,” Kiran Patel, who helps manage US$18 billion as chief investment officer at Savills Investment, said in an interview in Singapore. “Even with the lowest cost of capital, it is hard to justify today. We don’t think you can keep going up one year after another.”

Hong Kong’s home prices keep soaring higher, climbing 11 per cent since the start of the year to continue a nine-year bull run. Commercial property prices in the city have also set a slew of records this year. Li Ka-Shing’s CK Asset Holdings sold its 75 per cent holding in The Centre for HK$40.2bn ($5.15bn), a record for a Hong Kong office tower, according to reports earlier this month, while a carpark in the Central district slated for redevelopment fetched HK$23.3bn earlier this year.

Hong Kong was ranked the least affordable city to buy a home, according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index. Real incomes have virtually stagnated in Hong Kong for many years, so housing is less affordable than in any other city surveyed and the average living space per person amounts to only 14 square metres, the UBS report said.

______________

Read more:

______________

Savills last year sold out of a residential development joint venture in Hong Kong after cost overruns and planning delays, Mr Patel said. The investment yielded an internal rate-of-return of just 7 per cent, instead of the expected 20 per cent, he said.

While Singapore is more attractive than Hong Kong, both markets have tight supply and are very volatile, Patel said. Still, he is scouting for offices in Singapore as leasing is picking up and the market seems to be bottoming out. Savills sold a couple of Singapore office assets last year as the fund investing in them was maturing, he said.

Japan remains Savills’ most attractive market, given tight property supply and cash flowing into the system, Patel said. Savills also likes Australian property as the economy remains robust and offers stable annuity income.

“We would like to grow in Asia, but there is an abundance of capital and a shortage of assets,” Patel said. “We don’t want to shoot the lights out, we aren’t in the high end opportunistic-risk space. We are looking more for annuity type income so we focus on developed markets like Japan and Australia and some emerging markets like China.”

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Airev
Started: September 2023
Founder: Muhammad Khalid
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: Generative AI
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
 
COMPANY PROFILE

Company: Bidzi

● Started: 2024

● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid

● Based: Dubai, UAE

● Industry: M&A

● Funding size: Bootstrapped

● No of employees: Nine

Our legal consultant

Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
AL%20BOOM
%3Cp%20style%3D%22text-align%3Ajustify%3B%22%3E%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3BDirector%3AAssad%20Al%20Waslati%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%20style%3D%22text-align%3Ajustify%3B%22%3E%0DStarring%3A%20Omar%20Al%20Mulla%2C%20Badr%20Hakami%20and%20Rehab%20Al%20Attar%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20ADtv%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RACECARD

4.30pm Jebel Jais – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (Turf) 1,000m
5pm: Jabel Faya – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (T) 1,000m
5.30pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m
6pm: The President’s Cup Prep – Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club – Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m
7pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m
7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m

UAE SQUAD

Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan

Moon Music

Artist: Coldplay

Label: Parlophone/Atlantic

Number of tracks: 10

Rating: 3/5

Tree of Hell

Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla

Director: Raed Zeno

Rating: 4/5

FIGHT CARD

 

1.           Featherweight 66kg

Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)

2.           Lightweight 70kg

Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)

3.           Welterweight 77kg

Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)

4.           Lightweight 70kg

Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)

5.           Featherweight 66kg

Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)

6.           Catchweight 85kg

Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)

7.           Featherweight 66kg

Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)

8.           Catchweight 73kg

Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Abdipatta Abdizhali (KGZ)

9.           Featherweight 66kg

Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)

10.         Catchweight 90kg

Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)

Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now

There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:

1. Rising US interest rates

The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.

Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”

At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.

2. Stronger dollar

High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.” 

3. Global trade war

Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”

4. Eurozone uncertainty

Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”

The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”


On The Money

Make money work for you with news and expert analysis

      By signing up, I agree to The National's privacy policy
      On The Money