Brian Pepper is one of hundreds of property developers faced with the new realities of building in the Emirates. With no off-plan sales to help construction begin and little bank lending to sustain it, developers like him are being forced to work together and allow buyers to move their deposits while scaling back the ambitious plans of a year ago.
The Irishman launched three towers at the Marmooka City development, located off Emirates Road in Ajman. Now he can build only two, as the scheme that was slated for 204 towers looks more likely to actually have just 20 buildings. He says banks remain unwilling to fill the financing vacuum created by the demise of off-plan sales.
"In Ajman there was never bank finance. But if Ajman Bank gave finance, the whole of Emirates Road would come out of the ground," he says.
When property prices started to tumble just over a year ago, thousands of investors started to miss their payments, putting many property developers out of business and forcing others to dramatically scale back their projects. About US$24 billion (Dh88.15bn) worth of residential projects have been cancelled across Dubai, according to Proleads, a market intelligence company.
In Ajman, only one quarter of the proposed towers have been registered with the property regulator of the emirate.
"We are in for a dramatic change in how property financing will be done," says Michael von Uffelen, the head of corporate finance at Arqaam Capital, a regional investment bank.
As banks seek to reduce their exposure to the property market, both private and commercial lending have been squeezed. That is causing problems for developers trying to raise funds to complete their projects and for end-users looking for mortgages to buy homes.
"Before, you could just build speculatively and they [investors] would come. But now? We need a new [financing] paradigm but we don't have it yet," says Simon Hersom, the regional managing director of property finance at Royal Bank of Scotland.
Many analysts believe that until the balance between demand and supply is back and private buyers are again willing to commit funds, other players must step in to fill the gap. They are likely to include distress funds, private equity groups and sovereign wealth funds.
"Para-statal entities have to come in more strongly. So do alternative investment vehicles, private equity funds and investment companies," says Jamal al Kishi, the chief executive officer at Deutsche Securities in Saudi Arabia.
Now that the speculators have retreated from the market, demand is being driven by end-users and long-term investors.
While there is a general dearth of deals, some say that international private equity investors are becoming more open to the idea of investing in the region's property industry as valuations become more attractive.
"We're sourcing most of our finance for developers from America. Some banks and private equity funds in the US are prepared to consider funding projects in Dubai, but it is very hard work," says Jonathan Bridges, a mortgage consultant at Global Eye.
Several private equity houses are considering property development funds in the Gulf. But for now, such structures remain undeveloped and funds in the region are mostly closed-ended with a relatively short duration of between three and five years. This compares with long-term vehicles out of the US or Singapore, which are often listed on stock exchanges and open-ended.
Rasmala Investments, a regional investment bank which is based in Dubai, is looking at several projects in Saudi Arabia, says Eric Swats, a partner at the firm. Rasmala is considering setting up funds with developers where it invests its own money plus that of third parties to help developers raise equity, or simply cash. The developer, who typically contributes the land, also ends up with shares in the fund.
Banks, however, might remain on the sidelines. While they were rarely the main financiers of property developments in Dubai, even during the boom years, they often provided short-term loans. Now, few of them are able to play even that marginal role because of a continuing liquidity squeeze.
Bank lending in the Emirates fell by about 86 per cent in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period last year., the Central Bank has reported.
But given the importance of mortgage lending, banks will eventually come back to property financing, experts say.
"The provision of land and building stock for mortgages is a core provision for banks," says Mr Hersom. "It makes sense to finance a block of apartments."
Banks generally like mortgage financing because it spreads the risk.
Mortgage financing is still a relatively young industry in the region and only one in five home purchases was financed by a mortgage last year. Nevertheless, analysts say it is crucial to revive the industry. For that to happen, lending rates must fall and major participants such as Amlak and Tamweel, which have not done any new lending since November, must get back to business.
Banks may also demand different types of collateral and more rigorous cash flow forecasts in the form of long-term leases.
"Before, banks used projections, they did not care about the cash flow but only about assets. Now the developers must demonstrate an income stream," says Mr von Uffelen.
But that is easier to achieve in the office market, where tenants are used to signing long leases than in the residential market where leases run a year or less.
"We are dealing with a number of clients in the real-estate space who are trying to generate a product which can generate long-term leases," says Mr von Uffelen.
Central Park, the latest project by Deyaar, a developer based in Dubai, is a case in point. Instead of pre-selling offices in its 45-storey commercial tower located in the Dubai International Financial Centre, it is looking to commit clients to medium to long-term leases.
While local lenders may still be absorbing the impact of the unfolding crisis within the property industry, many international banks and investors have more experience of riding the peaks and troughs of the famously cyclical industry. As a result, they may be the first to return to the market.
Some other sources of funding have emerged. "High-net worth individuals, many from abroad, are pitching in where developers need cash to finish projects," says Nicholas Maclean, the managing director at CB Richard Ellis, a property consultant.
That will help some projects reach completion, while the ongoing consolidation in the market may help other developers such as Mr Pepper finish their towers.
"If nobody panics, the crisis can be worked through. Too much arrived in too short of a time, but the underlying demand is there," says Mr Hersom.
@Email:uharnischfeger@thenational.ae
* additional reporting by Nathalie Gillet
KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
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One in four Americans don't plan to retire
Nearly a quarter of Americans say they never plan to retire, according to a poll that suggests a disconnection between individuals' retirement plans and the realities of ageing in the workforce.
Experts say illness, injury, layoffs and caregiving responsibilities often force older workers to leave their jobs sooner than they'd like.
According to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research, 23 per cent of workers, including nearly two in 10 of those over 50, don't expect to stop working. Roughly another quarter of Americans say they will continue working beyond their 65th birthday.
According to government data, about one in five people 65 and older was working or actively looking for a job in June. The study surveyed 1,423 adults in February this year.
For many, money has a lot to do with the decision to keep working.
"The average retirement age that we see in the data has gone up a little bit, but it hasn't gone up that much," says Anqi Chen, assistant director of savings research at the Centre for Retirement Research at Boston College. "So people have to live in retirement much longer, and they may not have enough assets to support themselves in retirement."
When asked how financially comfortable they feel about retirement, 14 per cent of Americans under the age of 50 and 29 per cent over 50 say they feel extremely or very prepared, according to the poll. About another four in 10 older adults say they do feel somewhat prepared, while just about one-third feel unprepared.
"One of the things about thinking about never retiring is that you didn't save a whole lot of money," says Ronni Bennett, 78, who was pushed out of her job as a New York City-based website editor at 63.
She searched for work in the immediate aftermath of her layoff, a process she describes as akin to "banging my head against a wall." Finding Manhattan too expensive without a steady stream of income, she eventually moved to Portland, Maine. A few years later, she moved again, to Lake Oswego, Oregon. "Sometimes I fantasise that if I win the lottery, I'd go back to New York," says Ms Bennett.
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Huddersfield Town permanent signings:
- Steve Mounie (striker): signed from Montpellier for £11 million
- Tom Ince (winger): signed from Derby County for £7.7m
- Aaron Mooy (midfielder): signed from Manchester City for £7.7m
- Laurent Depoitre (striker): signed from Porto for £3.4m
- Scott Malone (defender): signed from Fulham for £3.3m
- Zanka (defender): signed from Copenhagen for £2.3m
- Elias Kachunga (winger): signed for Ingolstadt for £1.1m
- Danny WIlliams (midfielder): signed from Reading on a free transfer
Ibrahim's play list
Completed an electrical diploma at the Adnoc Technical Institute
Works as a public relations officer with Adnoc
Apart from the piano, he plays the accordion, oud and guitar
His favourite composer is Johann Sebastian Bach
Also enjoys listening to Mozart
Likes all genres of music including Arabic music and jazz
Enjoys rock groups Scorpions and Metallica
Other musicians he likes are Syrian-American pianist Malek Jandali and Lebanese oud player Rabih Abou Khalil
Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
- Manifest cargo
- Excess luggage in the hold
- Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
Source: Pawsome Pets UAE
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MATCH INFO
Alaves 1 (Perez 65' pen)
Real Madrid 2 (Ramos 52', Carvajal 69')
The specs
Engine 60kwh FWD
Battery Rimac 120kwh Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2) chemistry
Power 204hp Torque 360Nm
Price, base / as tested Dh174,500
Info
What: 11th edition of the Mubadala World Tennis Championship
When: December 27-29, 2018
Confirmed: men: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, Hyeon Chung, Karen Khachanov; women: Venus Williams
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae, Virgin megastores or call 800 86 823
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Wayne Rooney's career
Everton (2002-2004)
- Appearances: 48
- Goals: 17
Manchester United (2004-2017)
- Appearances: 496
- Goals: 253
England (2003-)
- Appearances: 119
- Goals: 53
The biog
Fatima Al Darmaki is an Emirati widow with three children
She has received 46 certificates of appreciation and excellence throughout her career
She won the 'ideal mother' category at the Minister of Interior Awards for Excellence
Her favourite food is Harees, a slow-cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled wheat berries mixed with chicken
RESULTS
Bantamweight:
Zia Mashwani (PAK) bt Chris Corton (PHI)
Super lightweight:
Flavio Serafin (BRA) bt Mohammad Al Khatib (JOR)
Super lightweight:
Dwight Brooks (USA) bt Alex Nacfur (BRA)
Bantamweight:
Tariq Ismail (CAN) bt Jalal Al Daaja (JOR)
Featherweight:
Abdullatip Magomedov (RUS) bt Sulaiman Al Modhyan (KUW)
Middleweight:
Mohammad Fakhreddine (LEB) bt Christofer Silva (BRA)
Middleweight:
Rustam Chsiev (RUS) bt Tarek Suleiman (SYR)
Welterweight:
Khamzat Chimaev (SWE) bt Mzwandile Hlongwa (RSA)
Lightweight:
Alex Martinez (CAN) bt Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR)
Welterweight:
Jarrah Al Selawi (JOR) bt Abdoul Abdouraguimov (FRA)
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Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.
Fixture and table
UAE finals day: Friday, April 13 at Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
- 3pm, UAE Conference: Dubai Tigers v Sharjah Wanderers
- 6.30pm, UAE Premiership: Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership – final standings
- Dubai Exiles
- Abu Dhabi Harlequins
- Jebel Ali Dragons
- Dubai Hurricanes
- Dubai Sports City Eagles
- Abu Dhabi Saracens
Honeymoonish
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Company%20Profile
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Manchester United v Liverpool
Premier League, kick off 7.30pm (UAE)
Results
ATP Dubai Championships on Monday (x indicates seed):
First round
Roger Federer (SUI x2) bt Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 6-4, 3-6, 6-1
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) bt Thomas Fabbiano (ITA) 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Marton Fucsovics (HUN) bt Damir Dzumhur (BIH) 6-1, 7-6 (7/5)
Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) bt Karen Khachanov (RUS x4) 6-4, 6-1
Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) bt Milos Raonic (CAN x7) 6-4, 5-7, 6-4
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich 1
Kimmich (27')
Real Madrid 2
Marcelo (43'), Asensio (56')
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: Dh898,000
On sale: now
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Five healthy carbs and how to eat them
Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand
Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat
Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar
Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices
Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants
Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique
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