Emaar's property sales could hit $5.8bn in 2021

The company is set to post its highest annual sales in 10 years as the market recovers from pandemic, EFG Hermes says

Emaar Development’s property sales are estimated to reach Dh95bn over the next five years. Lee Hoagland/The National

Property sales at Emaar Development, the company behind the world's tallest tower Burj Khalifa and Downtown Dubai district, could hit Dh21.5 billion ($5.85bn), as activity picks up in the UAE’s real estate market amid a broader economic recovery, a note from EFG Hermes said.

The development arm of Dubai's biggest listed developer Emaar Properties is poised to record the highest amount of sales in 10 years, the report added.

“ED’s business model has proven resilient amidst the challenges posed since the 2009 real estate crash in the emirate,” the report said.

The company “managed to adapt to all such challenges with its strong balance sheet, backing of its parent company [Emaar Properties], market positioning and unique product mix,” it said.

The UAE's property market, which softened after a three-year oil price slump that began in 2014 and subsequent oversupply concerns, is showing signs of a revival as end users look to upgrade to larger spaces amid a rise in remote working and learning due to the pandemic.

Economic support measures and government initiatives, including visas for expatriate retirees, remote workers and the expansion of the 10-year golden visa scheme, have also helped to improve sentiment.

The company’s total sales in the next five years are estimated to reach Dh95bn and over the coming 23 years, will touch Dh425bn, the report said. Property sales in 2022 and 2023 are estimated to reach Dh21.5bn and Dh17.7bn, respectively.

“Although sales in Dubai Creek will contribute the most to the total development portfolio, given the size of the projects, we highlight that sales over the coming five years are more evenly scattered between projects in the company’s portfolio,” EFG Hermes said.

Emaar is developing a number of new projects along Dubai Creek to boost its residential portfolio including Creek Edge and Creek Palace and The Cove.

“The general pick-up in the global real estate market and increase in cross-border investments in the local property market are encouraging factors that support demand in the short term, despite concerns over an oversupplied market,” EFG Hermes said.

Emaar Development is expected to post a net revenue of Dh14.1bn in 2021 while its net income will reach Dh2.7bn, the report said.

Emaar Properties recorded sales worth Dh16.48bn in the first half of this year, up 229 per cent compared with the same period in 2020, the company said on August 11.

Residential transactions in Dubai hit an eight-year high in the first half of 2021 amid renewed demand and improving economic activity.

Total transactions in the six months to the end of June surged 69.2 per cent, compared with the same period in 2020, according to CBRE Research. Compared with the same period in 2019, 2021 total transactions jumped 46.4 per cent, CBRE Research said.

Average home prices during the period jumped an annual 2.8 per cent, largely driven by villa prices.

Dubai also recorded the highest level of rental growth in the first six months of the year, alongside other cities such as Moscow and Miami, consultancy Savills said in report last month.

Prime rental prices in the emirate climbed 5 per cent between January and June, driven by a 20 per cent increase in rents across certain villa communities, it said.