On the outside looking in at the IMF



When Liaquat Ahamed, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Lords of Finance – the story of the financial Armageddon that precipitated the Great Depression – accompanied the economists of the IMF to Dublin, he was surprised by the lack of hostility he encountered.

When countries are in trouble, the IMF will consider bailing them out – at a price. “Conditionality” is the fund’s term for the strings that are attached to loan programmes: austerity, cuts in social welfare, tax rises, privatisations and, an especial fund favourite, the end of subsidies on food, fuel and other staples.

So Ahamed was surprised by the even-handedness of an Irish immigration official he met in Dublin airport. The Irish, he inferred from this encounter, broadly accepted that responsibility for the country’s financial crisis lay with Fianna Fáil and Anglo-Irish Bank, and that the IMF was only trying to help.

Ahamed's new book Money and Tough Love is part primer on the IMF and part ethnography. Despite his impressive journalistic and analytical chops, Ahamed stays away from an attempt to interpret the institution, preferring simply to describe what he saw on his trips.

Except that Ahamed has not really been granted access to the inner sanctum of high finance. He is excluded from meetings where matters of substance are discussed, is given an audience with Christine Lagarde, who decides simply that he is not “a troublemaker”, and directly quotes no one from the fund. This means the book has lots of incidental detail, but much less meat.

Ahamed visited Tokyo in 2012, where he spent a week people-watching in the lobby of the Imperial Hotel, and in the fray at the Tokyo International Forum, the conference centre where the IMF’s annual jamboree took place.

He then followed fund managers to Dublin and Maputo, the capital of Mozambique, where he finds a local “mission” he thinks is more in touch with local politics and society than elsewhere. The mission remains quarantined to the local five star hotel “where fund missions always stay”. When an IMF recommendation to cut subsidies causes riots, staff are instructed not to go outside.

Ahamed remains in his hotel.

q&a men in suits talk money

Technically, it’s a picture book, isn’t it?

The publisher, Visual Editions, has previously been responsible for some truly beautiful books: chief among them its life-changing edition of Tristram Shandy, which is among the most wonderfully designed objects in literature. Visual Editions hired the photographer Eli Reed, a professor of photojournalism at the University of Texas, to accompany Ahamed. Mr Reed has produced some striking images from unpromising source material. The IMF houses a lot of men in suits.

Where are the best photos from?

Mr Reed clearly enjoys himself more when he gets to Mozambique, which is a more interesting visual setting than impromptu conference spaces with bar charts projected on to the walls. Christine Lagarde, on the book’s cover, contrasts pleasantly with the sea of suits surrounding her.

Is Ahamed right about the IMF?

The IMF, Ahamed insists, is like a doctor prescribing medicine to its patients: if it isn’t hurting, it isn’t working. Economically minded readers will be disappointed by Ahamed’s repeated claims that the IMF is like a doctor administering medicine to its patients. But in medicine, treatments are evaluated in terms of whether they have worked before. In economics, remedies are thought sensible if they feature in academic economics journals, whose editors are often more fond of elegant mathematical proofs than empirical evidence. If the metaphor of the IMF as a wise doctor, treating the patient with painful or invasive procedures proves apt, many would accuse it of violating the Hippocratic oath.

abouyamourn@thenational.ae

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The Perfect Couple

Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor

Creator: Jenna Lamia

Rating: 3/5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Liverpool’s fixtures until end of 2019

Saturday, November 30, Brighton (h)

Wednesday, December 4, Everton (h)

Saturday, December 7, Bournemouth (a)

Tuesday, December 10, Salzburg (a) CL

Saturday, December 14, Watford (h)

Tuesday, December 17, Aston Villa (a) League Cup

Wednesday, December 18, Club World Cup in Qatar

Saturday, December 21, Club World Cup in Qatar

Thursday, December 26, Leicester (a)

Sunday, December 29, Wolves (h)

The biog

Name: Marie Byrne

Nationality: Irish

Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption

Book: Seagull by Jonathan Livingston

Life lesson: A person is not old until regret takes the place of their dreams

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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989

Director: Goran Hugo Olsson

Rating: 5/5

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The Travel Diaries of Albert Einstein The Far East, Palestine, and Spain, 1922 – 1923
Editor Ze’ev Rosenkranz
​​​​​​​Princeton

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Score

Third Test, Day 2

New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)

Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings

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Brief scoreline:

Tottenham 1

Son 78'

Manchester City 0

First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus 

'My Son'

Director: Christian Carion

Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis

Rating: 2/5