South Sudanese men read newspapers in Juba. One of the top priorities for the new country will be the development of its oil industry. Phil Moore / AFP
South Sudanese men read newspapers in Juba. One of the top priorities for the new country will be the development of its oil industry. Phil Moore / AFP

Now the hard work begins for South Sudan



The world's newest country celebrated yesterday as heads of state flew in to offer congratulations and southern Sudanese rode through the capital Juba's streets in triumph.

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Back to business

But South Sudan, born yesterday after half a century of civil war, has a long way to go in developing the industry that accounts for 98 per cent of its revenues and will be its economic lifeline: oil.

It pumps just under 500,000 barrels of crude a day, setting it among the ranks of the world's top oil producers, and Garang Diing Akuong, the energy minister, has set a target of doubling production within the next three years.

To reach that goal - or even maintain today's production levels - South Sudan must overcome a host of challenges, from a lack of infrastructure to this year's failure to reach a revenue-sharing agreement with its northern neighbour. Here are the first steps to growing the industry that has fuelled the rise of nations from Norway to the UAE:

Find new partners

China National Petroleum and Malaysia's Petronas dominated the Sudanese oil industry while it was walled off from Western investment by sanctions.

An experienced oil negotiator would give Juba better footing to secure new foreign partners to bring the advanced technology needed to draw oil from fields.

Analysts say some fields have been damaged from aggressive pumping as the north prepared for a break-up.

Chevron of the US helped to lead the development of Sudanese oil infrastructure for two decades, starting in the 1970s, after George Bush opened up Sudan in his role as the US ambassador to the UN. Now the industry is watching to see if Chevron or other Western companies that have been prevented from investing because of US sanctions will come in.

"This is the billion-dollar question," said Dan Large, a Sudan oil specialist at the University of London's School of Oriental and African Studies.

"There's been lots of speculation that the south will tear up existing contracts and invite the Americans back in.

"They were pretty dominant before they left, and people still remember them."

Build human capacity

South Sudan will have to educate a generation of citizens to take the reins of the industry if it is to pursue long-term job creation.

Norway and foreign oil companies, including CNPC and Petronas, have made some steps in transferring knowledge. But the work needs to move faster.

"It has to very quickly develop a pool of capable people so that they can service the contracts and know what's going on," said Egbert Wesselink, who works with the government in Juba as the coordinator of the European Coalition on Oil in Sudan. "They will be dependent on consultants for the first few years."

Bolster security

France's Total has sat on a substantial southern concession for years, but has been wary of drilling there amid concerns over security for foreign workers. The spectre of renewed fighting between Khartoum and Juba is not the only problem.

Independent militias in Sudan's fractured political scene have threatened to attack industry infrastructure, and last month the Darfur-linked rebel group Justice and Equality Movement attacked an airport used by oil firms in the town of Heglig.

Analysts say Sudan's border region, dubbed "the new south", could be the next flashpoint.

Go local

South Sudan leaders place their hopes in a proposed second pipeline running 1,400km from Juba to the Kenyan coast. But a project over such challenging terrain and such a long distance would require an optimistic investor.

"Any talk about a southern oil pipeline is a pipe dream," said Mr Large. "It's simply not economically viable or technically feasible. It'd be a political decision to bankroll."

A cheaper plan would be to transport crude to a proposed refinery on Uganda's Lake Albert. Trucks would then transport oil products to the coast.

Be realistic

Mr Akuong has also said the new country could pump 1 million barrels per day in the next three years.

But since Sudanese oil production hit a peak in 2006, it has plateaued, and South Sudan will need to direct investment not only towards the oil industry but also basic infrastructure, from roads to telephone lines.

"Sudan has a very long history of oil exploration and a very short history of production … and unfortunately an all too long history of very entrenched conflict," Mr Large said.

"There are many examples of a flourishing oil industry with conflict. It goes to show that even if you have full-blown civil war you can still continue to pump oil."

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Analysis

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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