Chinese workers stitch teddy bears, at the PP Bear Toy Company located in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen.
Chinese workers stitch teddy bears, at the PP Bear Toy Company located in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen.

No fun for toy makers



Pursuit of recovery after global downturn Challenges include problems with quality, higher yuan and growing foreign competition Daniel Bardsley Foreign Correspondent When the global economic downturn hit in late 2008, surviving in the Chinese toy industry became anything but child's play. China's toy sector may have grown that year by 1.8 per cent to US$8.6 billion (Dh31.58bn), as the country's ministry of commerce reported, but this was thanks to brisk sales in the earlier months. By the end of the year, exports had tailed off severely.

Government figures showed that about one third of the approximately 3,000 toy-exporting companies in China's southern manufacturing province of Guangdong went out of business that year. The global slump could not have come at a worse time: the sector was already reeling from safety scandals. Millions of toys had been recalled because of issues such as excessive lead content in paint. On top of that, stricter overseas safety standards meant many producers had to reconfigure production, and the price of many raw materials had increased.

Last year, while the industry began to recover globally, there were signs that China was still struggling. Worldwide toy sales grew nearly 4 per cent last year to $80bn compared with 2008, but China's toy exports, which dominate the world market, dropped about 10 per cent. Manufacturers are hopeful that things might improve by the end of this year. In an interview at the beginning of the year, Wong Tit Shing, the chairman of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council's toys advisory committee, said he believed "the worst is over".

The indications from the first half of this year are that Mr Wong was right. According to figures from the market research company NPD Group, revenues from Europe's five largest toy markets, the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, were up 5 per cent from January to June, although in the world's largest toy market, the US, sales were flat. China's manufacturers are hoping for better sales in the key production period from August to November.

Overall it appears that toy safety standards in China are improving, or can at least be maintained by the watchfulness of buyers, says Klas Elm, a vice president of the International Council of Toy Industries and the managing director of the Swedish Toy Association. "The competence and quality is much better in China, and the standard of production is rising as well," he says. "Pretty much you get what you pay for, and as an importer or buyer from this part of the world, you have to be very thorough and very well skilled to get what you want and to be able to see that you get the right quality."

But there are also signs that quality remains a problem, despite the damaging publicity the Chinese toy industry received in recent years. Less than two months ago, the Consumers Association of Singapore revealed that nearly half of 50 toys, all or most of them thought to be Chinese-made, on which it commissioned tests contained high levels of lead or phthalates, potentially toxic substances that make plastics more flexible and durable. Some contained high levels of both substances, and 10 per cent were found to be a choking hazard because of easily detachable parts.

The industry is nonetheless being urged by the authorities to be more ambitious in the face of international competition. The purchase this year by Guangdong Alpha Animation and Cultureof a major stake in a cartoon company suggests the industry is making greater efforts to secure control of all levels of the value chain. Many challenges remain for China's toy industry, including the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar and increases in labour costs.

But the sector has one immense factor in its favour: a vast and growing home market. Some analysts have estimated domestic toy sales to be an average of just over $19 on each of China's estimated 300 million children. Others put the spending at a mere $7 per child. A comparison with developed markets such as Australia and Japan, where the average annual spending on toys per child has been reported at more than $400, indicates China's domestic toy sales will grow considerably if the economy continues its robust expansion. Even without a recovery in exports, China's toy factories are likely to be kept busy in the coming years.

Things Heard & Seen

Directed by: Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini

Starring: Amanda Seyfried, James Norton

2/5

2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups

Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.

Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.

Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.

Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.

Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.

Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.

Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.

Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.

What should do investors do now?

What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor? 

Should I be euphoric?

No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.

So what happened?

It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.

"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."

Should I buy? Should I sell?

Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.

"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.

All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.

Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.

Will the rally last?

No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.

"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."

The specs
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder

Transmission: CVT auto

Power: 181bhp

Torque: 244Nm

Price: Dh122,900 

The biog

Name: Salvador Toriano Jr

Age: 59

From: Laguna, The Philippines

Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips

Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.

SCHEDULE

December 8: UAE v USA (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)

December 9: USA v Scotland (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)

December 11: UAE v Scotland (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)

December 12: UAE v USA (ICC Academy Oval 1)

December 14: USA v Scotland (ICC Academy Oval 1)

December 15: UAE v Scotland (ICC Academy Oval 1)

All matches start at 10am

 

FFP EXPLAINED

What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.

What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.

What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.

The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont

Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950

Engine 3.6-litre V6

Gearbox Eight-speed automatic

Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm

Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm

Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

SQUADS

India
Virat Kohli (captain), Rohit Sharma (vice-captain), Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinkya Rahane, Manish Pandey, Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Mahendra Singh Dhoni (wicketkeeper), Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Shardul Thakur

New Zealand
Kane Williamson (captain), Martin Guptill, Colin Munro, Ross Taylor, Tom Latham (wicketkeeper), Henry Nicholls, Ish Sodhi, George Worker, Glenn Phillips, Matt Henry, Colin de Grandhomme, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Adam Milne, Trent Boult

Fixtures

50-over match

UAE v Lancashire, starts at 10am

Champion County match

MCC v Surrey, four-day match, starting on Sunday, March 24, play starts at 10am

Both matches are at ICC Academy, Dubai Sports City. Admission is free.

25-MAN SQUAD

Goalkeepers: Francis Uzoho, Ikechukwu Ezenwa, Daniel Akpeyi
Defenders: Olaoluwa Aina, Abdullahi Shehu, Chidozie Awaziem, William Ekong, Leon Balogun, Kenneth Omeruo, Jamilu Collins, Semi Ajayi 
Midfielders: John Obi Mikel, Wilfred Ndidi, Oghenekaro Etebo, John Ogu
Forwards: Ahmed Musa, Victor Osimhen, Moses Simon, Henry Onyekuru, Odion Ighalo, Alexander Iwobi, Samuel Kalu, Paul Onuachu, Kelechi Iheanacho, Samuel Chukwueze 

On Standby: Theophilus Afelokhai, Bryan Idowu, Ikouwem Utin, Mikel Agu, Junior Ajayi, Valentine Ozornwafor

2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
  • Parasite – 4
  • 1917– 3
  • Ford v Ferrari – 2
  • Joker – 2
  • Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood – 2
  • American Factory – 1
  • Bombshell – 1
  • Hair Love – 1
  • Jojo Rabbit – 1
  • Judy – 1
  • Little Women – 1
  • Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
  • Marriage Story – 1
  • Rocketman – 1
  • The Neighbors' Window – 1
  • Toy Story 4 – 1
ABU DHABI ORDER OF PLAY

Starting at 10am:

Daria Kasatkina v Qiang Wang

Veronika Kudermetova v Annet Kontaveit (10)

Maria Sakkari (9) v Anastasia Potapova

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Ons Jabeur (15)

Donna Vekic (16) v Bernarda Pera 

Ekaterina Alexandrova v Zarina Diyas

The%20Iron%20Claw
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sean%20Durkin%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zac%20Efron%2C%20Jeremy%20Allen%20White%2C%20Harris%20Dickinson%2C%20Maura%20Tierney%2C%20Holt%20McCallany%2C%20Lily%20James%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
World Cup League Two

Results

Oman beat Nepal by 18 runs

Oman beat United States by six wickets

Nepal beat United States by 35 runs

Oman beat Nepal by eight wickets

 

Fixtures

Tuesday, Oman v United States

Wednesday, Nepal v United States

 

BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES

Saturday (UAE kick-off times)

Cologne v Union Berlin (5.30pm)

Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm)

Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)

Paderborn v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)

Wolfsburg v Freiburg (5.30pm)

Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach (8.30pm)

Sunday

Mainz v Augsburg (5.30pm)

Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen (8pm)

Results

ATP Dubai Championships on Monday (x indicates seed):

First round
Roger Federer (SUI x2) bt Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 6-4, 3-6, 6-1
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) bt Thomas Fabbiano (ITA) 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Marton Fucsovics (HUN) bt Damir Dzumhur (BIH) 6-1, 7-6 (7/5)
Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) bt Karen Khachanov (RUS x4) 6-4, 6-1
Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) bt Milos Raonic (CAN x7) 6-4, 5-7, 6-4

RESULT

Huddersfield Town 2 Manchester United 1
Huddersfield: Mooy (28'), Depoitre (33')
Manchester United: Rashford (78')

 

Man of the Match: Aaron Mooy (Huddersfield Town)

How tumultuous protests grew
  • A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
  • Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved 
  • Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
  • At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
  • Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars 
  • Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
  • An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital 

Engine: 80 kWh four-wheel-drive

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 402bhp

Torque: 760Nm

Price: From Dh280,000

How Islam's view of posthumous transplant surgery changed

Transplants from the deceased have been carried out in hospitals across the globe for decades, but in some countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, the practise was banned until relatively recently.

Opinion has been divided as to whether organ donations from a deceased person is permissible in Islam.

The body is viewed as sacred, during and after death, thus prohibiting cremation and tattoos.

One school of thought viewed the removal of organs after death as equally impermissible.

That view has largely changed, and among scholars and indeed many in society, to be seen as permissible to save another life.

Meydan Racecourse racecard:

6.30pm: The Madjani Stakes Listed (PA) | Dh175,000 1,900m

7.05pm: Maiden for 2-year-old fillies (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m

7.40pm: The Dubai Creek Mile Listed (TB) Dh265,000 1,600m

8.15pm: Maiden for 2-year-old colts (TB) Dh165,000 1,600m

8.50pm: The Entisar Listed (TB) Dh265,000 2,000m

9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 1,200m

10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 1,600m.