The gold price hit a seven-month low of $1,238 an ounce last week before returning to $1,260.  Randi Sokoloff / The National
The gold price hit a seven-month low of $1,238 an ounce last week before returning to $1,260.  Randi Sokoloff / The National

Buying gold and dumping stocks is a no-brainer this summer



Last week was a heart-stopper for gold bugs when prices plunged briefly to a seven-month low of $1,238 an ounce before bouncing back to $1,260.

But if this trading pattern seems familiar to summer deck chair investors, then you are quite right. In the same week last year, gold hit rock bottom and then rallied $150 in the next two months. A spike lower is also typical of a market bottom.

Gold has basically been stuck in a sideways trading channel for the past five years. That’s a long time for any asset class to be stuck on the road to nowhere.

Needless to say US stocks have outperformed by a mile. The S&P 500 is up 70 per cent in those years.

It’s not really good enough to blame the strong US dollar this year for gold’s weak performance. Gold also under-performed in the previous two years when the greenback was weakening, although it did finally break out of a downtrend and consolidate sideways in a trading range.

A far more important factor has been the increasing attraction of risk-on markets like the US stock market as the economic recovery from the 2008 to 2009 global economic crisis has picked up pace; latterly the enthusiasm for US President Donald Trump’s tax cuts and repatriation of profits and even cryptocurrencies as a rival speculative asset.

However, every dog has its day and there is a growing school of analysts who think US equities are overdue for a correction after a very long bull market, if not a full-on crash, as soon as this autumn, with October the traditional month for such events.

The signs of a faltering global economic recovery have been flagged up recently by the International Monetary Fund. World stock market indices are already sharply down for 2017, and even the US markets have been struggling to maintain all-time highs amid greatly increased volatility this year.

Chinese stocks have undergone a 20 per cent correction, with the world’s third largest economy after the US and EU faltering under the weight of its own bad debts, years of over-expansion and now the start of Mr Trump’s trade war last Friday.

So I suppose the big question for gold bugs, after surviving another difficult week, is whether a US stock market correction might provide a big boost for precious metals this autumn? To my mind there has never been a better time to sell US shares and buy bullion, nor a more obvious winning strategy.

The global financial crisis was at first a curse and then a blessing for gold. Initially bullion prices were pulled down as the Titanic hit the iceberg. But then over the following 18 months precious metals rallied the most of any major asset class.

Would it be the same story again? History does repeat itself. But nobody really expects a repeat of the crisis. Even long-standing bears like Marc Faber don’t consider a major economic crash at all likely.

Therefore, gold forecasters presently point to more recent episodes of US stock market weakness as a guide to what might happen.

______

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For example, when the Dow Jones dropped 2,000 points at the start of 2016 gold rallied hard, though not enough to break out of the trading range mentioned earlier.

In the first quarter of 2016, inflows into gold exchange-traded funds did jump by the second highest ever, still some way short of the highest-ever inflow in the first quarter of 2009 when the S&P 500 hit the devil’s bottom of 666 that March.

Indeed, if you are looking for the cheapest hedge against a stock market correction this year, then one ranking of the alternatives recently put gold in first position ahead of cash and US treasuries. Some of the smartest money is doing just that.

Precious metals analyst Theodore Butler wrote earlier this month about how the biggest bullion bank JP Morgan has established a very large long position in gold and silver by double-crossing other commercial gold traders into thinking it was time to short gold.

It’s very complicated to understand such machinations in the gold futures market. But Mr Butler is always well-informed and his conclusion straightforward: "I believe JP Morgan’s pronounced buyback of short positions portends a very sharp price rally for gold and silver and other metals," he said.

If the world’s largest bullion bank is positioned ready for higher gold prices, and has taken advantage of the summer doldrums to do so - possibly also creating those doldrums in the opinion of Mr Butler and his acolytes, then perhaps we should all be doing the same thing.

Seasonal trading in precious metals is important, and don’t forget the Indian religious buying season also comes in autumn.

The really big question is how gold will perform when it gets out of its five-year funk, assuming that it does not plunge into oblivion.

Forecasters talking about $5,000 or $10,000 an ounce have been very thin on the ground recently, another classic contrarian sign of a market bottom with all the bulls throwing in the towel.

And yet last year we saw Bitcoin unexpectedly rocket from around $1,000 to $20,000 in the second half. Could gold confound the skeptics and do the same thing this year?

Consensus wisdom, not surprisingly, thinks a trade war and a credit crunch this autumn will cause a further flight to the US dollar, yen and Swiss franc. That would be bad for gold.

But there is a contrarian view that higher interest rates will still be running far behind rising global inflation - trade wars are inflationary - and that is definitely a gold positive scenario.

Moreover, treasury yields have actually been falling since mid-May, so much for the theory about trade wars and higher interest rates. Russia dumped half its US treasuries in April, so will the world’s largest gold consumer China be next?

Plus, if US stock markets do have a major correction then gold’s spectacular out-performance after the global financial crisis from 2000 to 2011 will be remembered.

In summary, gold is right out of favour this summer. If you think the global economy can cope with the Fed’s higher interest rates and a trade war and a US stock market correction this autumn without a recession, then gold prices may go lower.

But seasonal gold cycles and a massively over-valued US stock market suggest there are still golden times ahead for the precious metal as shares, bonds and even real estate collapse. Any contrarian investor ought to be a buyer of the cheapest hedge against a financial market crash right now.

Peter Cooper has been writing about finance in the Gulf for more than 20 years

Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale

Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni

Director: Amith Krishnan

Rating: 3.5/5

Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode

Directors: Raj & DK

Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon

Rating: 4/5

Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 4/5
SPECS

Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now

Cricket World Cup League 2

UAE squad

Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind

Fixtures

Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE

Singham Again

Director: Rohit Shetty

Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone

Rating: 3/5

Company%20profile
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The five pillars of Islam
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Rating: 2/5
 
ENGLAND%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EFor%20Euro%202024%20qualifers%20away%20to%20Malta%20on%20June%2016%20and%20at%20home%20to%20North%20Macedonia%20on%20June%2019%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EGoalkeepers%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Johnstone%2C%20Pickford%2C%20Ramsdale.%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDefenders%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alexander-Arnold%2C%20Dunk%2C%20Guehi%2C%20Maguire%2C%20%20Mings%2C%20Shaw%2C%20Stones%2C%20Trippier%2C%20Walker.%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMidfielders%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bellingham%2C%20Eze%2C%20Gallagher%2C%20Henderson%2C%20%20Maddison%2C%20Phillips%2C%20Rice.%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EForwards%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFoden%2C%20Grealish%2C%20Kane%2C%20Rashford%2C%20Saka%2C%20Wilson.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Disclaimer

Director: Alfonso Cuaron 

Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville 

Rating: 4/5

Racecard:
2.30pm: Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoun Emirates Breeders Society Challenge; Conditions (PA); Dh40,000; 1,600m
3pm: Handicap; Dh80,000; 1,800m
3.30pm: Jebel Ali Mile Prep Rated Conditions; Dh110,000; 1,600m
4pm: Handicap; Dh95,000; 1,950m
4.30pm: Maiden; Dh65,000; 1,400m
5pm: Handicap; Dh85,000; 1,200m

Rashid & Rajab

Director: Mohammed Saeed Harib

Stars: Shadi Alfons,  Marwan Abdullah, Doaa Mostafa Ragab 

Two stars out of five 

TOP%2010%20MOST%20POLLUTED%20CITIES
%3Cp%3E1.%20Bhiwadi%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Ghaziabad%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Hotan%2C%20China%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Delhi%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Jaunpur%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E6.%20Faisalabad%2C%20Pakistan%0D%3Cbr%3E7.%20Noida%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E8.%20Bahawalpur%2C%20Pakistan%0D%3Cbr%3E9.%20Peshawar%2C%20Pakistan%0D%3Cbr%3E10.%20Bagpat%2C%20India%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20IQAir%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
A cryptocurrency primer for beginners

Cryptocurrency Investing  for Dummies – by Kiana Danial 

There are several primers for investing in cryptocurrencies available online, including e-books written by people whose credentials fall apart on the second page of your preferred search engine. 

Ms Danial is a finance coach and former currency analyst who writes for Nasdaq. Her broad-strokes primer (2019) breaks down investing in cryptocurrency into baby steps, while explaining the terms and technologies involved.

Although cryptocurrencies are a fast evolving world, this  book offers a good insight into the game as well as providing some basic tips, strategies and warning signs.

Begin your cryptocurrency journey here. 

Available at Magrudy’s , Dh104 

Specs%3A%202024%20McLaren%20Artura%20Spider
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%20and%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20700hp%20at%207%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20720Nm%20at%202%2C250rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330kph%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh1.14%20million%20(%24311%2C000)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
HUNGARIAN GRAND PRIX RESULT

1. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 1:39:46.713
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 00:00.908
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes-GP 00:12.462
4. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-GP 00:12.885
5. Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing 00:13.276
6. Fernando Alonso, McLaren 01:11.223
7. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 1 lap
8. Sergio Perez, Force India 1 lap
9. Esteban Ocon, Force India  1 lap
10. Stoffel Vandoorne, McLaren 1 lap
11. Daniil Kvyat, Toro Rosso 1 lap
12. Jolyon Palmer, Renault 1 lap
13. Kevin Magnussen, Haas 1 lap
14. Lance Stroll, Williams 1 lap
15. Pascal Wehrlein, Sauber 2 laps
16. Marcus Ericsson, Sauber 2 laps
17r. Nico Huelkenberg, Renault 3 laps
r. Paul Di Resta, Williams 10 laps
r. Romain Grosjean, Haas 50 laps
r. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull Racing 70 laps

Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes. 
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com

The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer

Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000

Engine 3.6L V6

Transmission: Six-speed automatic

Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm

Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm

Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km

Asia Cup 2018 Qualifier

Sunday's results:

  • UAE beat Malaysia by eight wickets
  • Nepal beat Singapore by four wickets
  • Oman v Hong Kong, no result

Tuesday fixtures:

  • Malaysia v Singapore
  • UAE v Oman
  • Nepal v Hong Kong
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Pakistan v New Zealand Test series

Pakistan: Sarfraz (c), Hafeez, Imam, Azhar, Sohail, Shafiq, Azam, Saad, Yasir, Asif, Abbas, Hassan, Afridi, Ashraf, Hamza

New Zealand: Williamson (c), Blundell, Boult, De Grandhomme, Henry, Latham, Nicholls, Ajaz, Raval, Sodhi, Somerville, Southee, Taylor, Wagner

Umpires: Bruce Oxerford (AUS) and Ian Gould (ENG); TV umpire: Paul Reiffel (AUS); Match referee: David Boon (AUS)

Tickets and schedule: Entry is free for all spectators. Gates open at 9am. Play commences at 10am

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

Like a Fading Shadow

Antonio Muñoz Molina

Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez

Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)


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