At Barclays Wealth, we believe that local-currency government debt is an attractive way to capitalise on the improving sovereign credit outlook and robust growth potential of what we call the Emerging Asia countries.
Prospective returns are supported by generally higher bond yields than in more developed countries and expected currency gains through the region.
Therefore, we suggest buying medium-term emerging-Asia government bonds, in local currencies, directly and with your currency risks unhedged.
Emerging Asia, which we define as China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand, was resilient during the recent crisis, leading the global economic recovery in both the timing and magnitude of its rebound. The region's growth was also robust prior to the crisis, expanding at a much faster pace than its "developed" peers.
In the coming years, demographics, among many other factors, are expected to support this positive growth differential.
The region entered the most recent economic emergency in a position of strength, as the countries' respective governments have extensively improved their macroeconomic policies since the economic crisis of 1997-98.
Our research shows that Emerging Asia sits on surplus funds, debt ratios are falling and foreign reserves are high - indeed, all of these indicators compare favourably with more advanced economies.
Reflecting the improved credit-worthiness of Emerging Asia governments, sovereign rating actions were positive last year and spreads have narrowed considerably from their peak. Given the solid and improving outlook, positive rating actions are likely to continue, which should drive spreads lower.
Further tightening will also be dependent on supportive technical factors.
For example, historical data show that government bond markets in the region have matured considerably, boasting extended term structures and improved liquidity.
In an environment in which US, Japanese and European yields are extremely low, Emerging Asia credits - government bonds included - are likely to benefit from incremental asset allocation. Hence, foreign capital inflows to the region have risen and should continue to do so.
We consider local currency government bonds to be the most attractive way to take advantage of the improving sovereign credit outlook in Emerging Asia.
These bonds closely reflect domestic macroeconomic policies where returns are supported by potential currency gains and high carry. From an asset allocation perspective, local currency emerging market bonds also offer diversification.
Although the move towards new policy standards should help Emerging Asia currencies when interest rates eventually rise, rate normalisation poses a risk to the market value of longer-dated bonds.
We prefer shorter-dated bonds, specifically those maturing in the medium term. We also recommend buying such local currency government bonds directly and with the currency risks unhedged. In cases where access to local government bond markets is restricted for certain investors, bond funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may be a good "second best" implementation.
Within Emerging Asia, Indonesian government bonds currently offer the highest yield to maturity, and we believe this additional yield provides more than adequate compensation for the additional credit risk of buying the nation's debt.
The country has achieved political stability after the elections in 2009 and the central bank has gained further credibility.
The country's banking system is sound and many economic indicators such as fiscal and debt dynamics are improving.
For these reasons, we deem that Indonesia is making good progress towards achieving investment-grade status - Indonesia is currently rated two notches below investment grade by Moody's and S&P, and is only an upgrade away from investment grade on Fitch's rating metrics.
Emerging Asia has been resilient in the recent crisis, leading the global recovery in both timing and magnitude.
Sovereign rating actions were positive last year and spreads over US Treasuries have narrowed considerably from their peak, reflecting the improved credit-worthiness of these countries and local-currency government bonds seem to be the most attractive way to take advantage of improving credit outlook.
Khurram Jafree is the head of MENA investment advisory for Barclays Wealth.
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Company%20Profile
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More coverage from the Future Forum
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Third-place play-off: New Zealand v Wales, Friday, 1pm
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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It's Monty Python's Crashing Rocket Circus
To the theme tune of the famous zany British comedy TV show, SpaceX has shown exactly what can go wrong when you try to land a rocket.
The two minute video posted on YouTube is a compilation of crashes and explosion as the company, created by billionaire Elon Musk, refined the technique of reusable space flight.
SpaceX is able to land its rockets on land once they have completed the first stage of their mission, and is able to resuse them multiple times - a first for space flight.
But as the video, How Not to Land an Orbital Rocket Booster, demonstrates, it was a case if you fail, try and try again.
Tomb%20Raider%20I%E2%80%93III%20Remastered
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Aspyr%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Aspyr%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20series%20X%2FS%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Moral education needed in a 'rapidly changing world'
Moral education lessons for young people is needed in a rapidly changing world, the head of the programme said.
Alanood Al Kaabi, head of programmes at the Education Affairs Office of the Crown Price Court - Abu Dhabi, said: "The Crown Price Court is fully behind this initiative and have already seen the curriculum succeed in empowering young people and providing them with the necessary tools to succeed in building the future of the nation at all levels.
"Moral education touches on every aspect and subject that children engage in.
"It is not just limited to science or maths but it is involved in all subjects and it is helping children to adapt to integral moral practises.
"The moral education programme has been designed to develop children holistically in a world being rapidly transformed by technology and globalisation."
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
Henrik Stenson's finishes at Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship:
2006 - 2
2007 - 8
2008 - 2
2009 - MC
2010 - 21
2011 - 42
2012 - MC
2013 - 23
2014 - MC
2015 - MC
2016 - 3
2017 - 8
ATP WORLD No 1
2004 Roger Federer
2005 Roger Federer
2006 Roger Federer
2007 Roger Federer
2008 Rafael Nadal
2009 Roger Federer
2010 Rafael Nadal
2011 Novak Djokovic
2012 Novak Djokovic
2013 Rafael Nadal
2014 Novak Djokovic
2015 Novak Djokovic
2016 Andy Murray
2017 Rafael Nadal
2018 Novak Djokovic
2019 Rafael Nadal
Where can I submit a sample?
Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.
Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:
- Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
- Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
- Al Towayya in Al Ain
- NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
- Bareen International Hospital
- NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
- NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
- NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
The%20specs
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Dubai World Cup nominations
UAE: Thunder Snow/Saeed bin Suroor (trainer), North America/Satish Seemar, Drafted/Doug Watson, New Trails/Ahmad bin Harmash, Capezzano, Gronkowski, Axelrod, all trained by Salem bin Ghadayer
USA: Seeking The Soul/Dallas Stewart, Imperial Hunt/Luis Carvajal Jr, Audible/Todd Pletcher, Roy H/Peter Miller, Yoshida/William Mott, Promises Fulfilled/Dale Romans, Gunnevera/Antonio Sano, XY Jet/Jorge Navarro, Pavel/Doug O’Neill, Switzerland/Steve Asmussen.
Japan: Matera Sky/Hideyuki Mori, KT Brace/Haruki Sugiyama. Bahrain: Nine Below Zero/Fawzi Nass. Ireland: Tato Key/David Marnane. Hong Kong: Fight Hero/Me Tsui. South Korea: Dolkong/Simon Foster.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPAD%20PRO%20(12.9%22%2C%202022)
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MATCH INFO
Inter Milan 2 (Vecino 65', Barella 83')
Verona 1 (Verre 19' pen)
Teachers' pay - what you need to know
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues