Mixed signals as Cannes opens, but film industry is as full of hope as ever

The economic signals from movieland are mixed at the Cannes Film Festival.

Palatial hotels along the Croisette, the pretty coastline, gourmet cuisine and an abundance of celebrity and style: if the time-served allure of the Cannes Film Festival cannot give the movie industry a boost after sluggish times, it is difficult to think what could.

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The 64th Cannes shindig kicked off last night with the premiere of Woody Allen's romantic comedy Midnight in Paris, which contains a cameo appearance by Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, the French president's wife.

The festival ends on May 22. By the time the Palme d'Or has been awarded and the world's cinema people have departed, bank balances will have taken a pounding and fatigue may well have set in.

But according to some industry sources, participants may be looking back on what one called a "vintage Cannes".

As ever, the signals from movieland are mixed. Harsh economic times and a sharp decline in the DVD market have contributed to perceptions of an industry in crisis. But there are upbeat soundings, too.

In his "state of the industry" address to members of the US National Association of Theatre Owners in Las Vegas, John Fithian, the president and chief executive, said: "It remains a great time to be in the cinema business."

Reports of the speech, which was widely quoted by the US and trade media, refer to worldwide box office receipts climbing 30 per cent over a five-year period to reach a record high of US$31.8 (Dh116.8bn) last year, with US business rising 15 per cent to $10.6bn.

Mr Fithian acknowledged that the first quarter of this year had been difficult but said he expected substantial improvement from this month. He also pointed out that last year's first-quarter figures were boosted by the success of Avatar and other exceptional hits.

Beyond North America, he said, the picture was brighter still: "Box office last year outside the USA and Canada exceeded US$20bn for the first time … The regions of Latin America and Asia-Pacific each grew by more than 20 per cent in a single year. Those numbers are stellar."

But does Mr Fithian's optimism overlook the scale of the poor start to the year? A less rosy appraisal from Bloomberg News noted that Hollywood studios were entering their busiest period facing the task of erasing a 13.5 per cent year-on-year deficit.

Much hope was being pinned on the adventure saga Thor and a string of other "comic-book figures, sci-fi blockbusters and action-adventure flicks" hitting or about to hit the cinemas.

But Bloomberg said the box office was still significantly behind last year. It cited the prediction of Gitesh Pandya, the editor of the Box Office Guru website, that this shortfall would be difficult to make up.

Speaking in Cannes, Mike Goodridge, the editor of Screen International, preferred the positive analysis.

He said Cannes was more about art-house film than Hollywood majors. But he also said: "The feeling is this is going to be a good one. Cannes tends to be cyclical: one year on, the next off. Last year's was a muted event … this could be a vintage Cannes."

Mr Goodridge said there was a lot of excitement about the quality of films in competition.

But - perhaps more important for the industry - there were also signs that this year's parallel market for film distribution rights would be robust.

As the festival gets under way, much attention will focus on the presence, if not physically then on screen, of France's first family.

Beyond the appearance in Woody Allen's film by Ms Bruni-Sarkozy, who is not expected on the Croisette because of her reported pregnancy, the president himself is portrayed in the warts-and-all biopic La Conquete (The Conquest).

But the director Xavier Durringer should not count on Mr Sarkozy adding to the box office figures.

According to the newspaper Nice-Matin, Denis Podalydes, the French actor who portrays the president, met Mr Sarkozy at the Elysee and found him unwilling to discuss the film, except to say: "I don't read books about me, so I will not be going to see the movie either."