US equity futures rallied, briefly triggering a volatility halt in Nasdaq contracts, as Donald Trump’s surprisingly strong election showing snapped stocks back into a rally mode that has prevailed most of the last year.
December contracts on the S&P 500 rose 1.3 per cent as of 10.53pm in New York, while the swift rally in Nasdaq 100 futures triggered an exchange-mandated two-minute trading pause. The gains in the broader contract reached topped 2 per cent before pulling back. Treasury yields plunged, with the 10-year benchmark down to 0.83 per cent and Bloomberg’s dollar index rose 0.5 per cent.
Mr Trump has an early lead in several contested battleground states that would be key to his re-election chances, while challenger Joe Biden is turning to the Midwest for support in his bid to take the White House. The race for control of the Senate remains up in the air.
“Everything flipped, just like in 2016, and it seems like it could be a very large Trump win, which means no contested election – and that’s what the market wants,” said Scott Bauer, chief executive officer at Prosper Trading Academy. “They just don’t want this to drag on.”
Markets have been volatile during the final weeks of the campaign as investors fretted over the potential for a contested outcome, a surge in coronavirus cases and stretched valuations that make megacap tech shares look expensive as the economic rebound starts to slow. The S&P 500 has moved at least 1per cent six of the past seven sessions.
While Mr Biden’s solid lead in polls had some investors speculating there would be a relatively quick decision on who will prevail, a surge in mail-in ballots has made it more likely that some states won’t be able to declare a winner Tuesday. That exposes markets to a drawn out process for determining the next president.
Adding to anxiety is that markets haven’t always been prescient in knowing what outcome they’d prefer. In 2016, Mr Trump’s perceived recklessness was considered bad news for a stock market that detests uncertainty. Futures plunged the maximum 5 per cent as he took the lead late on November 8, 2016. By morning, as investors warmed to his pledges of cutting taxes and slashing regulations, futures had rebounded higher. The S&P 500 has rallied 57 per cent since his surprise win.
Investors have come around on Mr Biden as his lead solidified, banking on his promise to broker a massive aid package to jumpstart the economy hit by the pandemic. Assets seen benefiting most from a Biden administration have climbed alongside his polling lead. The Invesco Solar ETF, ticker TAN, has surged over 140 per cent in the past six months, buoyed by optimism that Biden would boost infrastructure and green-energy spending.
Hopes of a multi-trillion fiscal aid package has boosted benchmark Treasury yields to the highest level since June, dragging beaten-down shares of financial companies higher as well. Meanwhile, the Nomura-Wolfe Biden Election Basket – a group of stocks that wagers on potential winners from a Democratic victory while betting against shares seen as losers – climbed to a record on Monday. The basket holds 30 pair trades across sectors including technology, health care, utilities and others.
But not all outcomes under Mr Biden are considered market-friendly. He also has pledged to roll back the huge tax cuts that Mr Trump handed corporate America back in 2017, a move that, irrespective of the public-policy merits it may have, at least has the potential to create stress for equities. Democrats have also promised tighter financial regulation and will look at how megacap tech companies operate.
Another possibility is that a Biden win is not accompanied by Democrats taking over control of the Senate, leaving Congress divided. That could temper expectations for a spending bill and threaten to stall much of Mr Biden’s platform.
The S&P 500 retreated in both September and October after a torrid summer rally. It closed Tuesday about 6 per cent below its all-time high.
While trades reflecting a Democratic sweep held firm, betting markets aren’t convinced. One gauge slipped to just over 50 per cent odds of the so-called Blue Wave – that Democrats oust Trump and take Congressional majorities. Traders hedged prospects of post-vote volatility, driving a measure of expected swings in China’s yuan to its highest level in more than nine years.
“The closer the race is, the bigger the risk is,” said Erika Karp, founder and CEO of Cornerstone Capital Group. “A close outcome is a risk to the market. The longer it drags out, the bigger the risks.”
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
