Name: Junaid Anwar Khan
Job: Head of treasury trading at National Bank of Fujairah
What asset class and geography are you focused on?
I am focusing on precious metals and G10 currencies in the wake of events that took place in the third and fourth quarter of last year. Given the monetary and macroeconomic landscape, a multitude of opportunities and threats exist for market participants. The former carries significance for China, India and South East Asia, while for the latter, events that took place in the euro zone will have far-reaching implications this year.
What is the outlook for the month ahead?
As February draws to a close, geopolitical events, fiscal policy challenges and monetary strategy have taken centre stage, leading to higher volatility. Falling growth rates in China and emerging markets ushered in dark clouds over base metals and bulk commodities, with precious metals being the exception. Strong consumer demand from China and sovereign buying had led to an extended bull run in precious metals, but demand has abated on both fronts, culminating in a steep decline. With the US dollar on the ascent, precious metals are likely to come under pressure (with palladium the potential exception). A firm revival in consumer demand from traditional importers of bullion is the only ray of hope in the medium term. Base metals and bulk commodities might also suffer from the same malaise. As a result, caution is key. The US dollar is likely to emerge victorious next month in the currency wars as quantitative easing, negative interest rates, structural reforms and benign growth rates engulf the G10 currencies.
What are the main risks, either upside or downside, to the outlook?
On the precious metals front, a meteoric rise in demand for gold and silver bars from key consumer nations has the potential to rejuvenate the bull trend. Sustained growth in demand volume is then likely to morph into a long-term trend, but as is the case with commodities in general, caution in strategy and execution should be the order of the day. In the foreign exchange arena, a sharp decline in US growth coupled with a precipitous fall in core inflation might prove to be the undoing of the dollar’s bull run against the G10 majors. In addition, the Greece-EU debt negotiations and macroeconomic indicators emanating from both core and peripheral Europe will be closely monitored in the months ahead after the launch of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme.
What is the best investment at the moment?
Among the commodities, palladium looks attractive. Issues associated with the supply chain from key producers and rising industrial demand were the catalysts in last year’s bull phase. The metal fell victim to the macro bear run on commodities in the second half of last year and remains under heavy weather at the moment. I expect prices to reattempt the lows from early last month, which could then act as a potential entry point to go long on palladium. On a similar note, going long on gold in euro or yen terms might also be a choice to consider.
What was the best investment you were ever involved in?
There have been positive instances in precious metals, which would stand out in memory and motivate us to better face a new day in the markets.
What was the worst?
The river doesn’t always flow in one direction in financial markets. Opportunities present themselves in different forms across various asset classes. Timely execution with a contingency plan defines the ratio of success. Hits and misses are part of a trader’s life; the hope of the right opportunity on the financial horizon keeps the torch alight, the mind nimble and ready to act.
siyer@thenational.ae
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Scoreline
Bournemouth 2
Wilson 70', Ibe 74'
Arsenal 1
Bellerin 52'
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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More on Turkey's Syria offence
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Company%20Profile
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US%20federal%20gun%20reform%20since%20Sandy%20Hook
%3Cp%3E-%20April%2017%2C%202013%3A%20A%20bipartisan-drafted%20bill%20to%20expand%20background%20checks%20and%20ban%20assault%20weapons%20fails%20in%20the%20Senate.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20July%202015%3A%20Bill%20to%20require%20background%20checks%20for%20all%20gun%20sales%20is%20introduced%20in%20House%20of%20Representatives.%20It%20is%20not%20brought%20to%20a%20vote.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20June%2012%2C%202016%3A%20Orlando%20shooting.%20Barack%20Obama%20calls%20on%20Congress%20to%20renew%20law%20prohibiting%20sale%20of%20assault-style%20weapons%20and%20high-capacity%20magazines.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20October%201%2C%202017%3A%20Las%20Vegas%20shooting.%20US%20lawmakers%20call%20for%20banning%20bump-fire%20stocks%2C%20and%20some%20renew%20call%20for%20assault%20weapons%20ban.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20February%2014%2C%202018%3A%20Seventeen%20pupils%20are%20killed%20and%2017%20are%20wounded%20during%20a%20mass%20shooting%20in%20Parkland%2C%20Florida.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20December%2018%2C%202018%3A%20Donald%20Trump%20announces%20a%20ban%20on%20bump-fire%20stocks.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20August%202019%3A%20US%20House%20passes%20law%20expanding%20background%20checks.%20It%20is%20not%20brought%20to%20a%20vote%20in%20the%20Senate.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20April%2011%2C%202022%3A%20Joe%20Biden%20announces%20measures%20to%20crack%20down%20on%20hard-to-trace%20'ghost%20guns'.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20May%2024%2C%202022%3A%20Nineteen%20children%20and%20two%20teachers%20are%20killed%20at%20an%20elementary%20school%20in%20Uvalde%2C%20Texas.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20June%2025%2C%202022%3A%20Joe%20Biden%20signs%20into%20law%20the%20first%20federal%20gun-control%20bill%20in%20decades.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
John Cena v Triple H
Matches to be announced
WWE World Heavyweight Championship, Raw Tag Team Championship, United States Championship and the Cruiserweight Championship are all due to be defended
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
The biog
Favourite Emirati dish: Fish machboos
Favourite spice: Cumin
Family: mother, three sisters, three brothers and a two-year-old daughter
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.