Even fund managers who were once shunning the pound are now betting on a rally as the UK heads toward a Brexit divorce deal.
Allianz Global Investors, which has been consistently short the pound since the referendum in 2016, has switched to multiple long positions on the currency. Union Bancaire Privee sees volatility rising and is looking to buy sterling on conviction it is undervalued.
Sterling had been on a downtrend this year as the deadline to pull out of the European Union drew closer. The mood has changed this month, spurring a 3 per cent rally in the pound to above $1.31, with optimism building that a divorce deal can be struck as early as next week. Prime Minister Theresa May is said to have begun briefing her team on an almost-finished deal text.
“Ultimately, our view is that a deal gets done so the pound goes much higher,” said Kacper Brzezniak, a portfolio manager at Allianz, which oversees 524 billion euros ($598bn) in assets. “And if it’s voted down in Parliament, I think the more likely outcome would then be towards remaining in the EU, rather than no deal.”
Brzezniak is targeting $1.35 in the short term and $1.40 within a year against the greenback, matching a level seen in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. He has long positions against the euro and Australian dollar as well, while UBP’s currency head Olivier Doleires is also buying against the Swiss franc.
Previously, with the risk wide open for either a jump to $1.50 or a slide to $1.20 on no deal, investors were favouring bets on a move in either direction or on volatility, seen as relatively cheap even as uncertainty increased. A straddle trade, which profits on a sharp shift, has done very well, said Brzezniak.
_______________
Read more:
Pound set to be tested as Brexit D-Day looms
Pound slides after May sticks to Brexit guns
Downbeat mood for markets amid Italy worries and euro decline
_______________
Money managers who put a three-month straddle on the pound-dollar pair toward the end of March would have made around 500 dollar pips on expiry, translating to a profit of $1.2 million on an initial outlay of $1m, according to Bloomberg calculations.
Yet that trade’s moment has passed for Brzezniak, with downside protection more expensive while a rally looks more likely.
UBP, which manages 125 billion Swiss francs ($125bn), is also more positive. Doleires is looking to increase his long position, especially versus the dollar and the franc, on the judgment the pound is undervalued. Sterling is still down 12 per cent since the referendum, and he thinks it could “easily” reach $1.45 on a deal.
“Volatility is set to increase as we are entering what seems to be like the final stages of Brexit negotiations,” he said. “The risk reward is skewed to the upside for the pound.”
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
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Company%20Profile
Captain Marvel
Director: Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck
Starring: Brie Larson, Samuel L Jackson, Jude Law, Ben Mendelsohn
4/5 stars
Sly%20Cooper%20and%20the%20Thievius%20Raccoonus
Tuesday results:
- Singapore bt Malaysia by 29 runs
- UAE bt Oman by 13 runs
- Hong Kong bt Nepal by 3 wickets
Final:
Thursday, UAE v Hong Kong
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
EA Sports FC 25
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Jigra
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
While you're here
Cheryl Thompson: Stop the practice of blackface that's as Canadian as hockey
Kareem Shaheen: Alghabra outshines the racists who malign him
Kareem Shaheen: In Canada, I have finally found a home
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The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
COMPANY PROFILE
8 UAE companies helping families reduce their carbon footprint
Greenheart Organic Farms
This Dubai company was one of the country’s first organic farms, set up in 2012, and it now delivers a wide array of fruits and vegetables grown regionally or in the UAE, as well as other grocery items, to both Dubai and Abu Dhabi doorsteps.
Modibodi
Founded in Australia, Modibodi is now in the UAE with waste-free, reusable underwear that eliminates the litter created by a woman’s monthly cycle, which adds up to approximately 136kgs of sanitary waste over a lifetime.
The Good Karma Co
From brushes made of plant fibres to eco-friendly storage solutions, this company has planet-friendly alternatives to almost everything we need, including tin foil and toothbrushes.
www.instagram.com/thegoodkarmaco
Re:told
One Dubai boutique, Re:told, is taking second-hand garments and selling them on at a fraction of the price, helping to cut back on the hundreds of thousands of tonnes of clothes thrown into landfills each year.
Lush
Lush provides products such as shampoo and conditioner as package-free bars with reusable tins to store.
Bubble Bro
Offering filtered, still and sparkling water on tap, Bubble Bro is attempting to ensure we don’t produce plastic or glass waste. Founded in 2017 by Adel Abu-Aysha, the company is on track to exceeding its target of saving one million bottles by the end of the year.
Coethical
This company offers refillable, eco-friendly home cleaning and hygiene products that are all biodegradable, free of chemicals and certifiably not tested on animals.
Eggs & Soldiers
This bricks-and-mortar shop and e-store, founded by a Dubai mum-of-four, is the place to go for all manner of family products – from reusable cloth diapers to organic skincare and sustainable toys.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
The biog
Family: Parents and four sisters
Education: Bachelor’s degree in business management and marketing at American University of Sharjah
A self-confessed foodie, she enjoys trying out new cuisines, her current favourite is the poke superfood bowls
Likes reading: autobiographies and fiction
Favourite holiday destination: Italy
Posts information about challenges, events, runs in other emirates on the group's Instagram account @Anagowrunning
Has created a database of Emirati and GCC sportspeople on Instagram @abeermk, highlight: Athletes
Apart from training, also talks to women about nutrition, healthy lifestyle, diabetes, cholesterol, blood pressure
Stormy seas
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
THE APPRENTICE
Director: Ali Abbasi
Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 3/5
JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
The specs
A4 35 TFSI
Engine: 2.0-litre, four-cylinder
Transmission: seven-speed S-tronic automatic
Power: 150bhp
Torque: 270Nm
Price: Dh150,000 (estimate)
On sale: First Q 2020
A4 S4 TDI
Engine: 3.0-litre V6 turbo diesel
Transmission: eight-speed PDK automatic
Power: 350bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh165,000 (estimate)
On sale: First Q 2020
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'Downton Abbey: A New Era'
Director: Simon Curtis
Cast: Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter and Phyllis Logan
Rating: 4/5
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
- Life in the royal residences with Sheikha Osha bint Nahayan
- Sheikha Mahra and Sheikha Sabha recall their time spent in Al Hosn
- A place where problems were solved
- How the fort's rise tracked Abu Dhabi's development
- Meet Frauke Heard-Bey - the fort's historian for 30 years
- In Pictures: Story of a fort
SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
While you're here
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
Correspondents
By Tim Murphy
(Grove Press)
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
The specs
Squad for first two ODIs
Kohli (c), Rohit, Dhawan, Rayudu, Pandey, Dhoni (wk), Pant, Jadeja, Chahal, Kuldeep, Khaleel, Shami, Thakur, Rahul.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
A new relationship with the old country
Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates
The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:
ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.
ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.
ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.
Signed
Geoffrey Arthur Sheikh Zayed
Brief scores:
Manchester City 3
Bernardo Silva 16', Sterling 57', Gundogan 79'
Bournemouth 1
Wilson 44'
Man of the match: Leroy Sane (Manchester City)
On Women's Day
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
RESULTS
Women:
55kg brown-black belt: Amal Amjahid (BEL) bt Amanda Monteiro (BRA) via choke
62kg brown-black belt: Bianca Basilio (BRA) bt Ffion Davies (GBR) via referee’s decision (0-0, 2-2 adv)
70kg brown-black belt: Ana Carolina Vieira (BRA) bt Jessica Swanson (USA), 9-0
90kg brown-black belt: Angelica Galvao (USA) bt Marta Szarecka (POL) 8-2
Men:
62kg black belt: Joao Miyao (BRA) bt Wan Ki-chae (KOR), 7-2
69kg black belt: Paulo Miyao (BRA) bt Gianni Grippo (USA), 2-2 (1-0 adv)
77kg black belt: Espen Mathiesen (NOR) bt Jake Mackenzie (CAN)
85kg black belt: Isaque Braz (BRA) bt Faisal Al Ketbi (UAE), 2-0
94kg black belt: Felipe Pena (BRA) bt Adam Wardzinski (POL), 4-0
110kg black belt final: Erberth Santos (BRA) bt Lucio Rodrigues (GBR) via rear naked choke
RESULT
Manchester United 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Man United: Sanchez (24' ), Herrera (62')
Spurs: Alli (11')