Financial markets in most countries touched by last year's Arab Spring disappointed in the first quarter by staying broadly flat or ending down, as investors held off amid signs of continued volatility, and private-sector involvement in the economies remained weak.
Bahrain's All Share Index nudged into the green to end the quarter up 0.8 per cent. In Morocco, the main MASI index is down 0.7 per cent. The Amman Stock Exchange is 0.4 per cent up for the year to date.
"The low points [of the first quarter] are the markets that have stagnated, including Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan and Bahrain," says Graham Stock, the chief strategist at Insparo Asset Management, which focuses on frontier markets.
Outside the stellar performance seen in Egypt, which is up 37.6 per cent this year, the only other indexes to show decisive positive movement in post-Arab Spring countries are in Kuwait, up 3.5 per cent, and in Lebanon, where the main Blom Index has gained 3.4 per cent.
"We remain more cautious of North African markets as we believe their weaker domestic finances and closer links to Europe render them vulnerable if the present optimistic mood among global investors reverses," says Bassel Khatoun, a portfolio manager with Franklin Templeton Investments Middle East.
Egypt's rally has relied on a few key stocks, Mr Stock says. "The rally has been relatively narrow, with Orascom Telecom and Mobinil up around 130 per cent year to date on name-specific developments, and only three other stocks beating the index at all."
Libya reopened its stock exchange last month after it closed for a year during the country's civil. The move is raising hopes that private companies will start to replace the stranglehold of government entities on the country's index, and drive job creation and growth.
Steen Jacobsen, the chief economist at Saxo Bank,says the recovery of financial markets in Arab Spring countries lies in their ability to restart their private sectors. "There needs to be a smooth handover from public to private capital investment," he says. "Too many Mena markets are almost entirely dependent on state business and interaction to create growth. This needs to be reduced."
In Tunisia, where the unrest that would eventually spread across the Arab world began at the end of 2010, the Tunindex ended the quarter up 1.7 per cent. Egypt and Tunisia are net importers of oil, and with the price of Brent crude up to about $126 a barrel, analysts say energy costs are a key risk to the countries' stability.
"The first quarter has been more challenging for the oil-importing countries of North Africa and the Levant," Mr Khatoun says. "However, after a difficult 2011, many are now beginning to show signs of economic recovery and progress towards political stability."
One of the biggest risers on the Tunindex so far this year is Société Magasin Général. On the Tunisian stock exchange, shares in the food and furniture distributor jumped from 136 Tunisian dinars to 177.96 dinars in the first three months of the year. The company has recently signed a partnership agreement with the French group Auchan to start work on rapid movement into Libya.
Arab Monitor calls the Tunisian market "one to watch" over the next 12 months as Libyan liquidity flows increase. "We see regional cooperation as the priority emphasis and potential for the Maghreb," its researchers said in a note.
lmiller@thenational.ae
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Common OCD symptoms and how they manifest
Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.
Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.
Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.
Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.
Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.
Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia
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Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
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Which honey takes your fancy?
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The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year
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