Corporate earnings of GCC-listed firms look stable this year, but political uncertainties and weaker economic growth in the backdrop of low oil prices have made it difficult to be bullish about the markets, according to a market report.
The price of crude, going forward, will be key for the region and its equity markets as it has implications on fiscal policy and the ability of governments to support their economies through what is expected to be a challenging period of transition and reform over the next few years, Tarek Fadlallah, the chief executive at Nomura Asset Management Middle East said in the research note released on Monday.
Governments in the GCC, which is home to about a third of the world's proven oil reserves, rely heavily on the sale of hydrocarbons for revenues. A slump in oil price from the mid-2014 peak of US$115 a barrel to the current level below $50 a barrel has lowered the overall economic growth and dented corporate earnings in the past two years, especially for the financial institutions, and firms operating in oil and gas and petrochemical sectors. The equity markets have also largely followed the oil price movements during the period.
"This is the third consecutive year that oil prices are averaging below $50 [a barrel] – comparable to the levels seen in 2004 when the regional economy was around half its current size," Mr Fadlallah said.
"The market is awash with contradictory data and the outlook is murky, to say the least, but it seems unlikely that oil will fall below $40 [a barrel] anytime soon and equally improbable that it will rally above $60."
Weaker oil prices have also forced the Arabian Gulf monarchies to transform their economies and cut dependence on hydrocarbons.
Many have reduced subsidies and slashed public spending, but that has done little to lift investor sentiment, which remains cautious.
"The benefits of regional reforms will surely emerge, but not this year, and probably not before the latter half of next year, and only after further pain that leads to massive consolidation in key domestic sectors," Mr Fadlallah said.
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In terms of corporate earnings, Marmore Mena Intelligence estimates that aggregate GCC profits will increase by 8.1 per cent, helped largely by a sharp recovery of Abu Dhabi National Energy company (Taqa) after last year's unexpected $4.7 billion loss.
"Excluding the 'Taqa effect' the overall profit level across the region is broadly unchanged," Mr Fadlallah said, adding that the absolute level of profits, at just over $63bn in 2017, is similar to that achieved in 2013 and 2015, but below the all-time high of nearly $69bn recorded in 2014.
By country, corporate earnings in Saudi Arabia will rise 1.9 per cent and in Kuwait by 8.2 per cent. Profits in Qatar are likely to decline by 6.5 per cent, about 5.8 per cent in Bahrain and 8.8 per cent in Oman.
The UAE is expected to be the best performer, with a 39.4 per cent jump in earnings, due to Taqa. Banks in the region will dominate the earnings landscape, accounting for nearly 46 per cent of total profits.
"While investors' focus is on the large listed companies, much of the angst being expressed by deteriorating business sentiment is at unlisted private companies that form the backbone of the economy," he said.
Qatar's problems with the quartet of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, he said, has also added to economic weakness and uncertainties that have hurt business confidence and tarnished the GCC brand – just when the need for international investment is greater than ever, Mr Fadlallah added.
The performance of regional benchmark indexes in particular has been "disappointing" in the context of the global rally, which is a reflection of the adverse macro and micro-economic developments, he said.
Although the valuations of the markets here are not "particularly cheap" against international peers or their own historic averages, they are still trading at a discount to their global peers.
The benchmark S&P 500 Index has risen 8 per cent year-to-date while MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index has added 26 per cent since the beginning of this year.
The main stock gauge of Saudi Arabia, the biggest equity market in the GCC, in comparison is flat and Dubai DFM General Index has added 2 per cent this year. The only significant gainer in the region is Kuwait which rose 20 per cent for the period. Qatar's main measure has dropped 12 per cent while Oman's is down 15 per cent.
MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Bharat
Director: Ali Abbas Zafar
Starring: Salman Khan, Katrina Kaif, Sunil Grover
Rating: 2.5 out of 5 stars
$1,000 award for 1,000 days on madrasa portal
Daily cash awards of $1,000 dollars will sweeten the Madrasa e-learning project by tempting more pupils to an education portal to deepen their understanding of math and sciences.
School children are required to watch an educational video each day and answer a question related to it. They then enter into a raffle draw for the $1,000 prize.
“We are targeting everyone who wants to learn. This will be $1,000 for 1,000 days so there will be a winner every day for 1,000 days,” said Sara Al Nuaimi, project manager of the Madrasa e-learning platform that was launched on Tuesday by the Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, to reach Arab pupils from kindergarten to grade 12 with educational videos.
“The objective of the Madrasa is to become the number one reference for all Arab students in the world. The 5,000 videos we have online is just the beginning, we have big ambitions. Today in the Arab world there are 50 million students. We want to reach everyone who is willing to learn.”
The five types of long-term residential visas
Obed Suhail of ServiceMarket, an online home services marketplace, outlines the five types of long-term residential visas:
Investors:
A 10-year residency visa can be obtained by investors who invest Dh10 million, out of which 60 per cent should not be in real estate. It can be a public investment through a deposit or in a business. Those who invest Dh5 million or more in property are eligible for a five-year residency visa. The invested amount should be completely owned by the investors, not loaned, and retained for at least three years.
Entrepreneurs:
A five-year multiple entry visa is available to entrepreneurs with a previous project worth Dh0.5m or those with the approval of an accredited business incubator in the UAE.
Specialists
Expats with specialised talents, including doctors, specialists, scientists, inventors, and creative individuals working in the field of culture and art are eligible for a 10-year visa, given that they have a valid employment contract in one of these fields in the country.
Outstanding students:
A five-year visa will be granted to outstanding students who have a grade of 95 per cent or higher in a secondary school, or those who graduate with a GPA of 3.75 from a university.
Retirees:
Expats who are at least 55 years old can obtain a five-year retirement visa if they invest Dh2m in property, have savings of Dh1m or more, or have a monthly income of at least Dh20,000.
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Company%20Profile
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Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 3 (Abraham 11', 17', 74')
Luton Town 1 (Clark 30')
Man of the match Abraham (Chelsea)
Brief scores:
Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first
Pakhtoons 137-6 (10 ov)
Fletcher 68 not out; Cutting 2-14
Sindhis 129-8 (10 ov)
Perera 47; Sohail 2-18
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
Result:
1. Cecilie Hatteland (NOR) atop Alex - 31.46 seconds
2. Anna Gorbacheva (RUS) atop Curt 13 - 31.82 seconds
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) atop Cash Up - 32.81 seconds
4. Sheikha Latifa bint Ahmed Al Maktoum (UAE) atop Peanuts de Beaufour - 35.85 seconds
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) atop Benur du Romet - 37.53 seconds
6. Annika Sande (NOR) atop For Cash 2 - 31.42 seconds (4 penalties)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Champion%20v%20Champion%20(PFL%20v%20Bellator)
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How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.