There are really two things which need to be in place for any investment: price and value. Price is what you pay, and value is what you get. Sounds simple, yet it is so complicated when we are in the world of future returns for investors. When trying to create a portfolio, most managers look up historic performance and then correct their future expectations into this average.
Let’s start with the chart alongside this article, from the CFA Institute, which has averaged out the long-term forecasts of JPMorgan, Northern Trust and BNY Mellon.
The expected return then needs to be adjusted. For example, US inflation is nowhere close to the 2 to 5 per cent range which will lower nominal return. Furthermore, two additional changes need to be made: The outperformance in the past seven years under low interest rates – in real buying terms borrowed money has been almost costless – needs to mean-revert to its long-term mean and growth top-line is also lower than norm. Doing all these corrections, Boston-based GMO, one of the world’s largest fund managers, have produced forecasts for their returns for the next seven years – clearly the fat seven years seems to have been replaced with seven lean years.
If GMO is right, the traditional portfolio is under attack – whether it’s equal weighting for stocks and bonds or a 70 per cent weighting for stocks and 30 per cent for bonds, the expected return is pretty much zero. However what few people seem to realise is that over time the next return is correlated more to the “illiquidity” premium of the asset than any other determining factor. This means the less liquid the product trades the higher the expected return – hence treasury bills have zero risks and zero returns. Now government bonds have zero risks and zero returns as well, which means you need to access less liquid markets so as to achieve returns higher than zero over the medium term.
Here, the emerging-markets fourth-quarter theme of Saxo Bank, where I am the chief economist, plays in. Emerging markets is the only asset class in stocks where both price and value are deeply cheap. A study by Kyle Caldwell of the Daily Telegraph found the cheapest nine markets to be: China, Russia, Pakistan, Turkey, Hong Kong, Greece, Poland, Spain and Japan – all markets that we agree offer unique price and value. The reason for our newfound optimism is kind of "negative"; the failure of the US Federal Reserve to start a normalisation cycle will create another leg of pretend-and-extend, which means doing nothing for longer. But it most importantly also delays any potential Fed hike into the second quarter or third quarter of next year, hence creating a cheaper US dollar and time to pass.
Emerging markets are “hated” by most managers because of China and Asia overall: big built-in debt (China’s debt quadrupled from US$7 trillion in 2007 to $28 trillion by the middle of last year, according to the McKinsey Global Institute) and lack of exports combined with low energy prices. But Asia and emerging markets are now priced to imperfection, failure even, and with a monetary policy of stimulus from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, plus a hesitant Federal Reserve, will create carry trades. And here not only the above markets, but also emerging markets overall comes to mind. To short emerging markets is very expensive – the 12-month yield is +233 basis points in iShares MSCI Emerging Markets, a big exchange-traded fund (ETF). ETFs are passively managed investment funds traded publicly on stock exchanges in the same manner as traditional stocks.
How do we combine all of the above: price, value, future expectations and economic outlook?
I believe the rest of this year is fair sailing but that by the first quarter next year, the non-change, lack of reform and no mandate for change will have Europe but also the United States close to recession, which means lower overall interest rates levels. This, combined with stubborn inflation expectations and expected returns profile, creates my choice of portfolio: Thirty per cent in gold, silver exchange-traded funds (tickers: GLD, SLV), 15 per cent in broad emerging markets (ticker: EEM), 10 per cent in Japan (Fidelity funds), 35 per cent in US bonds with maturity tenor of between seven and 10 years. (ticker: IEF) and 10 per cent in emerging markets bonds (ticker: EMB).
My choice of portfolio is overweight on metals due to lower real interest rates, and the stabilising of the US dollar and commodities. My investments in emerging markets are due to carry trades and also because they are cheap or of good value. Meanwhile, Japan-Fidelity is a play on the initial public offering of Japan’s postal system, which I believe will change the landscape and allocation to stocks in Japan. The IEF bonds I expect to be lower for longer due to the actions of the major global central banks. Finally, my investment in the iShares JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond fund is because I expect countries will see less pressure from inflation as the currency stabilises.
This is my portfolio for the year end and past the new year. When things have normalised in emerging markets and Japan, I will rotate to neutral.
Steen Jakobsen is the chief economist of Saxo Bank.
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What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the most popular virtual currency in the world. It was created in 2009 as a new way of paying for things that would not be subject to central banks that are capable of devaluing currency. A Bitcoin itself is essentially a line of computer code. It's signed digitally when it goes from one owner to another. There are sustainability concerns around the cryptocurrency, which stem from the process of "mining" that is central to its existence.
The "miners" use computers to make complex calculations that verify transactions in Bitcoin. This uses a tremendous amount of energy via computers and server farms all over the world, which has given rise to concerns about the amount of fossil fuel-dependent electricity used to power the computers.
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
POSSIBLE ENGLAND EURO 2020 SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope, Dean Henderson.
Defenders: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Kieran Trippier, Joe Gomez, John Stones, Harry Maguire, Tyrone Mings, Ben Chilwell, Fabian Delph.
Midfielders: Declan Rice, Harry Winks, Jordan Henderson, Ross Barkley, Mason Mount, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Forwards: Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, Tammy Abraham, Callum Hudson-Odoi.
The%20specs
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ASIAN%20RUGBY%20CHAMPIONSHIP%202024
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RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Omania, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)
5.30pm: Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 1,600m
Winner: Brehaan, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez
6pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,600m
Winner: Craving, Connor Beasley, Simon Crisford
6.30pm: The President’s Cup Prep (PA) Dh100,000 2,200m
Winner: Rmmas, Tadhg O’Shea, Jean de Roualle
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
Winner: Dahess D’Arabie, Connor Beasley, Helal Al Alawi
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Fertile De Croate, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel
Ashes 2019 schedule
August 1-5: First Test, Edgbaston
August 14-18: Second Test, Lord's
August 22-26: Third Test, Headingley
September 4-8: Fourth Test, Old Trafford
September 12-16: Fifth Test, Oval
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE POPE'S ITINERARY
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Championship play-offs, second legs:
Aston Villa 0
Middlesbrough 0
(Aston Villa advance 1-0 on aggregate)
Fulham 2
Sessegnon (47'), Odoi (66')
Derby County 0
(Fulham advance 2-1 on aggregate)
Final
Saturday, May 26, Wembley. Kick off 8pm (UAE)
Kill%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nikhil%20Nagesh%20Bhat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Lakshya%2C%20Tanya%20Maniktala%2C%20Ashish%20Vidyarthi%2C%20Harsh%20Chhaya%2C%20Raghav%20Juyal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.5%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
PROFILE OF STARZPLAY
Date started: 2014
Founders: Maaz Sheikh, Danny Bates
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment/Streaming Video On Demand
Number of employees: 125
Investors/Investment amount: $125 million. Major investors include Starz/Lionsgate, State Street, SEQ and Delta Partners
The biog
Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi
Age: 23
How she spends spare time: Playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them
Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need
Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman
Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs
Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
Rajasthan Royals 158-8 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 143/7 (20 ovs)
Rajasthan Royals won by 15 runs