Bonds bearing up as Mena equities hit

Fundamentals in the GCC remain broadly intact and our outlook for bond performance, particularly on a relative basis, remains positive, writes Mohieddine Kronfol.

The PMI reading for UAE remained above 56 in April and May, showing continued expansion. Sarah Dea / The National

Uncertain global growth prospects and an end to the run-up in commodity prices seen in the first four months of this year hurt Mena equities, but bonds performed comparatively well.

The Citi Mena Broad Bond Index rose slightly and outperformed the World Government Bond Index and the Emerging Market Bond Index Global Diversified alike.

The headline purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reading for Saudi Arabia declined in April but remained a robust 58.3 as the US$29 billion supplementary spending programme announced this year continued to seep into the economy. At the same time, details emerged that the fall in oil prices, combined with higher public spending, was leading to a depletion of foreign currency reserves.

The PMI reading for UAE remained above 56 in April and May, showing continued expansion, although with some loss of momentum. The continued diversification of the UAE economy is feeding through to healthy non-oil economic growth but also inflation, which remained at a six-year high in April, largely as a result of jumps in property prices.

Oman and Bahrain are considered to have the weakest financial position among GCC members in terms of projected fiscal deficits and net assets at their disposal.

During May, the Bahraini government approved a draft budget that projects a fiscal deficit equivalent to 12 per cent of DP, suggesting the authorities have little appetite for fiscal consolidation.

Meanwhile, Oman’s total government revenues dropped by 24 per cent in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period of 2014, largely as a result of falling oil prices. But government spending on energy subsidies dropped by 48 per cent and by 25 per cent on defence over the same period. At the same time, the Omani government is continuing to spend on infrastructure and economic development projects that it hopes will broaden the economy and eventually reduce its dependence on oil. Public investment spending thus rose more than 2 per cent in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.

While oil price volatility was expected to impose fiscal constraints on the GCC, the region’s commitment to growth has been demonstrated through continued government focus on domestic spending plans.

This commitment has been supported by the huge financial reserves most of these countries enjoy and has not involved any meaningful access to capital markets yet, which thus remain a largely untapped resource.

While it is not clear that we will witness a resumption of the recovery in oil prices seen in the first four months of this year, there seems to be a growing awareness in GCC countries of the need to cut back on a vast array of subsidies and build necessary infrastructure in a bid to diversify national economies. Thus, Oman has cut back on defence spending and subsidies but is increasing its investment spending.

GCC countries have also been looking to diversify their sources of income.

Last month, officials of the six-nation GCC met in Doha and agreed to keep working on the introduction of value-added tax around the region according to mutually agreed principles. They also agreed to ask the IMF to conduct an in-depth study of the effects of low oil prices on their financial stability, domestic energy prices and tax policies.

In addition, there have been some signs of rebalancing, with loan growth slowing in many places. According to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, for example, loan growth in April rose at a monthly rate of just 0.5 per cent and a yearly rate of 9.4 per cent – the lowest levels seen in the kingdom in three and a half years.

All in all, notwithstanding some build-up of pressure on public finances, fundamentals in the GCC remain broadly intact and our outlook for bond performance, particularly on a relative basis, remains positive.

Mohieddine Kronfol is the chief investment officer for fixed income and global sukuk at Franklin Templeton Investments Middle East