US stocks rally is about to run out of steam, Citigroup says

Stock market numbers are displayed on a screen at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City. The S&P 500 closed 0.37 per cent lower at 4,409.59. Getty Images via AFP

The bull-market rally in US stocks is about to run out of steam, according to Citigroup.

Strategists at the bank led by Scott Chronert this week reiterated their call for the S&P 500 Index to tumble to 4,000 by year-end, and initiated a new target of 4,400 by mid-2024, or just below the 4,418 level the benchmark was trading at late Friday.

A lack of concrete earnings revisions and a looming US recession will catch up with ballooning share prices, while many key measures of investor psyche suggest wariness around the S&P 500’s latest breakout, Mr Chronert wrote in notes to clients this week.

The Levkovich Index, a sentiment gauge, remains in “panic” territory at -0.18, while his team called the equity flow backdrop “putrid”.

“Combined, this implies this move above 4,400 on the S&P 500 is relatively unloved,” he wrote.

Even as equities have defied naysayers in recent months, Mr Chronert remains among a chorus of Wall Street bears unconvinced the rally has legs.

Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett said on Friday that it was unlikely that a “brand, new shiny bull market,” is under way, comparing the current set-up to 2000 or 2008. Prominent bearish voices like Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and JPMorgan Chase & Co’s Marko Kolanvovic have also doubled down on their downbeat forecasts this week.

The S&P 500 closed 0.37 per cent lower at 4,409.59 at the end of the trading session on Friday.

It’s a pivotal moment for Wall Street strategists tasked with predicting where the stock market will go after the consensus bearish outlook heading into 2023 failed to come to fruition. The common view was that stocks would drop in the first half and recover to close little changed from late 2022 levels by the end of the year. Instead, the S&P 500 is up more than 15 per cent year-to-date and Nasdaq 100 nearly 40 per cent

While big names including BofA’s Savita Subramanian and RBC’s Lori Calvasina have modified their calls, those who remain adamant a downturn awaits are in for a big test as the second half of the year gets under way.

“While acknowledging we missed the AI euphoria to grip mega cap growth cohort, lack of concrete earnings revision support implies a digestive phase” in the second half, Mr Chronert wrote earlier this week.

“As enticing as it may be to follow the tape and nudge our year-end target higher, we just do not see the fundamental justification for this, yet.”