India’s looming general elections are becoming a source of increasing concern for the country’s economic outlook.
The elections, which are held every five years, are expected by May. The outcome will be crucial for the economy, with growth sputtering below a decade low of 5 per cent recorded in the last financial year, while inflation levels remain stubbornly high and weakness in the rupee persists.
“The political backdrop will remain critical in the coming months for the economy as well as for various segments of the financial markets,” Barclays says.
India’s central bank has also highlighted the risks.
“A potential additional source of uncertainty is the coming general election,” says Raghuram Rajan, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, who came to office in September.
“A stable new government would be positive for the economy,” he wrote in comments in a report issued by the central bank just a few days ago. “With confidence in the financial system still fragile, six years into the crisis, policy certainty is something investors look for in the current environment.”
Many believe that Manmohan Singh’s ruling Congress party will be toppled after the government has been mired in controversy surrounding major corruption scandals and accused of delaying economic reforms that would be critical to the country’s economy.
The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is perceived as more business-friendly than Congress and seems to be favoured by investors.
Last month, the Indian rupee and stocks rallied after it was revealed that the party had won an absolute majority in three out of four state elections.
Narendra Modi, the BJP’s candidate for prime minister and the chief minister of Gujarat, has been widely credited for the state’s impressive pace of economic development over the past years, and many hope that he could deliver the same results at a nationwide level.
Expectations that Mr Modi could come to power were enough for Goldman Sachs to to controversially upgrade its view on Indian equities, stating that anticipation of a BJP victory would boost investor confidence over the coming months. But polls suggest that they could fall short of winning a clear majority, which means that they would be part of a fragmented coalition, which could potentially result in instability.
“A stable government post-elections, while likely, cannot be taken for granted,” Mr Rajan said in a speech in New Delhi last month. “This implies that all parties have to work together today to ensure that any government that emerges post-election has the time to come to terms with the challenges of managing the Indian economy. Otherwise, markets and rating agencies may not be willing to cut the new government any slack.”
S&P has warned that India could be at risk of having its credit rating downgraded to junk status, depending on the outcome of the election.
“The negative outlook indicates that we may lower the rating to speculative grade next year if the government that takes office after the general election does not appear capable of reversing India’s low economic growth,” says S&P. “Barring an unexpected deterioration of the fiscal or external accounts before the election, we expect to review the rating on India after the next general elections when the new government has announced its policy agenda.’’
The central bank has focused in on the challenges that the new government will have to deal with.
“It would be overly complacent and possibly dangerous for parties to postpone necessary legislation with the idea that they will pass bills post-election,” Mr Rajan says. “Post-election politics may become even more challenging, whoever assumes power.
But the impending elections mean that it is unlikely that any major economic reforms will be made over the coming months to avoid the risk of upsetting the electorate.
“I expect a lot of uncertainty regarding the results,” says Kamal Sen, the president and chief executive of Cogitaas, a consultancy specialising in strategy and planning. “Between now and May, the present government may focus on inflation control and clearing pending investment projects.”
Investors will be expecting the new government to deal with a slew of issues, he explains.
“When a new government comes – which will be a certain dispensation of a coalition – investors will be looking at certain key issues: liberalisation of FDI [foreign direct investment], introduction of GST [goods and services tax] and any other tax system overhaul and clearance of pending infrastructure and other projects. Clearly public finances and the exchange rate are causes for concern for domestic and foreign investors.
“The current government has curbed market freedom with several types of price controls. For investors, an issue to watch, will be the degree of freedom the government allows economic agents.
“In addition, the central bank will have to deal with persistently high inflation, high interest rates and growing bad loans in the banking system.”
But there is little clarity on what decisions are likely to emerge, he says.
“Politically it is quite unclear as to which party will support what, in terms of the above economic policies. So, I would say, whichever coalition comes in, the above stated economic issues need to be addressed. Currently none of the parties have either very clear or very consistent opinions or track record on them.
“Depending on the nature of the coalition, economic policy will probably be haphazard moving from case to case without much of a consistent pattern, but there could be some momentum gain compared to the present stasis.”
Varun Goel, the head of portfolio management services at Karvy, says that general elections play a key role in the performance of Indian stock markets.
“Markets made fresh lifetime highs on the back of improving domestic macros, supportive global equity and expected governance improvement in India after the next general elections. The Sensex crossed the level of 21,200 after a gap of almost six years. FII [foreign institutional investors] reaffirmed their commitment towards Indian equities with more than US$20 billion invested in 2013.”
He says he expects this momentum to continue.
“Indian equity markets have tended to move up going into the general elections,” he says.“The average return in the six month period going into the general elections has been 17.6 per cent in the post-liberalisation era. We expect this time to be no different. The recent opinion polls indicate support building up for the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). There have been several concerns about governance and populist schemes in the last few years, and markets are getting excited about prospects of a better government emerging from the next election. We would expect a bigger rally building up going into the election.”
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