Lebanon, it seems, will have to wait for another two years before it can enjoy uninterrupted electricity supply. Dimitar Dilkoff / AFP
Lebanon, it seems, will have to wait for another two years before it can enjoy uninterrupted electricity supply. Dimitar Dilkoff / AFP

Lebanon can learn from one woman in south-west England



The other evening I was at a dinner party where I met a former British officer who is helping to train the Lebanese army. I asked him how he rated our soldiers.

"They are absolutely super guys", he said with the typical can-do enthusiasm that Sandhurst has been instilling for generations. "Really professional and better than most people give them credit for. But it's all give and take. You guys are natural businessmen. What we can teach you about soldiering, you can teach us about business. You know it like no other nation. This, your charm and your love of life, is what makes you shine."

So why aren't we the Singapore of the Middle East, a nation run by bon viveurs with Excel sheets?

The irony is that for a country that is so dexterous with money, we actually do very little to encourage prosperity for the common good and everything to ensure that interests - political and financial - are protected … and to hell with everything else.

The current civil marriage furore is a case in point and, dare I say it, a uniquely Lebanese affair. Opposed by the religious authorities on moral grounds, the battle is really over protecting a very plump cash cow. All Lebanon's religious institutions derive much of their income from religious ceremonies - marriage, divorce, funerals, baptisms and the like. Allowing Lebanese to marry in the eyes of the state and thus be subject to a civil marriage law is a red line.

The grand mufti was so agitated that he issued a mini fatwa, accusing Muslim officials who backed civil marriage, even as an option, of apostasy. Few took him seriously but it was enough to convince the former prime minister Saad Hariri, who has been in self-imposed exile in Paris for nearly two years, to give a one-on-one interview with the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation on the matter.

Would that he cared as much about the economy, which remains in a tailspin. Local businesses continue to fold; the top five Lebanese banks barely broke even last year, while activity on the comatose Beirut Stock Exchange in January dropped by 50 per cent year-on-year, with only a measly US$15 million (Dh55m) - what the London Stock Exchange can do in one minute - in shares traded in the whole month.

The government is also under pressure from the unions to raise the salary scale, something the central bank has warned will cause both inflation and unemployment to rise.

They said we'd never "do a Greece". Never say never.

The prognosis of our more chronic ailments is equally bleak. The energy ministry announced last week that the country would have to wait two more years before it could enjoy 24-hour electricity.

In the meantime, the government is paying a fuel import bill that represents 10 per cent of GDP and makes annual transfers to Electricité du Liban that are equivalent to 4 per cent of GDP. Oh, and let's not forget the $360m the government has agreed to pay a Turkish firm to lease three generator ships to make up the shortfall until 2015.

And for those who believe that we will soon be pumping the revenues from our own natural oil and gas into the state coffers, think again.

Citigroup analysts predicted that "divisive politics" and "traditional institutional bickering" would mean that it would be 2020 at the earliest before we can start extracting our natural oil and gas resources.

So last week, it was heartening to hear Lebanese customs announce that exports of Lebanese wine to the United Kingdom rose 33 per cent, all as a result of a $150,000 a year generic marketing campaign, devised by a one-woman PR operation that is run from a small office in Bath in south-west England.

Maybe the government could also do with a few cool-headed foreigners to take care of business as well.

Michael Karam is a writer based in Beirut

'The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas are Setting up a Generation for Failure' ​​​​
Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt, Penguin Randomhouse

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Wenger's Arsenal reign in numbers

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704 - wins to date as Arsenal manager.
3 - Premier League title wins, the last during an unbeaten Invincibles campaign of 2003/04.
1,549 - goals scored in Premier League matches by Wenger's teams.
10 - major trophies won.
473 - Premier League victories.
7 - FA Cup triumphs, with three of those having come the last four seasons.
151 - Premier League losses.
21 - full seasons in charge.
49 - games unbeaten in the Premier League from May 2003 to October 2004.

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Milestones on the road to union

1970

October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar. 

December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.

1971

March 1:  Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.

July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.

July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.

August 6:  The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.

August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.

September 3: Qatar becomes independent.

November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.

November 29:  At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.

November 30: Despite  a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa. 

November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties

December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.

December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.

December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.

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Second ODI

England 322-7 (50 ovs)
India 236 (50 ovs)

England win by 86 runs

Next match: Tuesday, July 17, Headingley