TOKYO // In less than a decade, the approximately 6.5 million members of the generation born during Japan’s first baby boom (1947-49) will all be 75 years old or older, according to the country’s cabinet office.
Japan will become an aged society the likes of which no other country has ever experienced. As a result, it expects a shortage of labour, medical and social care services, especially in metropolitan areas, a situation referred to in Tokyo as the “2025 Problem”.
While the problem is not yet at crisis levels, the government, health services and businesses are priming themselves to deal with the ageing issue.
For their part, construction firms are seeing opportunities regarding housing provision for the ageing population, Akira Harada, the general manager of the Japan Federation of Housing Organisations, tells The National. "Already many Japanese housing companies are proposing houses where elderly people can live safely and conveniently."
The government has not yet specified the amount of housing required to meet the needs of older people, not least because the present number of housing units in Japan is a little over 60.63 million, exceeding the total number of households. “So people are not only thinking of building new houses … but also of renovating old houses” for older people’s needs, Mr Harada says.
New housing boasts not only superior earthquake resistance but also better material durability and heat insulation. In addition, builders also keep each floor on a level plane so older people can move around safely, and ensure corridors are sufficiently wide for nursing purposes such as wheelchairs, Mr Harada says. “Besides detached housing, new condominiums also offer various features for elderly people,” he adds.
A report by the Japan cabinet office’s economic and social research institute, titled Economic Effects of Retiring Baby Boomers, says Japan’s population peaked at about 128 million in 2010 and is expected to be about 52 million in 2100 following a decrease in population.
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At a glance
What: The Japanese population is ageing rapidly and decreasing so steps must be taken.
Why: With fewer workers across all sectors, the economy could be negatively impacted.
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Japan’s total fertility rate (TFR) – the number of children who would be born per woman if she were to pass through the childbearing years bearing children – has decreased rapidly since the first baby boom. From the mid-1950s until the mid-1970s, the TFR was about 2, but has been decreasing steadily since then, the report says.
Consequently, the ratio of the dependent population (0 to 14 and 65 and over) is increasing rapidly (in Japan, compulsory schooling runs through junior high school, with graduation at 15). The generation of the first baby boom is particularly expected to increase dramatically from around 2025, when its members will reach 75 years of age or older, the institute says.
Japan’s productive age population (15-64) peaked in 1995 and is decreasing steadily. The ratio of the productive age population to the 15 to 64 total is expected to be only about 50 per cent in 2060, the report says.
Compared with other developed countries, the labour force participation of elderly people (65 and over) in Japan is high, at 19.3 per cent, compared with 16.7 per cent for the United States, 8.8 per cent for the United Kingdom and 2 per cent for France. The results of a survey the cabinet office conducted in 2013 showed 25 per cent of the first baby boom generation want to work as long as possible.
Demand for doctors, nurses and medical staff is expected to increase by about 30 per cent in 2025 over 2011, and demand for social care staff is expected to increase by 50 per cent in 2025 compared to 2013. However, the productive age population is expected to decrease by 10.4 per cent during the same period, the cabinet report says.
National health insurance is one of the two major types of insurance programmes available in Japan. The other is employees’ health insurance. National health insurance is designed for people who are not eligible to be members of any employment-based health insurance programme.
Although private insurance is also available, all Japanese citizens, permanent residents, and any non-Japanese residing in Japan with a visa lasting three months or longer are required to be enrolled with either the national health insurance or an employees’ health insurance scheme.
National health insurance requires medical services users to pay 30 per cent of their medical expenses. People 70 to 74 years old with a taxable annual income of less than ¥1.45 million (Dh48,824), as well as their dependants, pay 20 per cent. Dependants are an adult’s spouse or offspring whose monthly working hours are less than three quarters that of average workers, with an annual income of less than ¥1.3m. People over 75 years old with a taxable annual income of less than ¥1.45m, as well as their dependants, pay only 10 per cent. Children under six pay only 20 per cent.
The ministry of health, labour and welfare plans to provide additional financial support to the national health insurance system starting in fiscal year 2018. The government will raise the national consumption tax from the current 8 per cent to 10 per cent in October next year, allowing it to add money to the health insurance system, the Japan Medical Association executive board member Kunihiko Suzuki tells The National. The association has about 168,000 members.
“We hope and expect to have these new amounts made available as financial resources for this purpose,” Mr Suzuki says.
No money will come from the private sector, however. “In Japan, private enterprise participation is not permitted in the healthcare system,” he says.
Pharmaceutical research is undertaken by private companies and university research centres as well as through joint ventures, says the Japan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association senior managing director Akira Kawahara. Population ageing will not impact the direction of the 72 members’ research priorities, Mr Kawahara says.
“The mission assigned to us as a life-related industry is clear, and there is nothing in the future that will change it, despite a very intense environment for such a change,” he says.
The manufacturing sector has not yet been overly affected by population ageing and decline, says Nicholas Smith, an analyst at CLSA Japan, the Tokyo office of the Hong Kong brokerage agency CLSA. However, the government does plan to give an increasing amount of money to machine research to cover a future deficit in manpower, Mr Smith says, without giving details.
But the service sector will have trouble attracting people, as it is the least popular sector to work in, Mr Smith says. “The salary is low, businesses tend to be low-grade, pride in the job is lower, job security is lower,” he says.
The Ireland-based journalist Eamonn Fingleton, who has written three books on the economies of East Asian countries, says the ageing of Japan’s population means the workforce is declining, thus growth in overall GDP is a lot slower than it was when the workforce was expanding.
These demographics are ultimately traceable to a Japanese government decision in the late 1940s to reduce the birth rate, Mr Fingleton says. “The main programmes were implemented under the Eugenic Protection Act of 1948, and within a few years, the birth rate was reduced by half,” he says.
Looking to the longer term, it is a reasonable bet that the Japanese population will stabilise of its own accord, as most couples want to have two children and some have three, thereby generating enough children to replace those people who are at the end of their lives, Mr Fingleton says.
Japan will continue to rank as a major player in manufacturing, and particularly in advanced manufacturing, he says. “That is the sort of industry that requires large amounts of capital and production know-how,” he says.
For Kokichi Shoji, a professor emeritus of sociology at the University of Tokyo, Japan’s main stumbling block in resolving the issues of ageing society and depopulation is Tokyo’s refusal to take in immigrants in any significant number.
"If we do not accept more serious and cooperative people from abroad, there will eventually be not only a shortage of general workers but also of specialised ones such as care workers, nursery school teachers, nurses, which will hinder social revitalisation," Mr Shoji, a specialist on contemporary social change, tells The National.
“It is unfortunate that Japanese citizens and the Japanese government are closed-minded and do not want to accept either refugees or immigrants.”
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Infobox
Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the next stage of qualifying, in Malaysia in August
Results
UAE beat Iran by 10 wickets
Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by eight wickets
Oman beat Bahrain by nine wickets
Qatar beat Maldives by 106 runs
Monday fixtures
UAE v Kuwait, Iran v Saudi Arabia, Oman v Qatar, Maldives v Bahrain
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Changing visa rules
For decades the UAE has granted two and three year visas to foreign workers, tied to their current employer. Now that's changing.
Last year, the UAE cabinet also approved providing 10-year visas to foreigners with investments in the UAE of at least Dh10 million, if non-real estate assets account for at least 60 per cent of the total. Investors can bring their spouses and children into the country.
It also approved five-year residency to owners of UAE real estate worth at least 5 million dirhams.
The government also said that leading academics, medical doctors, scientists, engineers and star students would be eligible for similar long-term visas, without the need for financial investments in the country.
The first batch - 20 finalists for the Mohammed bin Rashid Medal for Scientific Distinction.- were awarded in January and more are expected to follow.
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Company%20Profile
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Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
More on Quran memorisation:
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
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The%20Specs
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How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner: Dirilis Ertugrul, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ismail Mohammed (trainer)
2.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,400m
Winner: Kidd Malibu, Sandro Paiva, Musabah Al Muhairi
2.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,000m
Winner: Raakezz, Tadhg O’Shea, Nicholas Bachalard
3.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,200m
Winner: Au Couer, Sean Kirrane, Satish Seemar
3.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
Winner: Rayig, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
4.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
Winner: Chiefdom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m
Winner: King’s Shadow, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
Illegal%20shipments%20intercepted%20in%20Gulf%20region
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Another way to earn air miles
In addition to the Emirates and Etihad programmes, there is the Air Miles Middle East card, which offers members the ability to choose any airline, has no black-out dates and no restrictions on seat availability. Air Miles is linked up to HSBC credit cards and can also be earned through retail partners such as Spinneys, Sharaf DG and The Toy Store.
An Emirates Dubai-London round-trip ticket costs 180,000 miles on the Air Miles website. But customers earn these ‘miles’ at a much faster rate than airline miles. Adidas offers two air miles per Dh1 spent. Air Miles has partnerships with websites as well, so booking.com and agoda.com offer three miles per Dh1 spent.
“If you use your HSBC credit card when shopping at our partners, you are able to earn Air Miles twice which will mean you can get that flight reward faster and for less spend,” says Paul Lacey, the managing director for Europe, Middle East and India for Aimia, which owns and operates Air Miles Middle East.
WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
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UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
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The%20specs
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The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
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