A few weeks ago I wrote that the economic arguments in the British referendum debate had been well and truly won by the Remain side – and, on Bill Clinton’s principle that “it’s the economy, stupid!”, that was that. Game over.
It was far from over. The economics were soon submerged in emotional and moral arguments, which swept it aside: immigration, particularly by the Turks; loss of sovereignty; and the fear that Britain was going to get drawn down the road to closer integration inside the European Union. The polls, which started off reassuring David Cameron that he would win a handsome victory, swung the other way, causing panic in the Remain camp and share prices and the pound to fall sharply.
With days to go, the polls are running neck-and-neck. The markets, watching the bad-tempered debate in growing bewilderment, decided over the weekend that enough was enough and that sense and the Remainers will prevail. As Asian markets opened yesterday, the pound powered ahead, recording its biggest one-day rise since the banking crisis in 2008 when the whole British financial system was on the verge of collapse.
But if Thursday’s vote goes Mr Cameron’s way it will not be because of the economic arguments. Forecasts have been coming so thick and fast with warnings of hellfire and brimstone attached to them that the British public has switched off. The people do not believe any of them, and with good reason: how many economists, after all, forecast the crash of 2008-09? Why should they be right now?
No, that has little to do with the rising optimism in the Remain camp. The swing back, which the market antennae picked up long before the pollsters, has come from the brutal murder of an engaging young Labour MP and passionate Remainer, Jo Cox. European markets soon picked up the scent with stock prices following the upwards trajectory of sterling.
Of course the polls and the markets could be wrong, but, in a curious way, markets seldom are. The Cox tragedy has caused voters to pause and think again about the fateful path they were blindly heading down without seriously considering the economic consequences.
No one much likes the EU (particularly, as a recent poll showed, the French and Germans) but, as the Economist remarked last week, even if EU membership has unsatisfactory aspects "it beats all plausible alternatives".
Win or lose, it has been a dirty, soul-destroying and bruising debate that has frequently dropped into the puerile. Reputations have been damaged, including that of Mr Cameron but more so that of his chancellor, George Osborne, who has seen his chances of succeeding him as prime minister recede dramatically. Boris Johnson, the other contender and chief Brexiteer, has also emerged badly, seen as an unprincipled opportunist and an oaf (which he is not – in fact there is a very keen brain underneath that matt of thatch).
The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, supposedly campaigning on the Remain side, has hardly said anything and Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader, capped his absurd campaign with a poster depicting a long queue of migrants at the borders of the EU with the caption “Breaking Point”. That caused even a horror-struck Boris to disown him and every political leader to condemn him as racist.
If the vote is a narrow one, either way a second referendum is emerging as a real possibility. In the end that may be the most elegant solution. But it is high risk. Better the devil you know: vote Remain.
Ivan Fallon is a former business editor of The Sunday Times.
business@thenational.ae
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Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
Jawan
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
The five pillars of Islam
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Results
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,600m; Winner: RB Kings Bay, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: AF Ensito, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
8pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,400m; Winner: AF Sourouh, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
8.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m; Winner: Baaher, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
9pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Mootahady, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
9.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Dubai Canal, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
10pm: Al Ain Cup – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Harrab, Bernardo Pinheiro, Majed Al Jahouri
What is an ETF?
An exchange traded fund is a type of investment fund that can be traded quickly and easily, just like stocks and shares. They come with no upfront costs aside from your brokerage's dealing charges and annual fees, which are far lower than on traditional mutual investment funds. Charges are as low as 0.03 per cent on one of the very cheapest (and most popular), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, with the maximum around 0.75 per cent.
There is no fund manager deciding which stocks and other assets to invest in, instead they passively track their chosen index, country, region or commodity, regardless of whether it goes up or down.
The first ETF was launched as recently as 1993, but the sector boasted $5.78 billion in assets under management at the end of September as inflows hit record highs, according to the latest figures from ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five largest providers BlackRock’s iShares, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisers, Deutsche Bank X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
While the best-known track major indices such as MSCI World, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100, you can also invest in specific countries or regions, large, medium or small companies, government bonds, gold, crude oil, cocoa, water, carbon, cattle, corn futures, currency shifts or even a stock market crash.
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'THE WORST THING YOU CAN EAT'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.