India trade and investment may benefit from US political climate, Brexit

A new research report showed that India would be one of the 'global hotspots' for mergers and acquisitions in the coming years.

Trade and investment into India could benefit from political developments in the US and Europe, according to the global law firm Baker McKenzie.

“As the US potentially becomes more inward looking and protectionist, and Europe deals with elections and Brexit negotiations, an increasing share of the growth in international trade and investment will by necessity come from intra-Asia Pacific activity,” said Gary Seib, Baker McKenzie’s chair for the Asia Pacific region.

“Not only are business leaders looking more favourably on India as a destination to do business in and with, there is an expectation that India’s influence will grow substantially in the region as a result.”

A new research report released by the law firm on Tuesday showed that India would be one of the “global hotspots” for mergers and acquisitions in the coming years.

It forecasts that the total value of mergers and acquisition transactions – domestic and inbound – will more than double from last year to US$49.3 billion in 2019. It also expects to see the flurry of IPOs in India to continue over the next four years.

Meanwhile, the firm’s survey of business leaders in the Asia Pacific region found that India was considered to be the one that was most focused on improving its business environment in the region.

Michael Mensik, a Chicago-based partner at Baker Mckenzie who specialises in IT and outsourcing practice, said that proposed visa changes that would affect India’s IT sector could end up going to vote and “there would be some Republican support – how broad I don’t know”.

He said: “That’s one that’s a little bit sensitive and we have to watch.”

In terms of technology, he said that the former president Barack Obama “on his way out of office actually further liberalised our export control rules to make the movement of technology from US to India easier. I’m speculating but I don’t think Trump is going to try and reverse that.”

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