Economic growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (Menap) is likely to rebound in 2018 after losing momentum this year, weighed down by geopolitical risks and a slowdown in Iran's economy, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Overall Menap growth is projected to rise to 3.5 per cent in 2017 from 2.6 per cent this year, the Washington-based IMF said in its world economic outlook report on Tuesday.
The region's 2018 prospects are just below that of the world economy as a whole, which is forecast to grow by 3.7 per cent next year, and far ahead of the average for advanced economies, which are predicted to grow by just 2 per cent.
The UAE's economy, which is more developed and diversified than most others in the Menap region, is expected to grow 3.4 per cent in 2018, up from 1.7 per cent this year.
"In 2018, [Menap] growth is expected to increase to 3.5 per cent, mostly reflecting stronger domestic demand in oil importers and a rebound of oil production in oil exporters," the IMF said, adding that regional insecurity and geopolitical risks still weigh on the outlook.
Iran's economic growth will slide to 3.5 per cent in 2017 from 12.5 per cent in 2016 but is expected to expand 3.8 per cent next year, the fund said. Other oil producing nations are also expected to see a drop in the pace of economic growth this year as the after effects the 2014 oil price crash linger on.
Saudi Arabia, the region's biggest economy, is projected to grow 0.1 per cent in 2017 from 1.7 per cent per cent last year. It is forecast to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2018.
Meanwhile, the pace of economic growth is Kuwait is expected to contract to 2.1 per cent this year is expected recover in 2018, growing at 4.1 per cent. Its GDP expanded 2.5 per cent last year.
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Read more:
Saudi Arabia to return to growth next year, IMF says
Arabian Gulf economies to rebound next year on non-oil growth, report says
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The net oil importers are projected to fare better, led by Pakistan which is estimated to grow by 5.3 per cent in 2017 from 4.5 per cent last year. The economy of the South Asian nation could expand by 5.6 per cent in 2018 next year. The country's economic fortunes have improved since a series of reforms that were linked to an IMF loan. The country has also benefited from investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Egypt, which is recovering from years of political and economic turmoil in the aftermath of the 2011 uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak , is estimated to grow by 4.5 per cent next year from 4.1 per cent this year. It grew by 4.3 per cent in 2016 after the most populous Arab nation devalued its currency in last November and reduced energy subsidies as part of an aid package agreed with the IMF, which helped in attracting international investments and boosted its foreign reserves to a record high in August.
The IMF boosted its forecasts for global growth for this year but said that many countries were plagued by lackluster productivity as evidenced by weak inflation.
The said that it expected global GDP to advance by 3.6 per cent in 2017 and 3.7 per cent in 2018, a 0.1 percentage point increase for both years.
"Notable pickups in investment, trade and industrial production, coupled with strengthening business and consumer confidence are supporting the recovery," the fund said. "However, the recovery is not complete: although the baseline outlook is better, growth remains weak in many countries. The outlook for advanced economies has improved, notably for the euro area, but in many countries inflation remains weak, indicating that slack has yet to be eliminated and prospects for growth in GDP per capita are held back by weak productivity growth and rising old-age dependency ratios."
While generally upbeat, the IMF warned that years of cheap financing had stretched asset valuations, which means that some markets should be watched closely by economic policy makers. The fund also warned that policy makers in China, the world's second biggest economy, and elsewhere would need to rein in credit expansion to minimize risks of a sharp slowdown.
"Many other economies need to guard against a buildup of financial stability risks in a global environment of easy finance and monitor the risks from volatility as advanced economies' central banks gradually withdraw stimulus," it said.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Company%20profile
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SPIDER-MAN%3A%20ACROSS%20THE%20SPIDER-VERSE
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THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
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The five pillars of Islam
The%20specs
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The specs: 2019 Chevrolet Bolt EV
Price, base: Dh138,000 (estimate)
Engine: 60kWh battery
Transmission: Single-speed Electronic Precision Shift
Power: 204hp
Torque: 360Nm
Range: 520km (claimed)
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Remaining fixtures
- August 29 – UAE v Saudi Arabia, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
- September 5 – Iraq v UAE, Amman, Jordan (venue TBC)
The UAE's journey to space
SPEC%20SHEET
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The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Company%20Profile
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
Company%20profile
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Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 400hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh234,000 - Dh329,000
On sale: now
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
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Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
Simran
Director Hansal Mehta
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Soham Shah, Esha Tiwari Pandey
Three stars
Company%20Profile
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Napoleon
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