Crude prices could rise as high as US$150 a barrel if investment in oil and gas production in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) falls sharply below $100 billion a year over the next four years.
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The stark warning was issued in a report released yesterday by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents the world's biggest oil consumers.
"If, between 2011 and 2015, investment in the Mena region runs one third lower than the $100bn per year required, consumers could face a near-term rise in the oil price to $150 a barrel," the IEA said in a statement accompanying its World Energy Outlook 2011.
The statement is at odds with a report released by Opec on Tuesday, which predicted Opec spending of only $30bn each year through 2015.
Of the 12 Opec member states, seven are in the Mena region.
The two reports highlight the friction between the organisations representing producers and consumers, respectively. The IEA officials last week warned that Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel risked a recession equivalent to the 2008 crisis, as they would undermine Asian growth. These fears have since been exacerbated by the looming risk of sovereign default in the euro zone.
"They are risking slowing or stopping the world economy," said Robin Mills, the head of consulting at Manaar Energy in Dubai.
In spite of the risk of another global recession, there is increasing consensus among Opec members on keeping the oil price above $100 a barrel.
On Tuesday, Abdalla El Badri, the organisation's secretary general, reiterated that he did not see the oil price falling below that mark. Last week, Obaid Al Yabhouni, the UAE's Opec governor, and Rostam Qasemi, Iran's oil minister, expressed support for current price levels.
Brent crude prices have averaged about $111 a barrel so far this year, as Libyan oil failed to reach the international markets for the best part of this year with the country engulfed in civil war.
In addition, demand rebounded, with strong economic growth in the Asian markets in particular.
On Tuesday, Opec announced that Saudi Arabia and Venezuela had cut back production last month to accommodate rising Libyan supplies.
Libya produced 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month, from a pre-war level of 1.6 million bpd.
Regional producers have an incentive to limit investment in oil production capacity, and so maintain oil prices, as they are looking to balance budgets burdened with strong infrastructure investment after the Arab Spring.
"The required oil price for their budget to break even has gone up because all their heavy spending on social programmes and so on.
They have shifted their attention towards maximising revenue in the short term," Mr Mills said, referring to Saudi Arabia in particular.