Gulf credit growth on cards as economic outlook brightens

Credit growth in the GCC is expected to improve by the end of the year as brightening economic prospects across the region spur a pick-up in lending, a report says. "Credit remains relatively tight in the Gulf, where the property market correction and troubled regional conglomerates are hampering the banking sector's recovery," the report by the US economic consultancy IHS Global Insight said.

"The region's brighter economic outlook should eventually prompt greater lending by banks, with credit growth picking up by the end of the year." But analysts say credit expansion is likely to be slower in the UAE as Dubai World's debt restructuring clouds the economic outlook for the private sector. Easy access to credit helped to fuel a price bubble in property and other assets in the years leading to the financial crisis, with credit growth reaching levels of 30 per cent.

Banks gradually tightened their credit lines after losing money when the downturn led to a steep drop in property prices. Exposure to Dubai World and the two Saudi conglomerates, the Saad Group and Ahmad Hamad Al Gosaibi and Brothers, added to lenders' nervousness. Now governments in the region are seeking ways to encourage a resumption in lending after almost no loan growth last year. Spurring loans activity is seen as vital as governments look to off-load some of the burden of supporting the economic recovery from the public to the private sector.

But the wait for a completion of Dubai World's debt restructuring is likely to act as an impediment to any improvement in credit growth in the UAE, analysts say. Despite the group saying in May it had reached a deal in principle to restructure US$23.5 billion (Dh86.31bn) with core bank creditors, a final completion of the arrangement has yet to be announced. "We would not expect a pick-up [in credit growth] in the fourth quarter as Dubai World is still a question mark," said Janany Vamadeva, a banking analyst at Al Futtaim HC Securities in Dubai.

"We do not expect an improvement until the first quarter of next year, especially in Dubai." With provisioning for non-performing loans already made by many banks elsewhere in the region, they could now begin to plan ahead for future growth, said Ms Vamadeva. As a result, annual credit growth of about 5 per cent was anticipated in Kuwait and between 5 and 6 per cent in Qatar, compared with only 1 to 2 per cent in the UAE, she said.

Bolstering the lending outlook in Kuwait is a 31bn dinar (Dh394.66bn), four-year plan designed to stimulate private investment through reforms and incentives aimed at the private sector. Improving access to capital for small businesses is a central pillar of the plan. While Saudi Arabia has embarked on one of the largest infrastructure expenditure programmes per capita in the world, much of the investment may come from the government, rather than private-sector lending.

Analysts have argued the government risks crowding out banks by extending interest-free loans to ensure transport and power projects remain on course. "Slow credit growth and delays in implementing infrastructure projects compound the regional risks for economic growth," said Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, the chief economist at Kuwait China Investment Company. @Email:[e-mail]