DUBAI // Gold's latest record-setting rally has little to do with gold and everything to do with the US dollar.
The price of gold leapt to a record, leading a sharp rally in commodity prices. Gold climbed to US$1,060 a troy ounce, its third record in as many days. Copper, wheat and rubber also rose.
Oil futures benefited, too, climbing to $70.26 a barrel and capping a 58 per cent rise so far this year.
Behind this rally, analysts say, is not so much bullishness about commodities demand, although those confident of a global economic recovery reason that commodities will rise apace. The main reason for the latest flight to commodities is concern among investors that soaring US government deficits are undermining the dollar and that they should seek shelters from inflation.
"It's dollar weakness," said Carlos Banon, the director of commodity marketing at Standard Chartered in Dubai. "There's just a little more risk appetite, inflation fear."
The dollar has been steadily declining this year amid concerns that efforts in Washington to stimulate the US economy by pushing interest rates to nearly zero and spending newly minted dollars are undermining the greenback's value. The dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro yesterday. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against the euro and a trade-weighted blend of other major currencies, has fallen to its lowest since August of last year.
The decline of the dollar has intensified a debate over how long it can or should remain the world's dominant currency of trade. Gold, oil and most internationally traded items are priced mainly in dollars and so exporters such as China and the UAE accumulate US dollar reserves as a by-product of their massive trade surpluses. A weakening dollar reduces the buying power of these reserves, which are typically invested in the US and US dollar-denominated securities.
For investors, the prospect of inflation is an argument for buying commodities and stocks anywhere and everywhere. And with signs increasing that Asia and other emerging markets are leading a global upturn, many investors are taking the advice of strategists who say that investing in emerging markets and commodities is "a no-brainer".
"The commodities trade is a weak-dollar trade," Tim Condon, the chief Asian economist with ING in Singapore, told Bloomberg. "The huge expansion of the Federal Reserve's monetary base argues for inflation accelerating."
This so-called reflation rally is also helping stock prices in emerging markets. Investors are borrowing US dollars cheaply in and, in what is known as a carry trade, investing them in markets abroad where they believe they can earn higher returns. Stocks in Dubai rose by 1.4 per cent yesterday to their highest in 11 months.
To some extent, there is real demand behind gold's 16 per cent rally this year. Purchases of gold jewellery - primarily in India, one of the largest markets for gold - have been rising in recent months. According to the World Gold Council, Indian imports rose by 8 per cent in July compared with the same month last year.
Commodities demand also appears to be improving. Better-than-expected third-quarter earnings from Alcoa, the aluminium maker, yesterday underscored what analysts say is improving global demand for metals and other raw materials.
Most of the demand for gold, analysts say, is coming from exchange-trade gold funds, such as the ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares, which started trading on the New York Stock Exchange last month.
Some economists warn that there may be something more ominous than inflation behind gold's rise. Typically, investors fearful of inflation buy commodities and sell bonds, whose yields are eroded by inflation. But this week's rally in gold has been accompanied by a rally in US treasury bonds, which have traditionally been regarded as one of the safest havens an investor can find. The last time gold and treasuries rose together was late last year, when the financial crisis erupted.
A new concerted rally by the two could be a sign of more trouble ahead, they warn.
Some in an increasing minority say persistent weakness in the US economy and continued contraction in credit worldwide - known as deleveraging - is more than offsetting any inflationary effects of government stimulus. They warn that deflation poses a bigger risk than inflation.
Company%20Profile
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Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
Du Football Champions
The fourth season of du Football Champions was launched at Gitex on Wednesday alongside the Middle East’s first sports-tech scouting platform.“du Talents”, which enables aspiring footballers to upload their profiles and highlights reels and communicate directly with coaches, is designed to extend the reach of the programme, which has already attracted more than 21,500 players in its first three years.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
SPECS
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Teams
India (playing XI): Virat Kohli (c), Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Hanuma Vihari, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ishant Sharma, Mohammed Shami
South Africa (squad): Faf du Plessis (c), Temba Bavuma, Theunis de Bruyn, Quinton de Kock, Dean Elgar, Zubayr Hamza, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Senuran Muthusamy, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Vernon Philander, Dane Piedt, Kagiso Rabada, Rudi Second
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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SPECS
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Top 10 most polluted cities
- Bhiwadi, India
- Ghaziabad, India
- Hotan, China
- Delhi, India
- Jaunpur, India
- Faisalabad, Pakistan
- Noida, India
- Bahawalpur, Pakistan
- Peshawar, Pakistan
- Bagpat, India
The Dark Blue Winter Overcoat & Other Stories From the North
Edited and Introduced by Sjón and Ted Hodgkinson
Pushkin Press
How%20champions%20are%20made
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Company%20profile
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Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
T20 WORLD CUP QUALIFIER
Results
UAE beat Nigeria by five wickets
Hong Kong beat Canada by 32 runs
Friday fixtures
10am, Tolerance Oval, Abu Dhabi – Ireland v Jersey
7.30pm, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi – Canada v Oman
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
The%20Roundup
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
SHAITTAN
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Company%20Profile
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Company%20Profile
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SPECS
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Sour%20Grapes
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