Further strain for national economies as millions flee from water shortage

One occurrence of drought in the early 1990s resulted in thousands of people abandoning farms to move to the cities, never to return.

Lack of rain has wider effects than simply the loss of crops, a study by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) shows.

The country is now in the grip of its lowest rainfall in more than a century, and previous droughts created a legacy that lingers today. One in the early 1990s resulted in thousands of people abandoning farms to move to the cities, never to return.

Nasa scientists have pointed to a similar event in the Middle East that forced millions of people out of the countryside to towns, and say this is a significant contributor to the conflict in Syria.

A similar mass movement of people is now underway across the southern African region, according to Refugees International. More than four million people face hunger in Zimbabwe and many are moving into the country’s cities or fleeing into South Africa.

Zimbabwe itself is at risk of becoming overwhelmed by people fleeing there from Malawi, Mozambique and other countries hit by poor rainfall.

The resulting strain on Zimbabwe’s food sector means that millions will require assistance. “World Food Program (WFP) and partners are significantly augmenting operations to reach 13.2 million people by the peak of the lean season in January 2017,” the charity says. Emergency food provision will be needed until next April and it is expected to cost US$636 million, the WFP adds.

For commercial farmers, drought adds to the ongoing struggle of staying in business and in South Africa farmers will need as much as 16.6 billion rand (Dh4.44bn) in the next six months in state aid, farmers union Agri SA say, further straining an already struggling economy. This will be needed to fund feed purchases, cover grants and interest-rate subsidies for growers in financial distress, and also to pay workers.

Another result of drought is one South Africans know all too well; runaway fire. These flare up during hot windy days and destroy remaining grasslands that farmers depend on to feed their cattle. They also destroy large commercial agricultural operations such as timber plantations and fruit orchards. Once destroyed these take up to a decade to return to full production.

Fires also take lives. A devastating conflagration in 1992 killed nine people and destroyed millions of hectares of farmland, SAWS noted.

The country’s famed wildlife parks are also being hit hard. The Kruger Park, which is about the size of Belgium, said last month it would begin culling – shooting – animals to reduce pressure on the land.

Hippos and buffalo will be initially targeted as both species are plentiful. Hippos are especially vulnerable to drought as the pools in which they spend their time dry up and leave them exposed to the sun, which will eventually kill them. By reducing their numbers park rangers hope to reduce suffering and increase the survival rates among the rest.

Meat from the cull will be distributed free to communities living around the park, Kruger Park officials have said.

Cattle farms are also suffering. Herds have been reduced by around 15 per cent, which has resulted in a spike in the cost of dairy products. As the country enters the rainy season, the hope is that the drought will end soon. That may be a forlorn hope.

“There is no indication that we are at an end yet,” says the SAWS senior manager of research Nhlonipho Nhlabatsi. “The data we are seeing suggests drought conditions will persist for a while longer.”

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