The biggest long-term threats to the gold price are rising interest rates, with recent fluctuations also affecting the metal's value. Stefen Chow / Bloomberg News
The biggest long-term threats to the gold price are rising interest rates, with recent fluctuations also affecting the metal's value. Stefen Chow / Bloomberg News

Forget talk of a bubble, gold is going to soar again



As the dramatic events in Athens unfold, investors continue to look for havens: investments that need not perform heroically in the midst of so much uncertainty but are expected to at least conserve wealth.

In the past, this has meant government bonds, currencies such as the US dollar and Swiss franc and, perhaps most notably of all, gold. However, the recent substantial gyrations in the metal's value threaten to damage one of gold's most important credentials.

The biggest long-term threats to the gold price are rising interest rates (demonstrating that governments and monetary authorities believe that they have avoided recession) and parabolic price action (a stratospheric and rapid rise in the price followed by a catastrophic slump). To that can be added a third caveat: excessive price volatility, meaning that investors might no longer view gold as a safe investment, thus undermining one of the most potent arguments for owning the metal.

In August, gold made its first move above US$1,900. Its rapid rise to that level was followed by a somewhat quicker decline of $200. On September 6, the metal once more scaled the peaks and posted an all-time nominal high above $1,920.

However, once more a lack of fresh buying, and fears that gold might indeed constitute a bubble, saw a similar wave of liquidation but this time the fall was twice as large with gold trading as low as $1,530 just three weeks later and a $200 fall being recorded in the last two days of that slump.

So is gold indeed a bubble and are we witnessing the last vestiges of the rally?

Certainly, the Asian public does not seem to think so. At lower levels, demand, and particularly from India, was extremely strong, and while some of the more recent buyers of gold might have exited the market it looks as though stronger hands now own the metal.

However, it has to be noted that this is not fresh demand for gold that has been tapped, but it is more likely to have cannibalised future flows: such that purchases that might otherwise have been left to November were completed in September to take advantage of the lower prices. This does mean that if gold were to fall sharply again the bargain hunters that were so evident on this occasion may well have had their needs met already.

For many people though, it will seem irrational that the value of any investment that is thought of as a haven could fall as politicians continue to debate the outcome for Greece - and by implication Portugal, Italy and Spain.

The situation made even more unstable in that the problems are economic in nature but all the solutions are heavily invested with political significance.

Investors reason, naturally enough, that if the outlook is so uncertain, then why should gold drop along with shares, bonds, the euro, etc? Unfortunately, the markets rarely tend to act with logic in the face of negative headlines and the knee-jerk reaction is generally to sell everything except for the US dollar.

After a period of reflection, though, gold does tend to benefit and rise strongly once more as it did in the aftermath of the Bear Stearns and Lehman bankruptcies and the concerns raised over the size of the sovereign debt crisis.

Normally, the end of September is a time to reflect on European central banks' attitudes to gold and what their selling plans are likely to be.

After all, on September 26, 1999, 15 of these institutions were forced to issue a statement clarifying their intentions and timetabling their gold sales - such was the negative sentiment surrounding gold which had slumped to 19-year lows.

The first five-year agreement allowed for 2,000 tonnes of sales; the next five years saw 2,500 tonnes as the maximum quota. In the last year, which finished on Sunday, the signatories to the latest accord could have sold 400 tonnes but instead managed less than one tonne. The IMF did "borrow" some of the allocation, but the total from them was just 52 tonnes.

Clearly, the notion of selling gold is a dead issue at the European central banks.

Conversely, there has been much media speculation that countries with gold will be forced to sell their holdings and so reduce the potential costs of any bailout. In my opinion, this is extremely unlikely to ever occur for a number of reasons, not least that such asset sales are forbidden under the EU's Maastricht treaty as a way of reducing debt.

Unfortunately, there is a wide body of opinion that sees governments as willing to do anything to avert the current crisis, whether or not any rules are broken.

So a perhaps more compelling argument is that while the gold holdings for some countries are relatively large in comparison to the gold market - the Banca d'Italia's are equivalent to one year's global annual production - they pale into insignificance when compared with the size of the debt that each of these countries have.

Consequently, any state sales would have the efficacy of trying to bale out a sinking ship using a teaspoon while saddled with the additional disadvantage of being extremely unpopular domestically.

I have previously asserted that there are few alternatives to gold as a safe investment, and I still believe that to be the case.

However, a period of quiet reflection and consolidation would be extremely helpful before gold goes on to make fresh all-time highs.

Jonathan Spall is the director of commodities distribution at Barclays Capital and is the author of How to Profit in Gold. He is based in London

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Call of Duty: Black Ops 6

Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher:  Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5

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Andor
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Abu Dhabi traffic facts

Drivers in Abu Dhabi spend 10 per cent longer in congested conditions than they would on a free-flowing road

The highest volume of traffic on the roads is found between 7am and 8am on a Sunday.

Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.

The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.

The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.

Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019

 

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England squad

Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope, Aaron Ramsdale 

Defenders: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Conor Coady, Marc Guehi, Reece James, Harry Maguire, Tyrone Mings, Luke Shaw, John Stones, Ben White

Midfielders: Jude Bellingham, Conor Gallagher, Mason Mount, Jordan Henderson, Declan Rice, James Ward-Prowse

Forwards: Tammy Abraham, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Emile Smith Rowe, Raheem Sterling

Company%20Profile
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The specs
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Power: 268bhp / 536bhp
Torque: 343Nm / 686Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
On sale: Later this year
SPECS

Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
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The Bio

Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre turbo

Power: 181hp

Torque: 230Nm

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

Starting price: Dh79,000

On sale: Now

WandaVision

Starring: Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany

Directed by: Matt Shakman

Rating: Four stars

WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?

1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull

2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight

3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge

4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own

5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed

Name: Brendalle Belaza

From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines

Arrived in the UAE: 2007

Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus

Favourite photography style: Street photography

Favourite book: Harry Potter

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