As the dramatic events in Athens unfold, investors continue to look for havens: investments that need not perform heroically in the midst of so much uncertainty but are expected to at least conserve wealth.
In the past, this has meant government bonds, currencies such as the US dollar and Swiss franc and, perhaps most notably of all, gold. However, the recent substantial gyrations in the metal's value threaten to damage one of gold's most important credentials.
The biggest long-term threats to the gold price are rising interest rates (demonstrating that governments and monetary authorities believe that they have avoided recession) and parabolic price action (a stratospheric and rapid rise in the price followed by a catastrophic slump). To that can be added a third caveat: excessive price volatility, meaning that investors might no longer view gold as a safe investment, thus undermining one of the most potent arguments for owning the metal.
In August, gold made its first move above US$1,900. Its rapid rise to that level was followed by a somewhat quicker decline of $200. On September 6, the metal once more scaled the peaks and posted an all-time nominal high above $1,920.
However, once more a lack of fresh buying, and fears that gold might indeed constitute a bubble, saw a similar wave of liquidation but this time the fall was twice as large with gold trading as low as $1,530 just three weeks later and a $200 fall being recorded in the last two days of that slump.
So is gold indeed a bubble and are we witnessing the last vestiges of the rally?
Certainly, the Asian public does not seem to think so. At lower levels, demand, and particularly from India, was extremely strong, and while some of the more recent buyers of gold might have exited the market it looks as though stronger hands now own the metal.
However, it has to be noted that this is not fresh demand for gold that has been tapped, but it is more likely to have cannibalised future flows: such that purchases that might otherwise have been left to November were completed in September to take advantage of the lower prices. This does mean that if gold were to fall sharply again the bargain hunters that were so evident on this occasion may well have had their needs met already.
For many people though, it will seem irrational that the value of any investment that is thought of as a haven could fall as politicians continue to debate the outcome for Greece - and by implication Portugal, Italy and Spain.
The situation made even more unstable in that the problems are economic in nature but all the solutions are heavily invested with political significance.
Investors reason, naturally enough, that if the outlook is so uncertain, then why should gold drop along with shares, bonds, the euro, etc? Unfortunately, the markets rarely tend to act with logic in the face of negative headlines and the knee-jerk reaction is generally to sell everything except for the US dollar.
After a period of reflection, though, gold does tend to benefit and rise strongly once more as it did in the aftermath of the Bear Stearns and Lehman bankruptcies and the concerns raised over the size of the sovereign debt crisis.
Normally, the end of September is a time to reflect on European central banks' attitudes to gold and what their selling plans are likely to be.
After all, on September 26, 1999, 15 of these institutions were forced to issue a statement clarifying their intentions and timetabling their gold sales - such was the negative sentiment surrounding gold which had slumped to 19-year lows.
The first five-year agreement allowed for 2,000 tonnes of sales; the next five years saw 2,500 tonnes as the maximum quota. In the last year, which finished on Sunday, the signatories to the latest accord could have sold 400 tonnes but instead managed less than one tonne. The IMF did "borrow" some of the allocation, but the total from them was just 52 tonnes.
Clearly, the notion of selling gold is a dead issue at the European central banks.
Conversely, there has been much media speculation that countries with gold will be forced to sell their holdings and so reduce the potential costs of any bailout. In my opinion, this is extremely unlikely to ever occur for a number of reasons, not least that such asset sales are forbidden under the EU's Maastricht treaty as a way of reducing debt.
Unfortunately, there is a wide body of opinion that sees governments as willing to do anything to avert the current crisis, whether or not any rules are broken.
So a perhaps more compelling argument is that while the gold holdings for some countries are relatively large in comparison to the gold market - the Banca d'Italia's are equivalent to one year's global annual production - they pale into insignificance when compared with the size of the debt that each of these countries have.
Consequently, any state sales would have the efficacy of trying to bale out a sinking ship using a teaspoon while saddled with the additional disadvantage of being extremely unpopular domestically.
I have previously asserted that there are few alternatives to gold as a safe investment, and I still believe that to be the case.
However, a period of quiet reflection and consolidation would be extremely helpful before gold goes on to make fresh all-time highs.
Jonathan Spall is the director of commodities distribution at Barclays Capital and is the author of How to Profit in Gold. He is based in London
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And%20Just%20Like%20That...
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
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MATCH INFO
Manchester City 2 (Mahrez 04', Ake 84')
Leicester City 5 (Vardy 37' pen, 54', 58' pen, Maddison 77', Tielemans 88' pen)
Man of the match: Jamie Vardy (Leicester City)
Vikram%20Vedha
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Emirates exiles
Will Wilson is not the first player to have attained high-class representative honours after first learning to play rugby on the playing fields of UAE.
Jonny Macdonald
Abu Dhabi-born and raised, the current Jebel Ali Dragons assistant coach was selected to play for Scotland at the Hong Kong Sevens in 2011.
Jordan Onojaife
Having started rugby by chance when the Jumeirah College team were short of players, he later won the World Under 20 Championship with England.
Devante Onojaife
Followed older brother Jordan into England age-group rugby, as well as the pro game at Northampton Saints, but recently switched allegiance to Scotland.
Company%20Profile
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Martin Sabbagh profile
Job: CEO JCDecaux Middle East
In the role: Since January 2015
Lives: In the UAE
Background: M&A, investment banking
Studied: Corporate finance
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
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ELECTION%20RESULTS
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
FINAL LEADERBOARD
1. Jordan Spieth (USA) 65 69 65 69 - 12-under-par
2. Matt Kuchar (USA) 65 71 66 69 - 9-under
3. Li Haotong (CHN) 69 73 69 63 - 6-under
T4. Rory McIlroy (NIR) 71 68 69 67 - 5-under
T4. Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP) 67 73 67 68 - 5-under
T6. Marc Leishman (AUS) 69 76 66 65 - 4-under
T6. Matthew Southgate (ENG) 72 72 67 65 - 4-under
T6. Brooks Koepka (USA) 65 72 68 71 - 4-under
T6. Branden Grace (RSA) 70 74 62 70 - 4-under
T6. Alexander Noren (SWE) 68 72 69 67 - 4-under
THE BIG MATCH
Arsenal v Manchester City,
Sunday, Emirates Stadium, 6.30pm
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
Credits
Produced by: Colour Yellow Productions and Eros Now
Director: Mudassar Aziz
Cast: Sonakshi Sinha, Jimmy Sheirgill, Jassi Gill, Piyush Mishra, Diana Penty, Aparshakti Khurrana
Star rating: 2.5/5
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The biog
Full name: Aisha Abdulqader Saeed
Age: 34
Emirate: Dubai
Favourite quote: "No one has ever become poor by giving"
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
South Africa v India schedule
Tests: 1st Test Jan 5-9, Cape Town; 2nd Test Jan 13-17, Centurion; 3rd Test Jan 24-28, Johannesburg
ODIs: 1st ODI Feb 1, Durban; 2nd ODI Feb 4, Centurion; 3rd ODI Feb 7, Cape Town; 4th ODI Feb 10, Johannesburg; 5th ODI Feb 13, Port Elizabeth; 6th ODI Feb 16, Centurion
T20Is: 1st T20I Feb 18, Johannesburg; 2nd T20I Feb 21, Centurion; 3rd T20I Feb 24, Cape Town
The specs
Engine 60kwh FWD
Battery Rimac 120kwh Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2) chemistry
Power 204hp Torque 360Nm
Price, base / as tested Dh174,500
UAE jiu-jitsu squad
Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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You may remember …
Robbie Keane (Atletico de Kolkata) The Irish striker is, along with his former Spurs teammate Dimitar Berbatov, the headline figure in this season’s ISL, having joined defending champions ATK. His grand entrance after arrival from Major League Soccer in the US will be delayed by three games, though, due to a knee injury.
Dimitar Berbatov (Kerala Blasters) Word has it that Rene Meulensteen, the Kerala manager, plans to deploy his Bulgarian star in central midfield. The idea of Berbatov as an all-action, box-to-box midfielder, might jar with Spurs and Manchester United supporters, who more likely recall an always-languid, often-lazy striker.
Wes Brown (Kerala Blasters) Revived his playing career last season to help out at Blackburn Rovers, where he was also a coach. Since then, the 23-cap England centre back, who is now 38, has been reunited with the former Manchester United assistant coach Meulensteen, after signing for Kerala.
Andre Bikey (Jamshedpur) The Cameroonian defender is onto the 17th club of a career has taken him to Spain, Portugal, Russia, the UK, Greece, and now India. He is still only 32, so there is plenty of time to add to that tally, too. Scored goals against Liverpool and Chelsea during his time with Reading in England.
Emiliano Alfaro (Pune City) The Uruguayan striker has played for Liverpool – the Montevideo one, rather than the better-known side in England – and Lazio in Italy. He was prolific for a season at Al Wasl in the Arabian Gulf League in 2012/13. He returned for one season with Fujairah, whom he left to join Pune.
UAE%20athletes%20heading%20to%20Paris%202024
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PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Watford v Leicester City (3.30pm)
Brighton v Arsenal (6pm)
West Ham v Wolves (8.30pm)
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
Overview
What: The Arab Women’s Sports Tournament is a biennial multisport event exclusively for Arab women athletes.
When: From Sunday, February 2, to Wednesday, February 12.
Where: At 13 different centres across Sharjah.
Disciplines: Athletics, archery, basketball, fencing, Karate, table tennis, shooting (rifle and pistol), show jumping and volleyball.
Participating countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar and UAE.