When examining the unrest in the region and the repeated talk of contagion, we find that the main culprits for igniting the masses are neither political nor Mena-specific.
After all, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali's regime in Tunisia had been around for 23 years. Hosni Mubarak's rule in Egypt was entering its 30th year. In fact it is the much more basic universal need for sustenance that has driven emotions and the masses to take to the streets.
Although economic hardship has been mentioned in the media as a cause for the uprisings, the focus remained on the countries' political frameworks and corruption. But as the last decades have shown, the majority of people are willing to tolerate living in police states if afforded their basic needs for food and water; necessities that are at the foundation of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Governments around the world would do well to remember this pertinent Spanish saying: Lo que separa la civilización de la anarquía son solo siete comidas (Civilization and anarchy are only seven meals apart).
In June 2008, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Food Price Index rose to an all-time high of 213.5 because of a mix of high oil and fuel prices, the growing use of biofuels, bad weather and soaring futures markets. These record prices sparked riots in countries including Haiti, Bangladesh and Egypt, bringing the issue of increasing basic food costs to the forefront of the world's attention.
However, the drop in global commodity prices within months of the June peak translated into a 35 per cent decrease in the FAO price index by February 2009. The short life of these high prices limited hardships and prevented the escalation of the social unrest that did occur. Last month, however, the FAO price index hit a record level for the second month in a row, reaching 230.8 after breaking the 2008 high in December. This represents a 66 per cent increase from the February 2009 low and 8 per cent over the riot-sparking 2008 levels. Prices of corn, wheat, oats, soybeans and soybean oil have gained over 50 per cent in the past 12 months, and the trend is upward. These realities have revived the debate about the main drivers of the price increases.
The elevated prices are coming at a time when the global economy is undergoing a precarious recovery, with unemployment figures still high in many countries. As in the 2008 global food crisis, multiple factors are coming together to push prices upwards. Analysts differ on which factors are most significant.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum's meeting in Davos, Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, chiefly blamed speculators, accusing them of "pillaging" and calling for further regulation of commodity trading. "It's a chicken and egg situation: speculation feeds on shortages and shortages are made worse by speculation," he said at the conference last month. "A lack of transparency plus a lack of regulation led to an increase in grain prices in a matter of weeks."
Others point to the US Federal Reserve and its policy of quantitative easing. To enable the US to spend its way out of recession, the Fed has been injecting large amounts of cash into the system, which in turn inflates the many dollar-denominated commodities as the US currency weakens.
In effect, the Fed is exporting inflation by printing money that forces its debt burden to be shared globally, a policy that has many finance ministers around the world irate.
Then there is the argument of global population growth and, more specifically, consumption trends in emerging economies. While 2011 is the year we will welcome the seven billionth inhabitant on our little blue planet, it is the rising meat consumption fuelled by the growing wealth in emerging economies, some argue, that has strained food supplies. Diverting food crops towards animal feed that is in turn used to produce the increasingly demanded animal protein is not an efficient calorie-for-calorie trade-off. This creates competition for land, with food crops perhaps losing out, just as they did with the bad energy policies that called for subsidising the production of ethanol, which consumes a lot of corn.
Finally, when all else fails, blame it on the weather. Climate change is a reality accepted by the vast majority, even if its causes are still debated. In the case of wheat, prices have almost doubled because of a sharp decrease in world production. This decrease is principally emanating from Russia and neighbouring countries that have suffered droughts and record heat waves. Other extreme weather events - including dry weather in Brazil and cataclysmic flooding in Australia - have also battered world food production.
Whether you subscribe to the speculators "pillaging" view, the Fed inflationary policies, demographic trends, climate change or any combination of these arguments as an explanation for rising food prices, the most likely inference is a continuation of this trend. As basic goods become too expensive, turmoil will flourish.
Walid Hayeck is the head of asset management at The National Investor
Company%20Profile
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Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
RESULTS
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Brief scores:
Day 2
England: 277 & 19-0
West Indies: 154
Scream%20VI
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Company%20profile
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Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Five expert hiking tips
- Always check the weather forecast before setting off
- Make sure you have plenty of water
- Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
- Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
- Take your litter home with you
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
Common OCD symptoms and how they manifest
Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.
Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.
Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.
Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.
Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.
Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Scoreline
Al Wasl 1 (Caio Canedo 90 1')
Al Ain 2 (Ismail Ahmed 3', Marcus Berg 50')
Red cards: Ismail Ahmed (Al Ain) 77'
RACE CARD AND SELECTIONS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
5,30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
6pm: The President’s Cup Listed (TB) Dh380,000 1,400m
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7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Listed (PA) Dh230,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
The National selections
5pm: RB Hot Spot
5.30pm: Dahess D’Arabie
6pm: Taamol
6.30pm: Rmmas
7pm: RB Seqondtonone
7.30pm: AF Mouthirah
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Company%C2%A0profile
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Company%20profile
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani