In two days, the oil market dispelled the pessimism of two weeks largely dominated by concerns over US-China tensions. Ali Jarekji /Reuters
In two days, the oil market dispelled the pessimism of two weeks largely dominated by concerns over US-China tensions. Ali Jarekji /Reuters

Why is it so hard to get a clear picture of Aramco IPO?



Almost two years have passed since the Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman intimated that Aramco was considering an initial public offering (IPO).

Since then, some more details have crystallised, including that 5 per cent of the company is up for sale, and that the IPO is a firm plan rather than an abstract possibility. Yet the IPO remains mostly mysterious, with most media reports being based on anonymous sources from within the oil behemoth, or unnamed hedge fund managers. Why is it so hard to get transparent analysis? Several factors are at play.

First, much of the background information that would usually be available in the build-up to an IPO, such as objective assessments of the company’s assets, are unavailable due to Aramco’s importance to Saudi Arabia’s national security, in an era where the kingdom faces a multitude of geo-political threats. In contrast, when a company such as the cloud storage major Dropbox considers an IPO, there are no national security concerns that retard the flow of relevant information to prospective investors.

Moreover, while oil is a very mature market, it is remains a fundamentally volatile one, meaning that even the accurate, publicly available information is difficult to analyse. This is partially due to the unpredictable nature of technological progress in the industry itself: there is a lot of uncertainty concerning shale oil, and regarding the efficiency of competing forms of renewable energy. This is reinforced by the presence of significant policy-related uncertainty: will governments ban petrol cars? Will Opec maintain discipline? Will major oil producers suffer supply disruptions caused by violent conflict? In contrast, music-streaming service Spotify operates in a sector largely free from geo-political and technological drama, affording investors much more confidence about the future trajectory of profits.

In addition to these two factors, there is the issue of purposeful misinformation by stakeholders vying for a strategic advantage. While nobody knows the precise value of Aramco - in fact a primary function of an IPO is to provide an objective estimate of the value - we can be confident that it is in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and possibly trillions, meaning that a 5 per cent share issue is big money.

Global financial markets are fiercely competitive, meaning that both buyers and sellers are constantly looking for even the smallest edge. In an IPO that is worth billions of dollars, nudging the needle in your favour can result in a huge windfall, amplifying the incentive to ensure that you get the best deal possible.

________________

Read more:

Crown prince Mohammed reiterates 2018 Aramco IPO timing

Saudi’s Tadawul is raising the stakes as it prepares for Aramco IPO

Aramco chief says lack of investment may hit oil supplies

________________

A key tool in the trader’s toolbox is misinformation. Prospective buyers will feign apathy, and project false doubts in an attempt to dissuade other, competing buyers from purchasing shares, helping to push the price down. Conversely, sellers have an incentive to circulate stories of having second thoughts because they are receiving extremely high direct offers, or because the company doesn’t really need the capital, as this helps push the price up.

This sort of posturing is completely analogous to what you experience in a local souq as you haggle over a decorative rug or a piece of jewellery: you, the buyer, pretend as if you have lots of alternative options, and that you barely even like the goods; while the seller will try hard to convince you that such quality is unavailable at a better price, and that meeting your proposed offer will render the trade unprofitable to them.

At present, other prospective IPO companies, such as Snapchat and Uber, would love to operate in a similar fashion. However, their hands are tied, relatively speaking, because they are operating in markets that are far more transparent and stable than oil. In contrast, stakeholders in the Aramco IPO have much more to work with because of the background uncertainty, the national security concerns and Saudi Arabia’s track record of secretive decision-making on many important policy issues.

Beyond the strategic misinformation emanating from those who perceive a benefit from the IPO, there are also those who oppose it and therefore wish to derail it for their own interests. Recall that a primary reason for the IPO is raising capital for the Vision 2030, a key step in securing Saudi Arabia’s economic future; consequently, the kingdom’s geopolitical rivals are likely to exploit any opportunity to impede the IPO’s progress. Moreover, there is the possibility of opposition from inside Saudi Arabia, too, since the IPO’s other primary goal is the improvement of corporate governance - a process that always creates individual losers, even if the organisation as a whole benefits. This is analogous to the disgruntlement expressed by civil servants when policymakers - including Saudi Arabia’s - announce plans to decrease government red tape.

Expect plenty more “hot air” and jockeying from investors during the next few months. The sensible course of action is to ignore most of it, and to focus on Aramco’s share price at the IPO and in subsequent trading: there is no better measure of value than what people are actually willing to pay for something, rather than what they claim they will pay.

Omar Al-Ubaydli is a researcher at Derasat, Bahrain. We welcome economics questions from our readers via email (omar@omar.ec) or tweet (@omareconomics).

Company%20Profile
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57%20Seconds
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Two products to make at home

Toilet cleaner

1 cup baking soda 

1 cup castile soap

10-20 drops of lemon essential oil (or another oil of your choice) 

Method:

1. Mix the baking soda and castile soap until you get a nice consistency.

2. Add the essential oil to the mix.

Air Freshener

100ml water 

5 drops of the essential oil of your choice (note: lavender is a nice one for this) 

Method:

1. Add water and oil to spray bottle to store.

2. Shake well before use. 

Company%20profile
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Thank You for Banking with Us

Director: Laila Abbas

Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum

Rating: 4/5

'Worse than a prison sentence'

Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.

“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.

“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.

“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.

“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.

“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
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The specs

Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors

Power: 480kW

Torque: 850Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)

On sale: Now

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

A%20QUIET%20PLACE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lupita%20Nyong'o%2C%20Joseph%20Quinn%2C%20Djimon%20Hounsou%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMichael%20Sarnoski%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Jigra
Director: Vasan Bala
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Rated: 3.5/5
Milestones on the road to union

1970

October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar. 

December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.

1971

March 1:  Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.

July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.

July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.

August 6:  The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.

August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.

September 3: Qatar becomes independent.

November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.

November 29:  At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.

November 30: Despite  a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa. 

November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties

December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.

December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.

December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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'Ashkal'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Youssef%20Chebbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fatma%20Oussaifi%20and%20Mohamed%20Houcine%20Grayaa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203S%20Money%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20London%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Zhiznevsky%2C%20Eugene%20Dugaev%20and%20Andrei%20Dikouchine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%245.6%20million%20raised%20in%20total%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Top 5 concerns globally:

1. Unemployment

2. Spread of infectious diseases

3. Fiscal crises

4. Cyber attacks

5. Profound social instability

Top 5 concerns in the Mena region

1. Energy price shock

2. Fiscal crises

3. Spread of infectious diseases

4. Unmanageable inflation

5. Cyber attacks

Source: World Economic Foundation

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The biog

Name: Younis Al Balooshi

Nationality: Emirati

Education: Doctorate degree in forensic medicine at the University of Bonn

Hobbies: Drawing and reading books about graphic design

TRAP

Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue

Director: M Night Shyamalan

Rating: 3/5

Key changes

Commission caps

For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:

• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term). 

• On the protection component, there is a cap  of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).

• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated. 

• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.

• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.

Disclosure

Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.

“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”

Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.

Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.

“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.

Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6

Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher:  Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5

PULITZER PRIZE 2020 WINNERS

JOURNALISM 

Public Service
Anchorage Daily News in collaboration with ProPublica

Breaking News Reporting
Staff of The Courier-Journal, Louisville, Ky.

Investigative Reporting
Brian M. Rosenthal of The New York Times

Explanatory Reporting
Staff of The Washington Post

Local Reporting  
Staff of The Baltimore Sun

National Reporting
T. Christian Miller, Megan Rose and Robert Faturechi of ProPublica

and    

Dominic Gates, Steve Miletich, Mike Baker and Lewis Kamb of The Seattle Times

International Reporting
Staff of The New York Times

Feature Writing
Ben Taub of The New Yorker

Commentary
Nikole Hannah-Jones of The New York Times

Criticism
Christopher Knight of the Los Angeles Times

Editorial Writing
Jeffery Gerritt of the Palestine (Tx.) Herald-Press

Editorial Cartooning
Barry Blitt, contributor, The New Yorker

Breaking News Photography
Photography Staff of Reuters

Feature Photography
Channi Anand, Mukhtar Khan and Dar Yasin of the Associated Press

Audio Reporting
Staff of This American Life with Molly O’Toole of the Los Angeles Times and Emily Green, freelancer, Vice News for “The Out Crowd”

LETTERS AND DRAMA

Fiction
"The Nickel Boys" by Colson Whitehead (Doubleday)

Drama
"A Strange Loop" by Michael R. Jackson

History
"Sweet Taste of Liberty: A True Story of Slavery and Restitution in America" by W. Caleb McDaniel (Oxford University Press)

Biography
"Sontag: Her Life and Work" by Benjamin Moser (Ecco/HarperCollins)

Poetry
"The Tradition" by Jericho Brown (Copper Canyon Press)

General Nonfiction
"The Undying: Pain, Vulnerability, Mortality, Medicine, Art, Time, Dreams, Data, Exhaustion, Cancer, and Care" by Anne Boyer (Farrar, Straus and Giroux)

and

"The End of the Myth: From the Frontier to the Border Wall in the Mind of America" by Greg Grandin (Metropolitan Books)

Music
"The Central Park Five" by Anthony Davis, premiered by Long Beach Opera on June 15, 2019

Special Citation
Ida B. Wells

 

Tree of Hell

Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla

Director: Raed Zeno

Rating: 4/5

Guardians%20of%20the%20Galaxy%20Vol%203
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJames%20Gunn%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chris%20Pratt%2C%20Zoe%20Saldana%2C%20Dave%20Bautista%2C%20Vin%20Diesel%2C%20Bradley%20Cooper%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE BIO:

Favourite holiday destination: Thailand. I go every year and I’m obsessed with the fitness camps there.

Favourite book: Born to Run by Christopher McDougall. It’s an amazing story about barefoot running.

Favourite film: A League of their Own. I used to love watching it in my granny’s house when I was seven.

Personal motto: Believe it and you can achieve it.

Neil Thomson – THE BIO

Family: I am happily married to my wife Liz and we have two children together.

Favourite music: Rock music. I started at a young age due to my father’s influence. He played in an Indian rock band The Flintstones who were once asked by Apple Records to fly over to England to perform there.

Favourite book: I constantly find myself reading The Bible.

Favourite film: The Greatest Showman.

Favourite holiday destination: I love visiting Melbourne as I have family there and it’s a wonderful place. New York at Christmas is also magical.

Favourite food: I went to boarding school so I like any cuisine really.

Joker: Folie a Deux

Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson

Director: Todd Phillips 

Rating: 2/5

Moon Music

Artist: Coldplay

Label: Parlophone/Atlantic

Number of tracks: 10

Rating: 3/5

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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