Global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 to fall short despite solar boost

The rapid growth of renewables in China and the continued use of green infrastructure will drive the industry

Solar panels under construction over the sea are seen in Binzhou. Cumulative solar capacity in China has nearly quadrupled since 2020, the International Energy Agency said. AFP

The commitment to triple the world's renewable energy capacity by 2030 is on pace to fall short, despite the rapid rise of solar energy and favourable policies used by major economies, a new study from the International Energy Agency has revealed.

The volume of renewable energy would grow by 2.7 times by the start of the next decade, which would easily surpass countries' current expectations of 25 per cent, the agency said in its Renewables 2024 report released on Wednesday.

However, the agency said that that would only reach 10,800 gigawatts, just short of the 11,000 gigawatt goal adopted at the Cop28 climate conference. Still, the agency's accelerated scenario is “laying out a pathway for meeting the tripling goal”.

The use of renewables hit a record 3,870 gigawatts last year, according to a March report from the agency, which in July also said that despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy, it is not growing fast enough to meet the 2030 targets.

Tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 was one of the key outcomes of the UAE Consensus, adopted at last year's Cop28, intending to advance global climate goals and promote sustainable development.

Despite this, renewables are moving faster than governments can set targets for, Fatih Birol, executive director of the agency, said,

“This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security – it’s increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world,” he said.

The agency's updated scenario would see China, Europe, India and the US collectively provide 80 per cent of total installed renewable energy capacity globally, which would be boosted by actions such as addressing grid integration and installing solar systems at a faster pace to stimulating investments and land procurement, the agency said.

China is projected to account for about 60 per cent of that expansion, as it is seen to exceed its 1,200-gigawatt target for solar and wind energy capacity by 2030, six years earlier than anticipated. Climate Energy Finance, the Australia-based industry think tank, expected the country to reach that goal in a June report.

Cumulative solar photovoltaic capacity in the world's second-largest economy has nearly quadrupled, while its wind capacity has doubled, since ending feed-in tariffs in 2020 and being driven by cost-competitiveness and policies from Beijing, the agency said.

The country's success “stems from comprehensive support for both large-scale and distributed renewables across all renewable technologies”, the report said.

New solar capacity added between now and 2030 will account for approximately 80 per cent of the growth in renewable power globally by the end of this decade, as adoption accelerates “due to declining costs, shorter permitting timelines and widespread social acceptance”, the agency said.

“Cost-competitiveness and policy support also stimulate the growth of distributed applications among residential and commercial consumers as more households and companies seek to reduce their electricity bills.”

Renewable capacity growth in the EU is expected to double its pace through 2030, underpinned by power purchase tax agreements, putting the 27-member bloc on pace to achieve its 600-gigawatt solar energy capacity goal, the agency said.

Capacity in the US is also expected to double, supported by tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. India, the world's second-biggest producer of coal, would post the fastest rate of growth among large economies, boosted by renewable energy auctions.

“Cost-competitiveness and policy support also stimulate the growth of distributed applications among residential and commercial consumers as more households and companies seek to reduce their electricity bills,” the agency said.

The global fight against climate change remains at a critical juncture and, despite bold pledges, the world remains off-track in its efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

The effects of global warming have become more evident than ever, with record-high temperatures across Europe, Asia, and North America this summer, endangering lives, livelihoods and industries.

This has prompted governments across the globe to turn to renewable energy, introducing policies that would attract investment to build much-needed infrastructure.

Global investment in renewable energy has to more than triple in the next six years to meet 2030s 11,000 gigawatt goal, Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, UAE special envoy for climate change and Cop28 President, said at the 79th UN General Assembly in New York City last month.

In 2021, the agency said that the annual investment in clean energy globally will need to, similarly, more than triple to about $4 trillion by 2030 to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

The lack of investment is being felt in grid infrastructure, which in turn is limiting the ability to support and use renewable energy, the agency said in Wednesday's report.

“Investment in grid infrastructure is lagging, with more advanced projects waiting to be connected,” the agency said, though it acknowledged that “grid reforms in some countries are beginning to deliver results.”

At least 1,650 gigawatts of renewable capacity is currently in advanced stages of development and waiting for a grid connection, 150 gigawatts higher than at this point last year, agency data showed.

But grid queues for projects at early stages of development have decreased, with developments either moving forward or dropping out of the queue due to lack of progress, it added.

“Large untapped renewables potential in emerging and developing economies can be realised if policies improve. High financing costs reduce the economic attractiveness of renewables in most emerging and developing economies, the agency said.

“Measures to reduce risks, including by creating stable policy environments with clear long-term targets, can help unlock additional capacity. In countries with fossil fuel overcapacity with long-term contracts, policymakers could consider renegotiating inflexible power and fuel contracts and accelerating the phase-down of fossil fuel plants.”