Oil prices slide more than 1% amid US recession concerns

Global stocks have tumbled since a jobs report last week heightened fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy

Stock market indexes on display at the New York Stock Exchange. Getty Images

Oil prices extended their losses on Monday as concerns about a recession in the US offset Middle East supply worries.

Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, fell 0.95 per cent to $76.08 a barrel at 6.21pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 1.1 per cent at $72.69 a barrel.

On Friday, Brent settled 3.4 per cent lower at $76.81 a barrel, while WTI closed down 3.66 per cent at $73.52 a barrel.

Global stocks have tumbled since a US jobs report last week heightened fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy, amid concerns the Federal Reserve may be harming economic growth by delaying interest rate cuts.

The US Labour Department reported a softening employment market, with the US economy adding 114,000 jobs last month, down from 179,000 in June and well below economists' expectations of 185,000.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3 per cent, its highest level since October 2021.

Some analysts said that concerns about a recession were overblown, and pointed to strong US oil demand.

“Oil like other asset classes is not immune when investors run for cover and prefer to hold safe haven assets,” Giovanni Staunovo, strategist at UBS told The National.

“Additionally, the sell-off triggered a sell off among investors who bought oil as a hedge against geopolitical tensions, with stops being hit and short-term orientated investors selling on the negative momentum,” Mr Staunovo said.

“The creation of 144,000 jobs in the US is a sign of slowdown of the US economy, not one of a recession.”

Total crude oil and petroleum product supplied, the US Energy Information Administration's proxy for demand, increased by 792,000 barrels a day month-over-month to 20.80 million bpd in May, setting a record high for the month

Meanwhile, US crude inventories, an indicator of fuel demand, fell by 3.4 million barrels in the week that ended on July 26, the EIA data showed.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected oil stocks to decline by 1.1 million barrels.

Crude prices rose about 3 per cent last week following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which led to concerns of a wider regional conflict.

Iran claimed Israel was behind the assassination and threatened “harsh punishment” in retaliation.

“The sudden switch in market mood and expectations over the US economy by definition makes it fickle,” Vandana Hari, chief executive of Singapore-based Vanda Insights told The National.

“The Mideast supply risk has been pushed aside by the panicky sell-off in risk assets. It may spike in the event Iran and Israel engage in direct military conflict, but for the time being the market is probably not assigning it a big probability, going by the events of April,” Ms Hari said.

In April, Iran retaliated for the killing of two senior army generals in a Damascus strike, which Tehran attributed to Israel, by launching more 300 missiles and drones at Israel. Israel responded with a direct military attack on Iranian soil, but the strike was more limited than many experts had predicted.