The emerging markets have been in an uncertain period for some time and Africa and the Middle East are no exception to the rising challenges.
When the oil market crashed three years ago, the GCC, being broadly commodity performance-linked, was unsurprisingly affected. IMF estimates show Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth decreased significantly from 4.1 per cent in 2015 to 1.4 per cent in 2016, and to an expected 0.4 per cent in 2017.
In Oman, another oil-dependent economy, GDP growth was similarly affected, with a slowdown from 4.2 per cent growth in 2015 to an estimated 0.4 per cent in 2017. Both economies have tapped into the debt markets to sustain spending and simultaneously launched new government programmes.
Some African economies linked to commodity prices were also significantly hit; perhaps none more than Nigeria. With a GDP growing at an impressive 6.3 per cent as recently as 2014, Nigeria experienced its first recession in over 25 years when in 2016 its GDP shrunk by 1.5 per cent.
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The challenges of dealing with a novel economic situation were further complicated by an eroding confidence in Nigeria’s naira currency. As a result of the lack of foreign currency within the economy and the inability to continue support for its currency, the naira devalued by 41 per cent throughout 2016.
Although commodity exposed countries have been hit hardest, no market has been immune. Egypt and South Africa, which are less linked to commodities, have also suffered devaluations of about 60 per cent because of geopolitics or poor governance.
The GCC has been largely spared from these fluctuations as the currencies are pegged, but the peg also has drawbacks as the strengthening of the dollar has not encouraged tourist arrivals and made exports more expensive.
Real estate sales in the GCC region have also stagnated in part because of the strong dollar and monetary policy in the Arabian Gulf, which is having a tough time keeping up with the Fed. Although it is highly unlikely these countries will de-peg; this now comes up in conversation, whereas a few years ago it was considered an impossibility.
As challenging as the past few years have been for dollar-based investors in the emerging markets, there is now real opportunity. While the short to medium outlook has changed for these countries because of various economic factors, the fundamental value drivers of these economies remain the same.
Does anyone doubt that there will be an emerging middle class in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Egypt over the decades to come? Saudi Arabia has used this challenging period to announce the Saudi Vision 2030, a long-term and needed reform programme combined with sustainable growth targets. While ambitious, it is the right move for the long-term success of the country and will increase employment, reduce the importance of oil and keep more discretionary income in the local economy.
In terms of Nigeria and Egypt, one can see the middle class growing daily and demanding better products. Visit either country with combined populations of nearly 300 million people and the voracious appetite for consumer goods is clear before you exit the airport.
Nigeria appears to be slowly emerging from its current recession as its Q2 2017 GDP grew by 0.55 per cent, according to the country's national bureau of statistics, ending five consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage. While the government still has many steps to take, not least allowing the currency to freely float, the situation is much better than a year ago.
A combination of recovering oil prices and a well-thought-out foreign currency public debt issuance strategy has assisted Nigeria in building its FX reserves to US$32.1 billion in September this year, with dollar reserves up by 30 per cent from a year earlier. The parallel market naira rate has now converged with a new government sanctioned investor window of 360 naira to the dollar from what was previously a parallel market rate of over 400, showing that, at least in terms of currency, the worst may be over.
We are excited about the investment prospects there now, albeit being cautious around the short term.
Egypt has had an even better 12 months and the government has taken painful financial measures including a major devaluation and foreign direct investment is up 76 per cent from 2014 to 2016, the stock market is up over 100 per cent since the end of 2014, while foreign reserves hit a recent record at $36bn. Both Nigeria and Egypt have also just qualified for the Fifa World Cup in Russia next summer, with Egypt qualifying for the first time since 1990 and that should give a short-term boost in overall morale.
Investing in emerging markets will always come with its risks and currency devaluation will always be one of them. If you are bullish on the long-term prospects of the consumer in Africa and Middle East, get comfortable with currency volatility and find companies that play to consumers up and down the value chain. This will allow you to ride out the storm on the cycle.
Continuous investing in good management teams supported by strong local deal teams is the best way to mitigate the macro risks these regions face; that is the strategy we are pursuing.
Taimoor Labib is the managing director and head of Africa & Middle East private equity at Standard Chartered Bank
SPECS
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The five pillars of Islam
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
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RESULTS
Argentina 4 Haiti 0
Peru 2 Scotland 0
Panama 0 Northern Ireland 0
Where to buy art books in the UAE
There are a number of speciality art bookshops in the UAE.
In Dubai, The Lighthouse at Dubai Design District has a wonderfully curated selection of art and design books. Alserkal Avenue runs a pop-up shop at their A4 space, and host the art-book fair Fully Booked during Art Week in March. The Third Line, also in Alserkal Avenue, has a strong book-publishing arm and sells copies at its gallery. Kinokuniya, at Dubai Mall, has some good offerings within its broad selection, and you never know what you will find at the House of Prose in Jumeirah. Finally, all of Gulf Photo Plus’s photo books are available for sale at their show.
In Abu Dhabi, Louvre Abu Dhabi has a beautiful selection of catalogues and art books, and Magrudy’s – across the Emirates, but particularly at their NYU Abu Dhabi site – has a great selection in art, fiction and cultural theory.
In Sharjah, the Sharjah Art Museum sells catalogues and art books at its museum shop, and the Sharjah Art Foundation has a bookshop that offers reads on art, theory and cultural history.
The Saudi Cup race card
1 The Jockey Club Local Handicap (TB) 1,800m (Dirt) $500,000
2 The Riyadh Dirt Sprint (TB) 1,200m (D) $1.500,000
3 The 1351 Turf Sprint 1,351m (Turf) $1,000,000
4 The Saudi Derby (TB) 1600m (D) $800,000
5 The Neom Turf Cup (TB) 2,100m (T) $1,000,000
6 The Obaiya Arabian Classic (PB) 2,000m (D) $1,900,000
7 The Red Sea Turf Handicap (TB) 3,000m (T) $2,500,000
8 The Saudi Cup (TB) 1,800m (D) $20,000,000
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier
UAE results
Beat China by 16 runs
Lost to Thailand by 10 wickets
Beat Nepal by five runs
Beat Hong Kong by eight wickets
Beat Malaysia by 34 runs
Standings (P, W, l, NR, points)
1. Thailand 5 4 0 1 9
2. UAE 5 4 1 0 8
3. Nepal 5 2 1 2 6
4. Hong Kong 5 2 2 1 5
5. Malaysia 5 1 4 0 2
6. China 5 0 5 0 0
Final
Thailand v UAE, Monday, 7am
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
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The low down on MPS
What is myofascial pain syndrome?
Myofascial pain syndrome refers to pain and inflammation in the body’s soft tissue. MPS is a chronic condition that affects the fascia (connective tissue that covers the muscles, which develops knots, also known as trigger points).
What are trigger points?
Trigger points are irritable knots in the soft tissue that covers muscle tissue. Through injury or overuse, muscle fibres contract as a reactive and protective measure, creating tension in the form of hard and, palpable nodules. Overuse and sustained posture are the main culprits in developing trigger points.
What is myofascial or trigger-point release?
Releasing these nodules requires a hands-on technique that involves applying gentle sustained pressure to release muscular shortness and tightness. This eliminates restrictions in connective tissue in orderto restore motion and alleviate pain. Therapy balls have proven effective at causing enough commotion in the tissue, prompting the release of these hard knots.
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Tips for newlyweds to better manage finances
All couples are unique and have to create a financial blueprint that is most suitable for their relationship, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. He offers his top five tips for couples to better manage their finances.
Discuss your assets and debts: When married, it’s important to understand each other’s personal financial situation. It’s necessary to know upfront what each party brings to the table, as debts and assets affect spending habits and joint loan qualifications. Discussing all aspects of their finances as a couple prevents anyone from being blindsided later.
Decide on the financial/saving goals: Spouses should independently list their top goals and share their lists with one another to shape a joint plan. Writing down clear goals will help them determine how much to save each month, how much to put aside for short-term goals, and how they will reach their long-term financial goals.
Set a budget: A budget can keep the couple be mindful of their income and expenses. With a monthly budget, couples will know exactly how much they can spend in a category each month, how much they have to work with and what spending areas need to be evaluated.
Decide who manages what: When it comes to handling finances, it’s a good idea to decide who manages what. For example, one person might take on the day-to-day bills, while the other tackles long-term investments and retirement plans.
Money date nights: Talking about money should be a healthy, ongoing conversation and couples should not wait for something to go wrong. They should set time aside every month to talk about future financial decisions and see the progress they’ve made together towards accomplishing their goals.
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How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
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A new relationship with the old country
Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates
The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:
ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.
ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.
ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.
Signed
Geoffrey Arthur Sheikh Zayed
Non-oil%20trade
%3Cp%3ENon-oil%20trade%20between%20the%20UAE%20and%20Japan%20grew%20by%2034%20per%20cent%20over%20the%20past%20two%20years%2C%20according%20to%20data%20from%20the%20Federal%20Competitiveness%20and%20Statistics%20Centre.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%2010%20years%2C%20it%20has%20reached%20a%20total%20of%20Dh524.4%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECars%20topped%20the%20list%20of%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20re-exported%20to%20Japan%20in%202022%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh1.3%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJewellery%20and%20ornaments%20amounted%20to%20Dh150%20million%20while%20precious%20metal%20scraps%20amounted%20to%20Dh105%20million.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERaw%20aluminium%20was%20ranked%20first%20among%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20exported%20to%20Japan.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETop%20of%20the%20list%20of%20commodities%20imported%20from%20Japan%20in%202022%20was%20cars%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh20.08%20billion.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5