Economic growth in Oman is expected to accelerate this year and next, as the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer outside Opec boosts oil and gas exports, BMI Research said.
Real gross domestic product - GDP adjusted for inflation - is projected to expand by 3.2 per cent in 2018 and 3.6 per cent in 2019, from an estimated 0.6 per cent last year, BMI, a unit of Fitch Ratings said in a report released on Thursday. However, the outlook from 2020 and beyond is more bearish on oil and gas output and real GDP is expected to moderate, unless the sultanate makes new oil and gas discoveries, it said.
“We expect Oman to see a substantial uptick in real GDP growth over the coming quarters, on the back of rising hydrocarbon sector output," BMI said. "Oil and gas production gains will facilitate an increase in exports, as well as government revenue, which in turn will have knock-on effects on government consumption, fixed investment and private consumption.
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Read more:
Moody's cuts Oman's rating on fiscal deficit, subdued economic growth
Oman unveils expansionary budget for 2018 with similar deficit to 2017
Oman’s banking system outlook changed to negative, Moody's says
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Overall, BMI estimates Oman’s production of crude oil, refined petroleum products and natural gas to expand by 5.2 per cent in 2018 and 3.2 per cent in 2019, from 2 per cent in 2017. The recently initiated production at the Khazzan tight gas field will offer a massive boost to gas output, driving overall hydrocarbon sector growth, with oil production in particular, set to climb in 2019.
BMI forecasts an average Brent price of $75 per barrel in 2019 and $67 in 2018, which are both higher than $54 per barrel in 2017. It expects 2018 will mark the end of Opec-stipulated oil supply cuts, facilitating an uptick in production levels for producers such as Oman.
Oil proceeds make up about 70 per cent of the Oman’s government revenue. The decline in oil prices has forced Muscat to raise debt and privatise some state assets. The sultanate, which is trying to diversify its economy and cut its dependence on hydrocarbons, does not have access to the large cash buffers enjoyed by some of its GCC peers, and therefore has to rely more heavily on capital markets to plug fiscal deficits.
Moody's Investors Service this week downgraded the long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings of Oman by a notch to Baa3. The agency cited larger fiscal deficits and the ongoing weakening of its economy due to subdued growth in the coming years.
The rating agency forecasts Oman’s fiscal deficit to remain at 5 to 7 per cent of GDP in the next five years. The government’s debt burden will exceed 50 per cent of GDP by 2019 and rise above 60 per cent by 2021, up from 40.5 per cent at end-2017. The Omani government, which sold $5 billion worth of bonds a year ago, tapped the debt markets again in January via a $6.5bn bond, the country's largest.
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Matthew Weiner,
Canongate
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
India team for Sri Lanka series
Test squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Priyank Panchal, Mayank Agarwal, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Hanuma Vihari, Shubhman Gill, Rishabh Pant (wk), KS Bharath (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Jayant Yadav, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Sourabh Kumar, Mohammed Siraj, Umesh Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
T20 squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Ruturaj Gaikwad, Shreyas Iyer, Surya Kumar Yadav, Sanju Samson, Ishan Kishan (wk), Venkatesh Iyer, Deepak Chahar, Deepak Hooda, Ravindra Jadeja, Yuzvendra Chahal, Ravi Bishnoi, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Harshal Patel, Jasprit Bumrah, Avesh Khan
Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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Tributes from the UAE's personal finance community
• Sebastien Aguilar, who heads SimplyFI.org, a non-profit community where people learn to invest Bogleheads’ style
“It is thanks to Jack Bogle’s work that this community exists and thanks to his work that many investors now get the full benefits of long term, buy and hold stock market investing.
Compared to the industry, investing using the common sense approach of a Boglehead saves a lot in costs and guarantees higher returns than the average actively managed fund over the long term.
From a personal perspective, learning how to invest using Bogle’s approach was a turning point in my life. I quickly realised there was no point chasing returns and paying expensive advisers or platforms. Once money is taken care off, you can work on what truly matters, such as family, relationships or other projects. I owe Jack Bogle for that.”
• Sam Instone, director of financial advisory firm AES International
"Thought to have saved investors over a trillion dollars, Jack Bogle’s ideas truly changed the way the world invests. Shaped by his own personal experiences, his philosophy and basic rules for investors challenged the status quo of a self-interested global industry and eventually prevailed. Loathed by many big companies and commission-driven salespeople, he has transformed the way well-informed investors and professional advisers make decisions."
• Demos Kyprianou, a board member of SimplyFI.org
"Jack Bogle for me was a rebel, a revolutionary who changed the industry and gave the little guy like me, a chance. He was also a mentor who inspired me to take the leap and take control of my own finances."
• Steve Cronin, founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com
"Obsessed with reducing fees, Jack Bogle structured Vanguard to be owned by its clients – that way the priority would be fee minimisation for clients rather than profit maximisation for the company.
His real gift to us has been the ability to invest in the stock market (buy and hold for the long term) rather than be forced to speculate (try to make profits in the shorter term) or even worse have others speculate on our behalf.
Bogle has given countless investors the ability to get on with their life while growing their wealth in the background as fast as possible. The Financial Independence movement would barely exist without this."
• Zach Holz, who blogs about financial independence at The Happiest Teacher
"Jack Bogle was one of the greatest forces for wealth democratisation the world has ever seen. He allowed people a way to be free from the parasitical "financial advisers" whose only real concern are the fat fees they get from selling you over-complicated "products" that have caused millions of people all around the world real harm.”
• Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.org
"In an industry that’s synonymous with greed, Jack Bogle was a lone wolf, swimming against the tide. When others were incentivised to enrich themselves, he stood by the ‘fiduciary’ standard – something that is badly needed in the financial industry of the UAE."
Brief scoreline
Switzerland 0
England 0
Result: England win 6-5 on penalties
Man of the Match: Trent Alexander-Arnold (England)
U19 World Cup in South Africa
Group A: India, Japan, New Zealand, Sri Lanka
Group B: Australia, England, Nigeria, West Indies
Group C: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Scotland, Zimbabwe
Group D: Afghanistan, Canada, South Africa, UAE
UAE fixtures
Saturday, January 18, v Canada
Wednesday, January 22, v Afghanistan
Saturday, January 25, v South Africa
UAE squad
Aryan Lakra (captain), Vriitya Aravind, Deshan Chethyia, Mohammed Farazuddin, Jonathan Figy, Osama Hassan, Karthik Meiyappan, Rishabh Mukherjee, Ali Naseer, Wasi Shah, Alishan Sharafu, Sanchit Sharma, Kai Smith, Akasha Tahir, Ansh Tandon
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre flat-six twin-turbocharged
Transmission: eight-speed PDK automatic
Power: 445bhp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh474,600
On Sale: Now
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
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