As the European Union presents its plan for the UK’s Brexit transition, many governments are willing to push the expiration date beyond the December 2020 deadline they’ll set out as their official stance.
During internal discussions in Brussels, several nations, including Hungary, Sweden and Ireland, lobbied for a more flexible approach to the length of the transition phase than the one finalised by diplomats this week, three people familiar with the talks said.
Privately, many EU officials believe the transition period will be prolonged as it becomes obvious to the UK government that the type of trade deal it wants will be difficult to reach within the the next three years.
If adjustments to the Brexit transition “timetable turn out to be required, I believe it would only be common sense to make them,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said Thursday during a speech in Dublin.
The bloc’s conditions for the transition period, which are likely to be accepted almost wholesale by the British government, represent EU membership in all but name, with the country relinquishing the power to vote or influence decisions. While business would be pleased at the prospect of an extendable grace period that would give them time to prepare for the new regime, it would reignite fears among Brexit backers that the country isn’t really leaving the EU at all.
The UK will remain subject to rulings by the European Court of Justice -- a taboo for UK euroskeptics -- and will have to allow EU citizens to live and work in the UK as they do now. Britain will also keep up its payments into the EU budget during the grace period, which businesses are desperate to pin down as soon as possible.
The EU has been working on its position for the transition period for nearly two months. It was finalised by diplomats on Wednesday and will be signed off by representatives from the 27 governments at a meeting in Brussels on Monday. Talks with the UK will begin shortly afterwards.
According to a draft of the EU’s position, the 27 remaining governments will say the transition should be “clearly defined and precisely limited in time,’’ and “should not last beyond December 31, 2020.’’ But many countries are willing to be much more flexible, the people said. Germany led the group of countries preferring to set out a strict deadline, one of the people said.
As it stands, the wording -- "should" rather than "shall" -- leaves wiggle room, according to another European diplomat, who expects both sides would agree to an extension if it became clear that more time was needed to complete a trade deal.
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Brexit transition period will be agreed by March
Brexit stokes Irish trade concerns even as Dublin benefits
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While the UK government says it aims to have the bulk of a future trading relationship agreed before it leaves the bloc in March 2019, many British officials and the EU think the two sides will spend most of the transition negotiating the future trade deal.
Britain doesn’t rule out the transition being extended in certain sectors to allow the easier arrangements to be implemented first, a UK official said. Some on the EU side would be comfortable with the arrangement lasting indefinitely, one of the people familiar with the EU discussions said.
While UK officials are relaxed about how long the transition phase could last -- and Prime Minister Theresa May has kept it vague by referring to a period of around two years -- a very prolonged transition would be unacceptable to parts of the Conservative Party.
Hard-line Brexit backer Jacob Rees-Mogg has already expressed alarm at the transition plans. He told Brexit Secretary David Davis this week that forcing the UK to accept the rule of the ECJ and abide by the regulations of the single market during the transition period would make Britain “a vassal state.”
On Friday, Davis will set out his plan for a status quo transition, which will see the “current terms” of EU membership of the single market and customs union extended.
The UK must have the power to negotiate and sign new trade agreements with countries outside the EU during the period after exit day in March 2019, Davis will say. These deals won’t enter into force until after the transition period ends. “Participating in a customs union should not preclude us from formally negotiating — or indeed signing — trade agreements,” he will say on Friday.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes.
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com
How to get exposure to gold
Although you can buy gold easily on the Dubai markets, the problem with buying physical bars, coins or jewellery is that you then have storage, security and insurance issues.
A far easier option is to invest in a low-cost exchange traded fund (ETF) that invests in the precious metal instead, for example, ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) and iShares Physical Gold (SGLN) both track physical gold. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF invests directly in mining companies.
Alternatively, BlackRock Gold & General seeks to achieve long-term capital growth primarily through an actively managed portfolio of gold mining, commodity and precious-metal related shares. Its largest portfolio holdings include gold miners Newcrest Mining, Barrick Gold Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines and the NewMont Goldcorp.
Brave investors could take on the added risk of buying individual gold mining stocks, many of which have performed wonderfully well lately.
London-listed Centamin is up more than 70 per cent in just three months, although in a sign of its volatility, it is down 5 per cent on two years ago. Trans-Siberian Gold, listed on London's alternative investment market (AIM) for small stocks, has seen its share price almost quadruple from 34p to 124p over the same period, but do not assume this kind of runaway growth can continue for long
However, buying individual equities like these is highly risky, as their share prices can crash just as quickly, which isn't what what you want from a supposedly safe haven.
F1 drivers' standings
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 281
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 222
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 177
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 138
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 93
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 86
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 56
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
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The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
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