India's economy shrank by nearly a quarter between April and June, much more than forecast and pointing to a longer than previously expected recovery with analysts calling for further stimulus.
Consumer spending, private investments and exports all collapsed during the world's strictest lockdown imposed in late March to combat the Covid-19 pandemic and India – the world's fastest-growing large economy until a few years ago – now looks to be headed for its first full-year contraction since 1980.
Gross domestic product shrank by a record 23.9 per cent in April-June from a year earlier, official data showed on Monday, compared with a Reuters poll that forecast an 18.3 per cent contraction.
Krishnamurthy Subramanian, chief economist at the Ministry of Finance, said India's economy was set for a "V-shaped" recovery and should perform better in the next few quarters as indicated by a pickup in rail freight, power consumption and tax collections.
Some private economists, however, said the fiscal year that began in April could see a contraction of nearly 10 per cent, the worst performance since India won independence from British colonial rule in 1947, which is likely to push millions more into poverty.
"Given the limited fiscal space and the need to stimulate a more durable growth, the growth recovery will be gradual and is likely to continue into [the first half of fiscal 2022]," said Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist at Kotak Institutional Equities, Mumbai.
Consumer spending – the main driver of the economy – dropped 31.2 per cent year-on-year in April-June compared to a 2.6 per cent fall in the previous quarter, data showed, while capital investments were down 47.9 per cent, compared to a 2.1 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a $266 billion (Dh977bn) stimulus package in May, including credit guarantees on bank loans and free food grains for poor people, but consumer demand and manufacturing have yet to recover.
The Reserve Bank of India, which has reduced the benchmark repo rate by a total of 115 basis points since February, is expected to cut interest rates to boost growth after keeping them on hold this month amid rising inflation.
The coronavirus has been spreading in India faster than anywhere else in the world, with more than 3.6 million people already infected and a death toll of over 64,400.
Continuing restrictions on transport, educational institutions and restaurants have hit manufacturing, services and retail sales, while keeping millions of workers out of jobs.
Manufacturing has already entered recession as output fell 39.3 per cent in April-June after falling 1.4 per cent in the previous quarter, and construction and trade services plunged by around 50 per cent.
With an annual growth of 3.4 per cent in the April-June quarter, the farm sector, which accounts for 15 per cent of economic output, offered some hope the rural economy will be able to support millions of migrant workers who have returned to their villages.
Still, Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist at L&T Financial Holdings, said the government will have to take more steps to boost the economy.
"Unless the central and state governments focus on restarting the economic machine completely, the real process of repair and reconstruction will not gain momentum," she said.
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Sawt Assalam, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami.
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Foah, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel.
6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Faiza, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: RB Dixie Honor, Antonio Fresu, Helal Al Alawi.
7.30pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Boerhan, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The Travel Diaries of Albert Einstein The Far East, Palestine, and Spain, 1922 – 1923
Editor Ze’ev Rosenkranz
Princeton
Despacito's dominance in numbers
Released: 2017
Peak chart position: No.1 in more than 47 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Lebanon
Views: 5.3 billion on YouTube
Sales: With 10 million downloads in the US, Despacito became the first Latin single to receive Diamond sales certification
Streams: 1.3 billion combined audio and video by the end of 2017, making it the biggest digital hit of the year.
Awards: 17, including Record of the Year at last year’s prestigious Latin Grammy Awards, as well as five Billboard Music Awards
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
