Urjit Patel on Monday announced he was stepping down as governor of the Reserve Bank of India.EPA
Urjit Patel on Monday announced he was stepping down as governor of the Reserve Bank of India.EPA

India central bank governor in shock resignation



Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Urjit Patel resigned for "personal reasons" on Monday, a decision analysts linked to intense pressure on the central bank from the government to ease regulatory curbs.

"On account of personal reasons, I have decided to step down from my current position effective immediately," Mr Patel said in a statement on the RBI website after financial markets had closed.

Analysts and market watchers said the recent dispute between the RBI and the government could have been a major factor in Mr Patel's decision to resign.

"Quite clearly the resignation of Urjit Patel shows that nothing has changed," said Yashwant Sinha, a former finance minister and member of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

"The resignation is a clear sign of the government trying to interfere with the working of the RBI," he added.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has been putting pressure on the RBI to ease its regulatory curbs on some banks, infuse more liquidity and relax capital norms as it faces a slowing economy ahead of general elections due by May.

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RBI Deputy governor Viral Acharya said in a speech in October that undermining a central bank's autonomy could be "catastrophic", prompting a public dispute that added to the rift between the bank and government.

The Modi government has stacked the RBI's 18-member board with its own nominees, in what critics say is a move to exert greater control over the central bank's regulatory powers.

Patel's sudden resignation is expected to roil financial markets on Tuesday. Investors will be keen to know who is Patel's replacement and the direction of the central bank's financial and monetary policy, analysts said.

"Markets certainly will be concerned unless there is further clarification that come through tonight," said R Sivakumar, head of fixed income at Axis Mutual Fund.

"I think tomorrow and over the next few days we can expect heightened volatility in the markets," he added.

Indian rupee one-month forwards slumped 1.6 per cent, the most since August, while stocks and bonds are expected to extend declines Tuesday as investors assess the fallout of the resignation.

“This was completely unexpected coming just ahead of a scheduled board meeting. We will see a knee-jerk selloff in all asset classes Tuesday,” according to Lakshmi Iyer, head of fixed income at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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