Energy prices are set average 32 per cent higher this year than in 2025 as the war in the Middle East and damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure squeeze supplies, the World Bank said on Wednesday.
The jump is feeding through to metals, food and fertiliser, according to the bank's according to its latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The overall commodity price index is forecast to climb 23 per cent in 2026, with base metals such as aluminium, copper and tin up 25 per cent, gold and other precious metals up 40 per cent. Food commodities such as grains and vegetable oils are up about 10 per cent as hostilities in the Black Sea disrupt shipments.
Brent crude is forecast to increase from an average of $69 per barrel in 2025 to $91 per barrel this year, before easing to $79 in 2027, it said. The global benchmark was trading at roughly $115 a barrel on Wednesday.
Overall commodity prices are set to ease by 7 per cent in 2027. Energy prices could rise further if the Iran war intensifies or that damage persists, it said.
“Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist.
“Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth.”
The International Monetary Fund earlier this month said it expected global headline inflation to rise to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before easing to 4.1 per cent next year, with energy importers facing the most challenging outlook.
The bank has so far provided $8.7 billion in support to 25 countries affected by the Iran war, the report said. Among them, 10 countries have reoriented existing programmes to finance crisis-related expenses, and 19 have accessed new financing, with some countries using both.
The World Bank said it can scale up its support to $80 billion to $100 billion if the economic fallout persists, compared to its current estimate of $50 billion to $60 billion,
Global oil supply is projected to decline 5.2 per cent in 2026, representing the largest drop since the 1970s oil crisis. European natural gas prices are expected to jump by nearly 60 per cent due to disruptions in Middle East exports, leading to more buyer competition.
Food prices are forecast to rise a further 7 per cent in 2027, a cumulative increase of nearly 18 per cent over two years.
In an adverse scenario, combining an escalation in the Middle East, continued damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure, a record El Nino and further Black Sea disruptions, Brent would average $105 a barrel in 2027, and food prices would be 12 per cent above the baseline forecast.
Metals and minerals prices are set to reach a new high in 2026, with aluminium, copper and tin all on track for records, driven by supply disruptions and demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres.
Average fertiliser prices were forecast to increase 14 per cent in 2026, reflecting a surge in urea prices earlier this year, before returning to 2025 levels in 2027 on declining energy costs and greater access to ammonia and sulphur.
