Investors favour Donald Trump over Kamala Harris for US economic leadership, survey finds

Nearly 55% of investors feel that Joe Biden’s economic record could harm Harris’s chances of winning

Voters cast their ballots during the first day of early voting at a polling station in Detroit, Michigan, on October 19. Bloomberg

About 61 per cent of investors believe former president Donald Trump would be the best choice for the US economy before the 2024 election, according to a survey released by global financial platform Investing.com on Thursday.

While Republican candidate Mr Trump remained the favoured candidate, the survey also showed growing confidence in Vice President Kamala Harris, with 23 per cent of respondents supporting her economic prospects, up from the 16 per cent who backed President Joe Biden in Investing.com’s 2020 pre-election survey.

Despite this, 55 per cent of investors feel that Mr Biden’s economic record could harm Ms Harris’s chances of winning, with only 22 per cent believing it would help.

Nearly 80 per cent of investors said that the current state of the economy, including inflation and high consumer debt, influences their view of Ms Harris as a presidential candidate, with 52 per cent saying it affects them to a large extent and 28 per cent moderately.

“Although the market and the Fed have already declared victory over inflation, the ghost of price rises still plays a key role in the average American's daily life and, consequently, in the decision-making process when choosing who to vote for,” said Thomas Monteiro, senior analyst at Investing.com.

“That is not only because wages have only now managed to grow faster than inflation but also because, with rates held at a high for an extended period, consumer credit is at a record high of $5.1 trillion – meaning that Americans are more indebted than ever.”

The survey, which was conducted between October 8 and 18, is based on polling 1,117 US-based investors from Investing.com's user database.

The US presidential election on November 5 will take place amid growing concerns over the state of the economy, including inflation, consumer debt and wage growth. Investors are particularly focused on how each candidate's policies will affect various sectors, making this election crucial for the US and global markets.

About six out of 10 respondents believe that the economic performance of Mr Trump’s previous presidency and his foreign policy would have a positive impact on the economy, compared to only 28 per cent for Ms Harris.

Investors also expressed differing views on sector performance under each candidate, with Mr Trump seen as boosting oil and gas (71 per cent), cryptocurrency, defence (both 46 per cent), industrials (39 per cent), technology (37 per cent), real estate and finance companies (both 35 per cent).

They saw a Harris victory as mostly benefitting renewable energy (52 per cent), electric vehicles (47 per cent) and health care (40 per cent).

Although each candidate may be of benefit to different sectors of the economy, the overall outlook for the S&P 500, a major stock market index, is expected to remain positive regardless of who wins the election, said Mr Monteiro. The S&P 500 has jumped nearly 22.3 per cent since the start of the year.

“Against this backdrop, the sweet spot for the market would be having a divided government, as that would diminish the particular risks associated with each candidate … that is, higher corporate taxation for Harris and an ad hoc China policy for Trump," he said. "This holds particularly true given that the market seems to have looked past these risks so far."

The S&P 500 has jumped nearly 22.3 per cent since the start of the year.

In key battleground states that could determine the election outcome, results varied significantly. States such as Arizona and Nevada viewed Ms Harris as a much closer competitor to Mr Trump in terms of economic impact, while Ohio and Florida were even more strongly in favour of Mr Trump compared to the national average.