Resource-rich countries across the world, including in the GCC, are often described as suffering from the "resource curse", whereby a fortuitous endowment of natural resources, such as oil or gold, ends up having an adverse effect on the economy. Among laypeople, this view has been popularised by films such as Blood Diamond, depicting economies destroyed by the conflict that natural resources can spawn.
Much has been written about the resource curse, yet there are many misconceptions about the mechanisms underlying the phenomenon, especially a manifestation commonly referred to as “Dutch disease”, which is one of many explanations for the occasional economic underperformance of resource-rich countries.
The Economist magazine coined the term "Dutch disease" to describe what the Netherlands experienced during the 1970s. Large gas reserves were discovered in 1959, and after the fields were developed, Dutch exports boomed. Normally, policymakers would welcome such a change, but during the period 1970-77, unemployment increased to 5.1 per cent from 1.1 per cent, and private sector investment shrunk, leaving many analysts puzzled as to whether the gas discovery was a blessing or a curse.
To understand Dutch disease, we first need to understand the relationship between the trade balance and the exchange rate. In a country with a flexible exchange rate, when exports exceed imports, known as a current account surplus, then there is a net outflow of the country’s currency, or equivalently, there is a net inflow of foreign currencies.
This cannot go on forever, as the country’s currency would be depleted. Thus, like all competitive markets, the price of the currency will rise to bring net outflows closer to zero, known as currency appreciation: as the value of the currency rises, the price that foreigners pay for exports rises, making them less attractive to foreigners, and the price that domestic people pay for imports falls, making them more attractive, balancing the current account. Conversely, trade deficits create downward pressure on a country’s currency.
Now imagine that a country with a flexible exchange rate and a balanced current account suddenly discovers a huge oilfield and starts exporting large amounts of oil. Initially, this will disrupt the trade balance, as exports will exceed imports; over time, the exchange rate will appreciate and the current account will rebalance. Dutch disease is a two-part problem.
First, all exporting industries will suffer declining demand for their output as the exchange rate rises. Thus, compared to the situation before the arrival of oil, oil exports rise, but at the expense of non-oil exports. This non-oil contraction constitutes the stationary component of Dutch disease, also known as oil “crowding out” non-oil exports.
Second, oil (and other natural resources) tend to be industries with low employment, low levels of technological progress, and low knowledge linkages with other industries, which makes them comparatively unattractive drivers of growth within an economy. In contrast, exporting conventional manufacturing goods is considered desirable, because the sector is labour-intensive (direct job creation). Moreover, the sector regularly witnesses productivity improvements, and R&D conducted in the area can be usefully applied to other sectors, boosting the rest of the economy indirectly.
Thus, shifting the economy away from manufacturing towards oil can result in a decline in job growth and a diminution of broadly beneficial technological progress. These long-term costs constitute the dynamic component of Dutch disease.
Since the Dutch disease mechanism relies upon movements in the value of a country’s currency, the most straightforward countermeasure is to neutralise the exchange rate, for example by operating a fixed exchange rate regime. The Dutch attempted some countervailing currency manipulation once they had assessed that the expensive guilder (the Dutch currency at the time) was stalling the economy, by lowering interest rates, but the plan was ineffective as it encouraged domestic capital to flee the Netherlands in search of higher returns elsewhere.
In countries with a fixed exchange rate – including the GCC countries, which peg their currencies to the US dollar – when a trade surplus emerges due to oil exports, the government and central bank simply accumulate foreign currencies without spending them, often depositing them in foreign assets (such as foreign bonds and shares). Moreover, they may choose to print money to artificially engineer a countervailing downward pressure on the exchange rate.
During the sustained period of high oil prices (2005-14), GCC currencies would definitely have appreciated had they been flexible. As it happens, even in the event of an appreciation, the GCC countries do not have any substantial exporting manufacturing industries that will contract, meaning that Dutch disease is a non-issue in the GCC.
More generally, it should be noted that the concept of a resource curse implicitly refers to economies that would be thriving were it not for the discovery of the natural resources. By virtue of their desert climates, the GCC countries would have a hard time operating anything close to a modern economy were it not for oil. For centuries, the indigenous peoples of the GCC region have toiled in arguably the toughest conditions known to man, a far cry from the temperate conditions and fertile lands of the Netherlands.
Despite their inevitable, climate-induced dependence upon oil, the GCC countries still have a variety of ways of structuring their economies. The emphasis on top-down diversification in all of the GCC economic visions suggests that, left to its own devices, the private sector is not best placed to take advantage of the opportunities offered by natural resources, for reasons that mimic some of the alternative resource curse mechanisms discussed in the literature. We will explore these in the coming three weeks.
Omar Al Ubaydli is programme director for international and geopolitical studies at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies, and an affiliated associate professor of economics at George Mason University. He welcomes economics questions from readers via email (omar@omar.ec) or tweet (@omareconomics).
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Racecard:
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah (PA) | Group 2 | US$55,000 (Dirt) | 1,600 metres
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint (TB) | Group 2 | $250,000 (Turf) | 1,000m
7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,600m
8.15pm: Meydan Trophy | Conditions (TB) | $100,000 (T) | 1,900m
8.50pm: Balanchine | Group 2 (TB) | $250,000 (T) | 1,800m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (D) | 1,200m
10pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,410m.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Astroworld
Travis Scott
Grand Hustle/Epic/Cactus Jack
The biog
Favourite book: Men are from Mars Women are from Venus
Favourite travel destination: Ooty, a hill station in South India
Hobbies: Cooking. Biryani, pepper crab are her signature dishes
Favourite place in UAE: Marjan Island
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
MATCH INFO
Real Madrid 3 (Kroos 4', Ramos 30', Marcelo 37')
Eibar 1 (Bigas 60')
A Prayer Before Dawn
Director: Jean-Stephane Sauvaire
Starring: Joe Cole, Somluck Kamsing, Panya Yimmumphai
Three stars
FULL%20RESULTS
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Elvis
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The biog
Name: Sarah Al Senaani
Age: 35
Martial status: Married with three children - aged 8, 6 and 2
Education: Masters of arts in cultural communication and tourism
Favourite movie: Captain Corelli’s Mandolin
Favourite hobbies: Art and horseback ridding
Occupation: Communication specialist at a government agency and the owner of Atelier
Favourite cuisine: Definitely Emirati - harees is my favourite dish
Nick's journey in numbers
Countries so far: 85
Flights: 149
Steps: 3.78 million
Calories: 220,000
Floors climbed: 2,000
Donations: GPB37,300
Prostate checks: 5
Blisters: 15
Bumps on the head: 2
Dog bites: 1
Usain Bolt's World Championships record
2007 Osaka
200m Silver
4x100m relay Silver
2009 Berlin
100m Gold
200m Gold
4x100m relay Gold
2011 Daegu
100m Disqualified in final for false start
200m Gold
4x100m relay Gold
2013 Moscow
100m Gold
200m Gold
4x100m relay Gold
2015 Beijing
100m Gold
200m Gold
4x100m relay Gold
Company%C2%A0profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Grubtech
Founders: Mohamed Al Fayed and Mohammed Hammedi
Launched: October 2019
Employees: 50
Financing stage: Seed round (raised $2 million)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
The five pillars of Islam
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GREATEST ROYAL RUMBLE CARD
The line-up as it stands for the Greatest Royal Rumble in Saudi Arabia on April 27
50-man Royal Rumble
Universal Championship
Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns
Casket match
The Undertaker v Rusev
Intercontinental Championship
Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
SmackDown Tag Team Championship
The Bludgeon Brothers v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship
Sheamus and Cesaro v Bray Wyatt and Matt Hardy
United States Championship
Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
Singles match
Triple H v John Cena
To be confirmed
AJ Styles will defend his WWE World Heavyweight title and Cedric Alexander his Cruiserweight Championship, but matches have yet to be announced
THE BIO
Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old
Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai
Favourite Book: The Alchemist
Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail
Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna
Favourite cuisine: Italian food
Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
Getting there
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Tbilisi from Dh1,025 return including taxes
Company%20Profile
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Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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RESULT
Manchester United 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Man United: Sanchez (24' ), Herrera (62')
Spurs: Alli (11')
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Company%20Profile
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Champions parade (UAE timings)
7pm Gates open
8pm Deansgate stage showing starts
9pm Parade starts at Manchester Cathedral
9.45pm Parade ends at Peter Street
10pm City players on stage
11pm event ends
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
In Full Flight: A Story of Africa and Atonement
John Heminway, Knopff
FIGHT CARD
Fights start from 6pm Friday, January 31
Catchweight 82kg
Piotr Kuberski (POL) v Ahmed Saeb (IRQ)
Women’s bantamweight
Cornelia Holm (SWE) v Corinne Laframboise (CAN)
Welterweight
Omar Hussein (JOR) v Vitalii Stoian (UKR)
Welterweight
Josh Togo (LEB) v Ali Dyusenov (UZB)
Flyweight
Isaac Pimentel (BRA) v Delfin Nawen (PHI)
Catchweight 80kg
Seb Eubank (GBR) v Mohamed El Mokadem (EGY)
Lightweight
Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Ramadan Noaman (EGY)
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) v Reydon Romero (PHI)
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Juho Valamaa (FIN)
Featherweight
Elias Boudegzdame (ALG) v Austin Arnett (USA)
Super heavyweight
Roman Wehbe (LEB) v Maciej Sosnowski (POL)