Fiery failures are no stranger to the space game.
It is what happens when you push the boundaries of what technology can do, where people can go. And it happened again to Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo on Friday.
In the past decade, the space industry has tried to go from risky and government-run to routine private enterprise – so routine that if you have lots of money you can buy a ticket on a private spaceship and become a space tourist.
More than 500 people have booked a flight, including the US pop star Justin Bieber, the actor Ashton Kutcher and the little known space scientist Alan Stern.
Virgin Galactic – backed by Abu Dhabi’s Aabar Investments – says it is still on track to become the world’s first commercial spaceline, having accepted more than $80 million in deposits from a clientele that includes some of the world’s highest net-worth individuals.
But it all depends on flying becoming safe and routine. Last week has not helped.
Three days after a private unmanned Orbital Sciences rocket taking cargo up to the International Space Station blew up six seconds into its flight, a test flight of SpaceShipTwo exploded over the Mojave Desert with two people on board, killing one crew member.
The developments have reignited the debate about the role of business in space and whether it is or will ever be safe enough for everyday people looking for an expensive 80km high thrill ride.
“It’s a real setback to the idea that lots of people are going to be taking joyrides into the fringes of outer space any time soon,” says John Logsdon, a retired space policy director at George Washington University. “There were a lot of people who believed that the technology to carry people is safely at hand.”
The issue for space tourism might be, “if it survives”, Mr Logsdon says. But he thinks its momentum in recent years will keep it alive.
US Federal estimates of the commercial space industry – only a little of it involving tourism – exceed US$200 billion. Nasa is counting on private companies such as SpaceX and Orbital Sciences to haul cargo to the space station. They are also spending billions to help SpaceX and Boeing build ships that will eventually take people there, too.
The internet pioneers Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have got into the space game. Richard Branson, the British aviation entrepreneur, who is behind Virgin Galactic, and others are pushing a billion-dollar space tourism industry.
Some experts say they worry that private industry may just not be as safe as the government when it comes to going into space. Jerry Linenger, a former astronaut who narrowly survived a 1997 fire on the Russian space station Mir, says private industry lacks the experience and the advocates for safety that Nasa had when he was launching into space. He points to the former moonwalking astronaut John Young, who Nasa encouraged to raise safety issues and slow things down.
Watching the Orbital Sciences accident last Tuesday, Mr Linenger said, “it was blatantly obvious that it is a dangerous operation that is very nearly on the edge” yet private companies talk of doing it better, faster and cheaper. Then they find out that was naive, he said.
The American University space policy professor Howard McCurdy, who wrote the book Space and the American Imagination, says private companies tout lean management to get things done faster, better and cheaper in space. But he says that leaves no margin for error and "is like flying an airplane without a qualified pilot".
“You really need to do it right.”
He points to all the Silicon Valley whizzkids in space and fears that they come with the same Microsoft attitude of pushing a product out and fixing it on the fly. “I’m not sure that works for rocket ships,” Mr McCurdy says. “That may work for cellphones, smartphones and computer programs.” With space, he says, “you’re working much closer to the edge”.
Mr Logsdon says he would not fly on commercial space flights at the moment but Mr Stern, a Virgin Galactic customersays, he has no qualms about it. “Let’s not be Chicken Littles,” he adds.
Mr McCurdy says the private space industry seems to be having the same growing pains and failures Nasa and the military had when the first astronauts watched a rocket blow up in front of them.
Roger Launius, an associate director of the National Air and Space Museum wonders if the public will support private efforts despite the visible failures and whether the for-profit companies can tolerate the risk that comes with space and accidents.
For Mr Stern there is one overriding attraction.
“I want to be part of the opening of this future frontier,” the former associate administrator of Nasa says. “I want to make that better future a reality.
“No frontier has been one without the risk of life and limb,” he adds. “I stand with the brave pioneers of space who do this for all mankind.”
Marco Caceres, director of space studies for Fairfax, Virginia-based consultant Teal Group, warns the human and finacial cost of such an endevour will only increase.
“There is a price to be paid for a whole new era of a very complex and risky business,” he says. “A lot of money is going to be lost and people are going to die. If you want to develop this industry any time soon, you have to take some risks, and that means flying a lot.”
Mr Branson said last month Virgin Galactic was targeting its first commercial flight in spring 2015, with the billionaire and his son to be aboard for the initial launch. That reflected a change from his initial timetable for operations this year. He said at the time almost 800 would-be space tourists had signed up for $250,000 trips.
Virgin Galactic plans to operate commercial flights from Spaceport America in New Mexico, and sent the WhiteKnightTwo there last month to help crews familiarise themselves with local airspace, practice landings and diversions, and simulate launches.
The programme has suffered numerous setbacks, with three people working for Scaled Composites killed in an explosion in 2007.
Following Friday’s crash, Sir Mr Branson said Virgin “would not push on blindly” and instead would evaluate the lessons of the crash before proceeding.
“To do so would be an insult to all those affected by this tragedy,” he said. “We are going to learn from what went wrong, discover how we can improve safety and performance, and then move forward together.”
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