The exorbitant levels of clients’ margin accounts among US brokers and last year’s astronomical inflows into high-yield bond funds are the direct result of the excess of money and liquidity that politicians decided to inject into the system after the 2008-09 crisis.
The proliferation of these signs of excess pushed the US Federal Reserve a year ago to become more realistic – that is, to communicate its intention to remove its extreme monetary policy.
The Fed has acted on its word by reducing its quantitative easing programme (QE). It will continue this process even if the economy does not take off as expected. The cycle of liquidity of the US dollar has also definitely entered a deceleration phase as risk management becomes critical to the Fed chair, Janet Yellen.
In China, state reflation and subsidies to non-performing economic sectors, as well as the quasi-endemic excesses of cheap credit for many years, have produced perverse effects. Indexes of speculation in property are obvious, along with the explosion of the carry trade of domestic institutions taking advantage of the strength and the low volatility of the yuan.
The People’s Bank of China has finally decided to control and regulate all financing channels – that is, to curb shadow banking. As a result, growth is slowing in parallel with the gradual normalisation of interest rates, which feeds political and social tensions. The bankruptcies, of reasonable size, will multiply and will further be tolerated by China’s leaders. Market forces, and sometimes ruthless capitalistic rules, now infiltrate deep into the country’s economic and financial framework.
The incredible wave of liquidity that large countries have synchronously dumped is beginning to gradually change in nature. Some are reassured by the fact that Japan is now accelerating its QE and that the European Central Bank will shyly follow through in the summer. But the transmission channels of euro and yen flows are very different from those of the dollar. Similarly, a weak dollar (courtesy of QE) normally fuels rising prices of raw materials, while a weak yen mainly creates deflationary pressures in the country or area directly competing for exports.
Granted, liquidity is not homogeneous, and its currency source also spells very different impacts on assets. The most recent large dispersion in performance between sectors and countries such as the US and Japan in the first quarter reflects these mutations. Liquidity injections, meanwhile, will remain tame in the future.
The ECB chief, Mario Draghi, has brilliantly managed to seduce and convince investors of his determination and ability of potential action. His style, his voluntarism and his creativity have done wonders to reduce the cost of credit in the euro area, assuage Berlin and deliver and perform almost nothing in terms of extreme politics. The return of Greece to the markets with its issuance of €3 billion is a case in point.
But the day of reckoning is approaching, with markets continuing to push the euro up. The process of European banks’ stress test and the subsequent recapitalisation that will take place this fall are tying the ECB’s hands for now.
We anticipate a regime change in currencies – that is, upcoming turbulences linked to desynchronised liquidity cycles. European sovereign bonds could also experience profit-taking as soon as the ECB’s QE approaches, especially if the euro were to weaken quickly. It seems like the risks of a policy error are clearly increasing.
Philippe Schindler is the chief investment officer at Blue Lakes Advisors, a Swiss company that advises financial institutions in Europe and the Middle East
Follow us on Twitter @Ind_Insights
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
THE BIO:
Favourite holiday destination: Thailand. I go every year and I’m obsessed with the fitness camps there.
Favourite book: Born to Run by Christopher McDougall. It’s an amazing story about barefoot running.
Favourite film: A League of their Own. I used to love watching it in my granny’s house when I was seven.
Personal motto: Believe it and you can achieve it.
Company%20Profile
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UNSC Elections 2022-23
Seats open:
- Two for Africa Group
- One for Asia-Pacific Group (traditionally Arab state or Tunisia)
- One for Latin America and Caribbean Group
- One for Eastern Europe Group
Countries so far running:
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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THE%20SPECS
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
Roll of honour: Who won what in 2018/19?
West Asia Premiership: Winners – Bahrain; Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership: Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins; Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens: Winners – Dubai Hurricanes; Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference: Winners – Dubai Tigers; Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers
The%20Specs
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fasset%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mohammad%20Raafi%20Hossain%2C%20Daniel%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.45%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2086%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-series%20B%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Investcorp%2C%20Liberty%20City%20Ventures%2C%20Fatima%20Gobi%20Ventures%2C%20Primal%20Capital%2C%20Wealthwell%20Ventures%2C%20FHS%20Capital%2C%20VN2%20Capital%2C%20local%20family%20offices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20Mother%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Niki%20Caro%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jennifer%20Lopez%2C%20Joseph%20Fiennes%2C%20Gael%20Garcia%20Bernal%2C%20Omari%20Hardwick%20and%20Lucy%20Paez%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)