Iran's list of 29 companies qualified to bid for its upstream tenders contains just one "American" company, Schlumberger, the world's largest oilfield services firm.
It is a bold gamble by Schlumberger on many levels, not least because of the uncertainty about how the new Donald Trump White House will view future dealings with Iran.
During much of the presidential campaign, president-elect Trump was highly critical of the deal struck by the Barack Obama administration to restrict Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for allowing it to export crude oil freely and begin to attract companies back to the country to help rehabilitate its ailing industry.
As with many issues, Mr Trump's views have subsequently been all over the place on Iran and it is not clear who will have his ear and what advice he might be getting. Will his proposed defence secretary, James "Mad Dog" Mattis, who has made hawkish remarks on Iran, hold sway? Or might Rex Tillerson, the former ExxonMobil chief executive who is Trump's pick for secretary of state, argue for maintaining the status quo with Iran and push for US companies to compete for a slice of Iran's business?
Schlumberger, despite being hit with a US$233 million fine for breaching Iran (and Sudan) sanctions the year before last, was the first and so far only company headquartered in the US to agree in principle to deal with Iran, to work in the country's Khouzestan province.
The Iranian list has none of the US majors, such as Exxon Mobil or Chevron, and BP – which is London-headquartered, but majority-owned by US shareholders, NYSE listed, and with a large portion of its operations there – has explicitly ruled itself out of Iran for now.
Indeed, while Royal Dutch/Shell – which is on Iran’s qualified companies list – is not an American company, like BP it has huge financial and operational exposure to the US and would be taking as much of a chance in Iran as Schlumberger.
Schlumberger may still think of itself as not quite American. Though its top executives, including its chief executive Paal Kibsgaard, operate out of its headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas (near Houston), and it is NYSE listed, Schlumberger is technically incorporated in Curaçao, Netherlands Antilles, and its origins are European. “Schlumberger does not have a ‘nationality’ that describes its culture, but operates in a truly global fashion throughout the world,” the company says of itself.
Still, neither it nor Shell nor any other company with substantial US exposure would want to risk sanctions if the Trump administration takes a hard line.
Curiously, Shell last year cut back in Iraq and has been rumoured to be looking to sell down assets further there. It also pulled out of a gas deal in Abu Dhabi and has ruled itself out of bidding for the major onshore oil concession there, driven partly by the fact it is going through a $30 billion asset sale as part of its integration with BG.
A move into Iran by Shell – as well as Schlumberger – would be a major statement of intent, especially if the sanctions status is still in limbo.
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Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
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Results
5pm: Warsan Lake – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m; Winner: Dhaw Al Reef, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Al Quadra Lake – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Mrouwah Al Gharbia, Sando Paiva, Abubakar Daud
6pm: Hatta Lake – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: AF Yatroq, George Buckell, Ernst Oertel
6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Adries de Vries, Ibrahim Aseel
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship – Listed (PA) Dh180,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Zakher Lake – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Alfareeq, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi.
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.