China may account for 40 per cent of this year's expected rebound in oil consumption and nearly 45 per cent of oil demand growth in the next five years, the latest monthly oil market report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests.
Total oil demand in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, could reach 9.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, an 8.5 per cent increase from last year's level, predicted the IEA, which advises 28 industrialised countries on energy issues.
In its report, the IEA touched on three potentially "game-changing" events and trends that could have lasting effects on global oil markets: the robust rise in Chinese oil consumption, the European debt crisis and the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Of those, Chinese oil consumption was the most likely to have a profound effect on the future balance of supply and demand.
The IEA said it would compare two scenarios for global GDP growth that could have "very different" implications for oil market balances in its coming medium-term outlook. But a "common thread" would be the strength of oil demand in developing countries and the "predominance" of China.
"China's urgent need for energy supply to sustain economic growth and raise the well-being of its people has become a global market issue," the IEA said.
"At the same time, China's domestic oil production base faces the challenge of large mature assets and with demand set to continue rising rapidly, China will remain reliant on the international oil market to meet incremental oil needs." Most of that oil would come from "a small number of countries" led by Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iran and Russia.
China's government-controlled oil companies emerged as "a significant force" in global mergers and acquisitions activity last year, spending US$18.2 billion (Dh66.84bn) on deals around the world, the agency reported.
That accounted for 13 per cent of total global acquisitions, the IEA estimated.
Two of the Chinese companies, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Sinopec, were also involved in 11 loan-for-oil deals with eight countries, worth a combined $77bn.
Those companies and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) also entered into contracts committing them to invest a further $18bn, mostly in Iraq and Iran. The Chinese companies spent $10.9bn in the first four months of this year, with Sinopec buying 9 per cent of Canada's biggest oil sands operator Syncrude, CNPC joining Royal Dutch Shell to acquire the Australian coal-bed methane specialist Arrow Energy, and CNOOC purchasing 50 per cent of the Argentinean oil producer Bridas.
"Chinese oil companies are now operating in the upstream sector of 31 countries and have equity production in 20," the IEA said.
The biggest concentrations of investment were in Kazakhstan, Sudan, Venezuela and Angola.
In the 2010 edition of its Statistical Review of World Energy, released on Wednesday, BP noted an 8.7 per cent increase in total Chinese energy consumption last year, offsetting a record 5 per cent decline for members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Energy consumption worldwide fell by 1.1 per cent last year, BP reported.
China's oil consumption, which is the world's second largest after that of the US, increased by 6.7 per cent to 8.6 million bpd despite the economic downturn, the latest BP data show.
But not everyone is convinced the growth is sustainable. Forecasters were not taking into account Beijing's determination to curb China's appetite for oil, said Fereidun Fesharaki, the chief executive of the Singaporean consultancy FACTS Global Energy.
The IEA said fuel subsidies were underpinning strong oil demand in developing countries. Subsidies artificially bolster demand by masking market signals that should encourage consumers to use energy less wastefully when international prices rise.
After the downturn, most governments are finding the cost of fuel subsidies more burdensome than previously, which could lead to their gradual reduction. That is already happening in China.
tcarlisle@thenational.ae
Company%20Profile
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Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
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Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Two-step truce
The UN-brokered ceasefire deal for Hodeidah will be implemented in two stages, with the first to be completed before the New Year begins, according to the Arab Coalition supporting the Yemeni government.
By midnight on December 31, the Houthi rebels will have to withdraw from the ports of Hodeidah, Ras Issa and Al Saqef, coalition officials told The National.
The second stage will be the complete withdrawal of all pro-government forces and rebels from Hodeidah city, to be completed by midnight on January 7.
The process is to be overseen by a Redeployment Co-ordination Committee (RCC) comprising UN monitors and representatives of the government and the rebels.
The agreement also calls the deployment of UN-supervised neutral forces in the city and the establishment of humanitarian corridors to ensure distribution of aid across the country.
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014%20PRO%20MAX
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The%20specs
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
Anna and the Apocalypse
Director: John McPhail
Starring: Ella Hunt, Malcolm Cumming, Mark Benton
Three stars
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
MORE ON THE US DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier, in Bangkok
UAE fixtures Mon Nov 20, v China; Tue Nov 21, v Thailand; Thu Nov 23, v Nepal; Fri Nov 24, v Hong Kong; Sun Nov 26, v Malaysia; Mon Nov 27, Final
(The winners will progress to the Global Qualifier)
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents