The world’s second-largest economy grew by 6.7 per cent in the three months ending in September compared with a year earlier, data showed on Wednesday. That was in line with the two previous quarters and better than some forecasters expected.
“Economic activity seems to be holding up reasonably well, with few signs that a renewed slowdown is just around the corner,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics in a report.
Still, analysts cautioned growth is likely to slow next year because the latest strength is based in part on a surge in bank lending and real estate prices – both of which regulators see as a risk and are trying to restrain.
China’s economy has cooled steadily over the past six years as communist leaders try to steer it to more self-sustaining growth based on consumer spending instead of trade and investment.
An unexpectedly sharp slowdown over the past two years prompted fears of politically dangerous job losses. Beijing launched mini-stimulus measures with higher spending on construction of highways and other public works.
Exports have contracted this year due to weak global demand but retail sales, especially e-commerce, are growing faster than the overall economy.
Retail sales rose 10.4 per cent in the first three quarters, up 0.1 percentage point from the first half, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Growth in service industries overall, boosted by a surge in real estate sales, accelerated to 7.5 per cent from the previous quarter’s 7.8 per cent.
By contrast, exports shrank by 5.6 per cent in September from a year earlier.
“Third-quarter data signalled that economic growth has stabilised at a healthy pace, and that China’s transition from a high-speed, heavy industry-based economy to a moderately-fast consumer and services-based economy is well under way,” said Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia in a report.
“The challenges of completing this transition will result in gradually slower growth rates and increased volatility, but the risks of a hard landing are very low.”
State media have warned China’s economic outlook will be “L-shaped,” meaning the downturn should bottom out but growth will not rebound to the double-digit rates of the past decade.
Repeated infusions of credit to prop up growth since the 2008 global crisis has led to a rapid run-up in China’s debt to the equivalent of 250 per cent of GDP. That has prompted warnings the country could face a financial crisis if debt growth isn’t controlled.
The central bank’s measure of total credit showed growth in September edged up to 11.3 per cent compared with a year earlier, up from August’s 11.2 per cent rate.
“The recent recovery is ultimately on borrowed time given that it has been driven in large part by faster credit growth and a property market boom,” said Mr Evans-Pritchard. “As the boost from policy stimulus begins to wear off, probably at some point early next year, continued structural drags mean the economy is set to begin slowing again.”
* Associated Press
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
SPECS
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
The%20specs
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The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
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The biog
First Job: Abu Dhabi Department of Petroleum in 1974
Current role: Chairperson of Al Maskari Holding since 2008
Career high: Regularly cited on Forbes list of 100 most powerful Arab Businesswomen
Achievement: Helped establish Al Maskari Medical Centre in 1969 in Abu Dhabi’s Western Region
Future plan: Will now concentrate on her charitable work
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
RESULTS
Manchester United 2
Anthony Martial 30'
Scott McTominay 90 6'
Manchester City 0