Chaos over Iraq's oilfields spills over



It is business as usual in Iraq's chaotic oil patch, with prospective deals inflaming a conflict between the country's parliament and its oil minister. The ministry has also released conflicting information on a high-profile auction of licences and Iraqi Kurds have suspended crude exports from their semiautonomous northern enclave.

No sooner had Baghdad announced that three teams of foreign energy firms had agreed to the ministry's tough terms for developing two of Iraq's biggest oilfields, than the Iraqi parliament summoned the oil minister for another grilling over his handling of Iraqi oil wealth. The minister, Dr Hussain al Shahristani, would face questioning on October 27, said Jabir Khalifa Jabir, a member of the parliament's oil and gas committee.

Analysts said the minister, who is a key supporter of the Iraqi prime minister Nouri al Maliki, could also face a vote of confidence as preparations are under way for national elections in January. Dr al Shahristani said yesterday a consortium led by Italy's Eni had agreed to Baghdad's offer of US$2 (Dh7.34) a barrel to lift output from the Zubair oilfield in southern Iraq to 1.125 million barrels per day (bpd) from about 227,000 bpd within six years. He said two competing teams, led respectively by the US oil company ExxonMobil and Russia's Lukoil, were willing to accept $1.90 a barrel for raising production from the West Qurna field.

Long-term contracts to develop the two oilfields, each containing billions of barrels of reserves, were among those snubbed in June by foreign oil firms at Iraq's first post-war auction of oil and gas licences, after most participants baulked at the government's tough terms. Only one contract emerged from the bidding round, after Britain's BP and China National Petroleum Corporation agreed to halve the payment they wanted for increasing output from Iraq's biggest oilfield, Rumaila.

Dr al Shahristani nonetheless claimed the bidding round was a success, because it had yielded an agreement that would enable the ministry to achieve its goal of raising Iraq's oil output to 4.5 million bpd by 2015 from about 2.5 million bpd and had been a model of transparency. But now, parliamentarians are reviving their previous objections to direct negotiations between the ministry and foreign oil companies and to any contracts for foreign firms to work on fields already producing oil.

"After a major effort from the oil ministry, our price was accepted," Dr al Shahristani said yesterday in reference to the negotiations over West Qurna. "Iraq has an opportunity to go ahead and sign this contract with Iraqi conditions." But Paolo Scaroni, the Eni chief executive, said that as far as the Zubair agreement was concerned, some as yet unspecified elements of the deal had been sweetened considerably to compensate for the lower per barrel remuneration. "You cannot compare the $2 today to the $4.80 (sought) two months ago," he said.

That could make it difficult for Dr al Shahristani and Mr al Maliki to sell the politically charged contracts to a hostile parliament, said Samuel Ciszuk, the Middle East energy analyst at the consulting firm IHS Global Insight. The contracts would need to be ratified by an "increasingly moribund" Iraqi cabinet, he added. But Dr al Shahristani is pulling out all stops to ensure his oil development programme unfurls swiftly in the months leading up to the election. A second bidding round is scheduled for December, the ministry said yesterday, after announcing on Tuesday that it would be postponed for a month.

Dr al Shahristani told reporters yesterday that Baghdad was now aiming to raise Iraq's crude output to between 10 million and 12 million bpd within six years, more than doubling its previous target. One conflict that is unlikely to be resolved soon, however, is Baghdad's protracted dispute with the Kurds over territory and resource jurisdiction, which has already stalled for two years the passage of a crucial federal oil law for Iraq.

Yesterday, the Kurdistan regional government said Kurdish oil exports had been halted because the foreign companies pumping the oil had not been paid. "Oil exports from Kurdistan's fields have been stopped until an agreement is reached with the Iraqi oil ministry for mechanisms to pay the dues of the oil companies working in the region," said Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdish natural resources minister. According to Mr Ciszuk, Baghdad has responded by disqualifying China's Sinopec from participating in the Zubair development consortium over its recent agreement to purchase Addax Petroleum, one of the companies producing Kurdish oil.

@Email:tcarlisle@thenational.ae

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How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?

If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.

Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.

Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.

Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).

Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal. 

Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.

By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.

As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.

Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.

He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.” 

This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”

Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.

Frida%20
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The specs

Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo

Power: 435hp at 5,900rpm

Torque: 520Nm at 1,800-5,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Price: from Dh498,542

On sale: now

Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha

Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar

Director: Neeraj Pandey

Rating: 2.5/5

The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz S 450

Price, base / as tested Dh525,000 / Dh559,000

Engine: 3.0L V6 biturbo

Transmission: Nine-speed automatic

Power: 369hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 500Nm at 1,800rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 8.0L / 100km

What should do investors do now?

What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor? 

Should I be euphoric?

No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.

So what happened?

It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.

"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."

Should I buy? Should I sell?

Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.

"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.

All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.

Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.

Will the rally last?

No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.

"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."

THE BIO

Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979

Education: UAE University, Al Ain

Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6

Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma

Favourite book: Science and geology

Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC

Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.

Jigra
Director: Vasan Bala
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Rated: 3.5/5
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The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Selected fixtures

All times UAE

Wednesday
Poland v Portugal 10.45pm
Russia v Sweden 10.45pm

Friday
Belgium v Switzerland 10.45pm
Croatia v England 10.45pm

Saturday
Netherlands v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Denmark 10.45pm

Sunday
Poland v Italy 10.45pm

Monday
Spain v England 10.45pm

Tuesday
France v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Wales 10.45pm