From left, Dmitry Medvedev, the president of Russia, Manmohan Singh, the prime minister of India, and Hu Jintao, the president of China, at the Brics summit in New Delhi, last week. Saurabh Das / AP Photo
From left, Dmitry Medvedev, the president of Russia, Manmohan Singh, the prime minister of India, and Hu Jintao, the president of China, at the Brics summit in New Delhi, last week. Saurabh Das / AP PShow more

Brics not quite as safe as houses



They are already forecast to overtake the developed world in economic terms in 2017.

Now the Brics nations, the fast-growing grouping of Brazil, Russia, India and China, with South Africa added as a strategic afterthought, seem to want political power to match their vast industrial and financial potential.

Last week in New Delhi, representatives of the five countries met in the Indian capital, the fourth "Brics summit" aimed at fostering greater policymaking co-ordination between them.

Some observers noticed an increasing unanimity of opinion among leaders of the new rich countries. They made it clear that the old, western-led way of doing things was in the past and the Brics blueprint was the future.

So, amid the standard summit rhetoric of calls for sharing of global power and the need to avoid a new war in the Gulf with Iran, there were also specific items of policy presenting a challenge to the West.

These included demands for a greater say by the Brics in the dealings of the IMF and World Bank, and a plan for the group to set up its own development bank.

The aftermath of the financial crisis has led to a stiffening of views in the organisation.

"The crisis started in the developed world, it will not be overcome through measures of austerity, fiscal consolidations and depreciation of labour, let alone through quantitative easing policies that can only be described as a monetary tsunami," said Dilma Rousseff, the president of Brazil,

The Brics obviously believe there is a new bipolarity in the world, between the fast-growing economies, mainly in the east, and the old economic regimes of Europe and North America, still struggling with the apparently interminable effects of financial crisis.

Where does the Middle East fit into this new world order? Opinions differ according to experts.

"None of the GCC countries on their own can become Bric nations; maybe if [they] became more unified they might be eligible for 'fast-growing' status. But Egypt and Iran are the only ones in the region with potential at the moment," said Jim O'Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist credited with inventing the Bric concept - although he did not include South Africa and still believes it should not be included in the taxonomy - on a recent trip to the Gulf.

Other economists view the Middle East as a crucial element. Stephen King, the head of global economics at HSBC, last year pointed out the region was going to figure as a central link in the new "southern silk road" that would see world trade flows increasing between China, India, the Middle East, Africa and south America. The Gulf would be a key link in this new pattern of commerce.

Mr O'Neill, while downplaying the importance of the region, still thought trading and financial hubs such as Dubai could be "capital cities" servicing the fast-growing parts of the world.

As the creator of the Bric idea, Mr O'Neill deserves to be listened to in any assessment of whether the new economic grouping will take on additional political powers.

"I think its tough for them to be a decisive political club," he said about the original members. "Two are democracies [he does not include Russia in that category after the disputed parliamentary and presidential elections], two are not; two are commodity producers, two are not; China is so big and so oriented towards domestic policy I don't think it's interested in the others that much."

There are also big discrepancies in basic economic criteria among the four original Bric countries. China's GDP is bigger than the three others combined; its growth rates for the past two decades have been better, often by several percentage points than the others.

When it comes to personal wealth and the power of domestic consumers, a different picture emerges. Mr O'Neill calculates per capita income in Brazil and Russia as about the same - US$15,000 (Dh55,000) per year, bigger than China's $5,000 to $6,000 and dwarfing India's $2,000.

One of the few factors that unifies them is not one they would wish to highlight: the fact that all their GDP growth forecasts have fallen in recent months. If South Africa is included, the range of disparities is significantly increased. It is below Saudi Arabia - the biggest economic power in the GDP tables - and well off the crucial 1 per cent of GDP Mr O'Neill regards as the criteria for members of the fast growth club.

The experience of the EU and the euro zone would appear to argue against creating political unity from such divergent economies. There are other divisions between them that militate against further political integration. Three of the Brics - Russia, China and India - have been involved in serious border disputes in recent years. In particular, Russia and China are competing over influence in central Asia, where much of the world's reserves of energy and essential commodities are located.

These conflicting interests showed through at the New Delhi summit. While their policymakers were able to unite around calls for some pretty far-reaching reforms at the IMF, they were unable to reach agreement on a possible rival candidate for the post of head of the World Bank.

So it's unlikely there will be a United States of Brics any time soon; and even less likely the Middle East will be a part of it.

But noisy calls for political influence by the group are further confirmation of the tilt in economic power from west to east - and the Middle East is at the fulcrum.

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Need to know

The flights: Flydubai flies from Dubai to Kilimanjaro airport via Dar es Salaam from Dh1,619 return including taxes. The trip takes 8 hours. 

The trek: Make sure that whatever tour company you select to climb Kilimanjaro, that it is a reputable one. The way to climb successfully would be with experienced guides and porters, from a company committed to quality, safety and an ethical approach to the mountain and its staff. Sonia Nazareth booked a VIP package through Safari Africa. The tour works out to $4,775 (Dh17,538) per person, based on a 4-person booking scheme, for 9 nights on the mountain (including one night before and after the trek at Arusha). The price includes all meals, a head guide, an assistant guide for every 2 trekkers, porters to carry the luggage, a cook and kitchen staff, a dining and mess tent, a sleeping tent set up for 2 persons, a chemical toilet and park entrance fees. The tiny ration of heated water provided for our bath in our makeshift private bathroom stall was the greatest luxury. A standard package, also based on a 4-person booking, works out to $3,050 (Dh11,202) per person.

When to go: You can climb Kili at any time of year, but the best months to ascend  are  January-February and September-October.  Also good are July and August, if you’re tolerant of the colder weather that winter brings.

Do not underestimate the importance of kit. Even if you’re travelling at a relatively pleasant time, be geared up for the cold and the rain.

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The Perfect Couple

Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor

Creator: Jenna Lamia

Rating: 3/5

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