This column recently covered the challenges of managing negative cash flows. Breaking through the cash flow break-even barrier is a completely different matter. Start-ups seem to reach this point and never leave it, a gravitational black hole. Understanding this statistical anomaly requires a mix of finance and psychology.
The first issue is getting a better understanding of what cash flow break-even might mean. The conventional cash flow statement is formed from three main types of flow. Briefly, cash flow from operations is cash from the core business of producing and selling goods and services. Cash flow from investing is basically capital expenditure, buying and selling items such as property, equity and machinery, as well as long-term investments. The third type is from financing, such as selling equity in the company or getting a loan from a bank.
It is clear that the most important cash flow is from operations, as it tells you if the business is covering its cash from its core business. Looking at total cash flow, or how much cash is in the company’s bank account, distorts the picture, as an all-too-common mistake is to believe that cash flow from financing is a viable long-term option.
Even when focusing on operating cash flow, one cannot do so blindly. The working capital of the company, a measure of its short-term liquidity position, can also distort the picture. The usual method is by increasing accounts payable – delaying payments to suppliers – while holding accounts receivable steady – demanding that customers continue to pay in a relatively short time period.
The trap with playing this working capital game is two-fold. The first is that it only works for as long as the business is expanding quickly. Once this initial period ends, so do the benefits of this cash management hack. The second issue is that it upsets, to put it mildly, the suppliers.
Another trap that leads companies to fall into the break-even zone is misunderstanding the operating margin that relates to the income statement as opposed to cash flow, but there is still a strong connection. Operating margin is the ratio of profit to revenue, or more generally how much of each dirham in sales makes it to profit.
During the initial loss-making period, a start up will have a negative operating margin. As the operating margin improves and goes from negative to positive, the company becomes profitable and cash flow will usually improve commensurately. The problem can be clarified by understanding that operating margin can be decomposed into variable cost, fixed cost – buildings, IT systems, and executive management – and revenue.
As an example, consider a company with a Dh10 million fixed cost. This company also generates Dh1 for every Dh1 spent on variable cost. In the early stages of the start-up it might spend Dh1m in variable cost to generate Dh1m in revenue for a net loss of Dh10m and an operating margin of minus 10. The company spends more, say Dh10m, and therefore generates revenue of Dh10m, loss of Dh10m and operating margin of minus 1.
What a wonderful improvement in operating margin. But wait, what if the company spends Dh50m? Operating margin improves to minus 0.2 but still is not positive. Spend a billion? Operating margin is minus 0.01. No matter how much this company expands, it is driving margin improvements by expense expansion and will never become profitable. This tragedy, when it plays out in multinationals or even larger institutions, leads to billions being wasted chasing a financial mirage.
The psychological part of the analysis has to do with the human bias to overweight nearby risks over risks that are further out. Sometimes this bias is useful, but when the risks are interrelated it is can be extremely dangerous.
A race to cash flow break-even will usually lead to decisions that stop the company from being able to grow positive cash flow. A simple example is the above – a marginal profit of zero can be useful to reach cash flow break-even, but is useless in moving past it. Positive cash flow growth simply is not a linear extension of break-even.
Sabah Al Binali is an active investor and entrepreneurial leader. You can read more of his thoughts at al-binali.com
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
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What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Last 10 winners of African Footballer of the Year
2006: Didier Drogba (Chelsea and Ivory Coast)
2007: Frederic Kanoute (Sevilla and Mali)
2008: Emmanuel Adebayor (Arsenal and Togo)
2009: Didier Drogba (Chelsea and Ivory Coast)
2010: Samuel Eto’o (Inter Milan and Cameroon)
2011: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2012: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2013: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2014: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2015: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Borussia Dortmund and Gabon)
2016: Riyad Mahrez (Leicester City and Algeria)
SPECS
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Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
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UAE FIXTURES
October 18 – 7.30pm, UAE v Oman, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
October 19 – 7.30pm, UAE v Ireland, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
October 21 – 2.10pm, UAE v Hong Kong, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
October 22 – 2.10pm, UAE v Jersey, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
October 24 – 10am, UAE v Nigeria, Abu Dhabi Cricket Oval 1
October 27 – 7.30pm, UAE v Canada, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
October 29 – 2.10pm, Playoff 1 – A2 v B3; 7.30pm, Playoff 2 – A3 v B2, at Dubai International Stadium.
October 30 – 2.10pm, Playoff 3 – A4 v Loser of Play-off 1; 7.30pm, Playoff 4 – B4 v Loser of Play-off 2 at Dubai International Stadium
November 1 – 2.10pm, Semifinal 1 – B1 v Winner of Play-off 1; 7.30pm, Semifinal 2 – A1 v Winner of Play-off 2 at Dubai International Stadium
November 2 – 2.10pm, Third place Playoff – B1 v Winner of Play-off 1; 7.30pm, Final, at Dubai International Stadium
A new relationship with the old country
Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates
The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:
ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.
ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.
ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.
Signed
Geoffrey Arthur Sheikh Zayed
match info
Southampton 0
Arsenal 2 (Nketiah 20', Willock 87')
Red card: Jack Stephens (Southampton)
Man of the match: Rob Holding (Arsenal)
THE BIO
Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old
Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai
Favourite Book: The Alchemist
Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail
Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna
Favourite cuisine: Italian food
Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman
Kill%20Bill%20Volume%201
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The five pillars of Islam
Women & Power: A Manifesto
Mary Beard
Profile Books and London Review of Books
MATCH INFO
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10
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Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3